Tarasenko

[ultrawhiteness]

I agree with 4horsemen. Almost 40% of the top 50 scorers in recent yrs were top 5 picks. About 70% were drafted in the 1st round. Those #'s confirm that a forward outside of the top 5 is not as likely to be a top scorer (this isnt even a PPG Im talking about, its much worse for that). As Tarasenko wasnt in the top 5, odds are against him. As we should know, most draft picks do fail.

Russian factor though... he could easily have been top 10 or higher if he was a canadian playing major junior.

[DuklaNation]

Russian factor though... he could easily have been top 10 or higher if he was a canadian playing major junior.

Maybe, but he still needs to be top 5. The record for 6-10 of late has been brutal although I cant justify it beyond the statistical evidence.

[maxpey]

Maybe, but he still needs to be top 5. The record for 6-10 of late has been brutal although I cant justify it beyond the statistical evidence.

You have to be very careful with statistics. They are very useful to a point. Using the statistics that you and other have provided then yes I agree 100% that the chances of any player who is drafted past the top 5 and definitely past the 1st round have a small and very little chance of being impact fantasy hockey players. However, there are always players who buck this trend. Now that we have seen Tarasenko play at the WJC's and have many reports and experts saying great things there is much evidence to support the fact that he has a very good chance to be a big fantasy player.

To me, that is much more important than the position where he was drafted.

Many amazing players have been drafted in later rounds. just off the top of my head Mike Bossy was picked around 15th and so was Joe Sakic. Tarasenko BTW was picked 16th. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Enstrom 8th round, Henrik Lundqvist in the 7th round etc etc.

After doing more research some great players in the latter part of the 1st round have included Selanne, Iginla, Kopitar, Roberts, Hossa, Gonchar, MacInnis, Andreychuk, Naslund, Clarke, Tkachuk, Brodeur, Robinson, Goulet, Trottier, Claude Giroux, Palffy, Nieuwendyk, Perry, Mike Green etc etc etc.

As with anything using statistics they can be very useful, but you have to look at all the facts to get a complete picture.

[rtstr]

Makes no difference when he was drafted. Whether he was first overall of 50th overall, that holds absolutely no bearing on how he will DEVELOP as a player. Teams are drafting 17 and 18 year olds-- they become stars in their mid-20s. There are just as many exceptions to the rule as there is evidence that only top 5 picks become stars. He's obviously a way "better" prospect today then he was on his draft day, so I don't even see what the point of referring to that is. Personally, I'm just concerned with how he will be from this day forward, not with what people thought of him when he was drafted.

[maxpey]

Makes no difference when he was drafted. Whether he was first overall of 50th overall, that holds absolutely no bearing on how he will DEVELOP as a player. Teams are drafting 17 and 18 year olds-- they become stars in their mid-20s. There are just as many exceptions to the rule as there is evidence that only top 5 picks become stars. He's obviously a way "better" prospect today then he was on his draft day, so I don't even see what the point of referring to that is. Personally, I'm just concerned with how he will be from this day forward, not with what people thought of him when he was drafted.

Well said El Caballo, but it is definitely good to take draft position into account because the high draft picks were picked early for a reason. And these people are the experts who evaluate players for a living and can see them much more than any of us can.

I know some Fantasy owners who just load up on players who have been drafted very high even though they were not doing well. This has worked well for some as it may just take longer for some of these top picks to figure things out and start to produce.

All in all I just think you need to consider all the information you can get about a player so that you can make a fully informed decision.

Just for fun here is a list from NHL.com of draft pick steals.

Player Pick Year Drafted By
Jaroslav Halak 271st 2003 Montreal
Mark Streit 262nd 2004 Montreal
Pekka Rinne 258th 2004 Nashville
Dustin Byfuglien 245th 2003 Chicago
Dan McGillis 238th 1992 Detroit
Pavol Demitra 227th 1993 Ottawa
Vladimir Konstantinov 221st 1989 Detroit
Anson Carter 220th 1992 Quebec
Johan Hedberg 218th 1994 Philadelphia
Cristobal Huet 214th 2001 Los Angeles
Dave Taylor 210th 1975 Los Angeles
Dominik Hasek 207th 1983 Chicago
Henrik Lundqvist 205th 2000 New York Rangers
Joe Pavelski 205th 2003 San Jose
Sergei Kostitsyn 200th 2005 Montreal
Arturs Irbe 196th 1989 Minnesota
Brooks Laich 193rd 2001 Ottawa
Vladimir Malakhov 191st 1989 NY Islanders
Matt D'Agostini 190th 2005 Montreal
Ryane Clowe 175th 2001 San Jose
Trevor Letowski 174th 1996 Phoenix
Luc Robitaille 171st 1984 Los Angeles
Roman Cechmanek 171st 2000 Philadelphia
Theoren Fleury 166th 1987 Calgary
John-Michael Liles 159th 2000 Colorado
Peter Bondra 156th 1990 Washington
Doug Gilmour 134th 1982 St. Louis
Kris Versteeg 134th 2004 Boston
Kyle Wellwood 134th 2001 Toronto
Daniel Alfredsson 133rd 1994 Ottawa
Steve Larmer 120th 1980 Chicago
Brett Hull 117th 1984 Calgary
Johan Franzen 97th 2004 Detroit
Valtteri Filppula 95th 2002 Detroit
Jonathan Quick 72nd 2005 Los Angeles
Cal Clutterbuck 72nd 2006 Minnesota
Steve Mason 69th 2006 Columbus


And some undrafted talent as well.

