Fantasy Mailbag - November 29

[GoalieGuild]

Here you go boys and girls!!!

School of Block discusses Rick DiPietro, Semyon Varlamov and Corey Crawford!

Keep your eye out for Martin Gerber as a quiet 3rd or 4th goalie to own this week, I am still harvesting hope for Mike Smith despite the schlacking by Washington. I'll be scouting the Avs / Thrashers game on Tuesday and hoping for a good game there and then it will be time to get the Top-100 Prospects Rankings and NHL Depth Charts updated by this time next week!

[reeveta]

I would love to hear your thoughts on the LA situation for Bernier. Quick has been great so far this year but LA has still been given Bernier a fair amount of starts in spite of some unimpressive numbers.
Do they continue to play Bernier once every four games or so? Do they start to ride Quick more? Is this helping or hurint Bernier's development? Does he need more time in the AHL?

[GoalieGuild]

I would love to hear your thoughts on the LA situation for Bernier. Quick has been great so far this year but LA has still been given Bernier a fair amount of starts in spite of some unimpressive numbers.
Do they continue to play Bernier once every four games or so? Do they start to ride Quick more? Is this helping or hurint Bernier's development? Does he need more time in the AHL?

The process will continue with Bernier's workload. Remember the key here is that LA does not want Quick playing 70 games and getting burnt out before the playoffs roll around. The only way Quick will be primed for the post-season is if he gets some consistent and steady rest in November, December and January. So yes, I expect Bernier to continue to play once every 4-5 games, depending on the schedule. He will have the chance to play his way into more games depending on how he performs and how Quick performs, but I don't see anything drastic happening in the short-term.

This is not hurting Bernier's development. He has dominated the AHL and has nothing to prove down there. Every game in the NHL is a learning experience, regardless of the outcome. The tough losses he experiences only gives him thicker skin. Think of what Gustavsson went through last season as he continued to adjust to the speed and pace of NHL games. Bad stats, bad outings, tough one-goal losses. But this year, especially with Giguere on the bench, you have seen Gustavsson show a lot of skill and mental toughness and was pretty much the Leafs' best player last two weeks.

From a fantasy perspective it has been disappointing for his owners, and I have not been accurate in my prediction that he would own. But in a real-time perspective, none of this really influences his long-term potential in my mind. Tough losses and some conflict early is healthy for a solid prospect and it is what it is.

If there's one thing I think Bernier needs to do to improve his game, it would be activating off his posts a little more and showing some active hands. He is kind of like how Carey Price was last year ... almost too complacent. He needs to move his feet a little more and show some desperation. Otherwise, Bernier is still a badass hehe

[Carcillo]

Can you take a look at your crystal ball and tell me how the Ottawa Senators goalie situation will play out for the remainder of the season (let's assume for a moment that Leclaire somehow manages to stay relatively healthy).

Thanks

[dyzfunctioned]

Steve Mason. Tell me what's in store for him, please!

About to make a big trade for him and I could use some good news, Kipper isn't having the greatest season for me so far so I don't want another guy sucking for me

[Ron Burgundy]

Justin - thanks as always for doing this.

2 questions for you:

1. Still not much in the good news column on Pickard and I'm guessing he will be in for another fall down your rankings in December. Time to cut bait? Or put another way, would you drop him if there were guys significantly higher than him on the ranking list that were available?

2. Do you think Oliver Roy is/will be capable of being an NHL starter? I don't like DD all that much, and it seems to me the Oilers don't like JDD, and obviously neither Khabibulin nor Gerber are the long-term answer. In my mind all of that means that if Roy's got the goods he could have an opportunity waiting for him in the next couple of years.

[GoalieGuild]

Can you take a look at your crystal ball and tell me how the Ottawa Senators goalie situation will play out for the remainder of the season (let's assume for a moment that Leclaire somehow manages to stay relatively healthy).

Thanks

If Leclaire were to stay healthy, both goalies would experience strong and weak streaks. Brian Elliott is getting more consistent and learning how to bounce back from losses. He will still end up playing more games from now until the rest of the season. The chances that Leclaire stays healthy for the rest of the season is maybe ~25%. He is simply not durable enough to handle the rigors of a heavy workload on this Ottawa team.

Brian Elliott continues to improve hidden beneath the surface of a reputation for being average. He might not have elite skills in certain areas, but that shouldn't take away from his ability to win games. He's much mentally tougher than 90% of people believe. He should be treated with a little more value than you might think!

[GoalieGuild]

Steve Mason. Tell me what's in store for him, please!

About to make a big trade for him and I could use some good news, Kipper isn't having the greatest season for me so far so I don't want another guy sucking for me

Slowly but surely, Mason is developing thicker skin and learning how to prepare mentally for games. I am very confident that the more time Mason spends working with Garon, the better he is getting at areas such as game management, mental toughness and rebound control.

Stats aside, which I feel aren't totally indicative of his solid play, Mason is maturing at a steady rate. There's less volatility to his game, he's becoming more consistent in the way he handles shots and works away from games.

That 2.89 GAA will drop to around 2.75 over the coming weeks. That .913 save percentage is pretty decent, maybe he gets it up to .915 before the end of the calendar year.

I think what's in store is more of the same. A few wins, a few losses, but at least he's not all over the map. He's more likely to succeed as time goes on. Garon is the perfect backup for him, and because Garon is playing so well, it's a positive push to play at his best. I like what I'm seeing out of Mason and it's not happening quickly, but at least it's happening.

[4T2]

Can't believe I'm the first to bring him up. But what is your most recent take on the Bobrovsky situation. Is it time to sell high on him in fantasy circles? Or do you ride him out for the remainder of the year and sell him in the off-season (before the inevitable sophomore slump)?

[dyzfunctioned]

Slowly but surely, Mason is developing thicker skin and learning how to prepare mentally for games. I am very confident that the more time Mason spends working with Garon, the better he is getting at areas such as game management, mental toughness and rebound control.

Stats aside, which I feel aren't totally indicative of his solid play, Mason is maturing at a steady rate. There's less volatility to his game, he's becoming more consistent in the way he handles shots and works away from games.

That 2.89 GAA will drop to around 2.75 over the coming weeks. That .913 save percentage is pretty decent, maybe he gets it up to .915 before the end of