Recent Undrafted Talent That Played in the NHL
Signed Player Year signed
By Last Amateur Club
Ed Belfour 1987 CHI University of North Dakota
Andy Delmore 1997 PHI Sarnia, OHL
Curtis Joseph 1989 STL University of Wisconsin
Mike Keane 1985 MTL Moose Jaw, WHL
John Madden 1997 N.J. University of Michigan
Brian Rafalski 1999 N.J. HIFK, Helsinki (FIN)
Martin St. Louis 1998 CGY University of Vermont
Todd Simpson 1994 CGY Saskatoon, WHL
Steve Thomas 1984 TOR Toronto, OHL


Enjoy.

[Big Ev]

There's a HUGE difference between late round steals who nobody has ever heard of as opposed to mid-1st round picks who fell from where they were supposed to be drafted.

[fungchen3]

Based on his skills, maturity and great reputation for being a highly coachable kid, if Tarasenko was North American (or non-Russian even) he would have been a top-5 pick.

[Big Ev]

Based on his skills, maturity and great reputation for being a highly coachable kid, if Tarasenko was North American (or non-Russian even) he would have been a top-5 pick.

I think that's pretty obvious. Mostly every team is scared of Russian prospects now, and for good reason. There has maybe been 1 good prospect since Malkin/Ovechkin (Radulov). I could definitely see a guy like this bolting for the KHL because they will need skilled players like him to keep the league alive.

[fungchen3]

I think that's pretty obvious. Mostly every team is scared of Russian prospects now, and for good reason. There has maybe been 1 good prospect since Malkin/Ovechkin (Radulov). I could definitely see a guy like this bolting for the KHL because they will need skilled players like him to keep the league alive.

This is true. But, if Tarasenko puts it together and is a career NHLer, he could easily end up the 3rd best scorer taken in the draft (behind Hall and Skinner). I've never been sold on Seguin as a lights-out stud mind you. The thing I worry most about Tarasenko are injuries because of the robust style he plays.

[SeaDawg]

Tarasenko will be a star IN THE NHL...book it.

But I do find it interesting that the Russian factor is so huge. It really has been a while since a young Russian has joined the NHL and become a star. But with Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Burmistrov, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Grigorenko coming along, we should see some Russian stars in the NHL once again. And I haven't written off Filatov yet and there are a few others I have my eye on.

[rtstr]

Tarasenko will be a star IN THE NHL...book it.

But I do find it interesting that the Russian factor is so huge. It really has been a while since a young Russian has joined the NHL and become a star. But with Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Burmistrov, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Grigorenko coming along, we should see some Russian stars in the NHL once again. And I haven't written off Filatov yet and there are a few others I have my eye on.

SeaDawg... what are your thoughts on Burmistrov? I feel like he doesn't get enough hype-- i think he could be awesome, definite buy-low for now

[SeaDawg]

SeaDawg... what are your thoughts on Burmistrov? I feel like he doesn't get enough hype-- i think he could be awesome, definite buy-low for now

I like Burmistrov...I watched him quite a bit the year he played for Barrie and I've watched a handful of Atlanta games this year. He will be a solid NHLer; heck, he already is. Not many 18 year olds can play a regular shift in the NHL. Burmistrov is a very good 2-way type of player with somewhat limited offensive upside. He is skilled, but a bit undersized and because he has such a defensive conscience I don't see him putting up numbers beyond 70-75 pts in his prime. Still, that is a solid player.

A lot of Russians get compared to Datsyuk, but in Burmistrov's case I think the comparison is justified in that they are the same size, play a solid 2-way game, are more set-up guys than shooters, and they can both dangle. Of course Datsyuk is the best dangler in the universe and Burmistrov will never be that good nor have the offensive upside that Datsyuk does. But, Burmistrov is definitely a Datsyuk-lite, in my opinion. If you can acquire him expecting him to become a 70-75 pt player in 3 or 4 years, you won't be disappointed. Give him time to develop though. Even Datsyuk took 3 or 4 years to get over 70 pts.

[DuklaNation]

I would caution comparing to Datsyuk who is freakishly very strong for his size.

[SeaDawg]

I would caution comparing to Datsyuk who is freakishly very strong for his size.

I agree with that statement also. Datsyuk, for his size, is quite strong and can protect the puck very well. That helps him in his defensive game and also is partly why he can dangle so well. I don't want to suggest that Burmistrov is like Datsyuk in every conceivable way. Burmistrov is only like Datsyuk in terms of their style of play, size, and defensive awareness. Burmistrov is not as crafty as Datsyuk, not as strong as Datsyuk, and does not have the offensive ceiling of Datsyuk.

It is unfair comparing anyone to Datsyuk and I'm not doing that to build up expectations for Burmistrov. I'm simply trying to explain how there are some similarities between the two players.

[fungchen3]

Datsyuk is a freak, period. Stong, skilled, smart, ice water veins, creative. Dude is one of the best multi-tool forward packages in a long time.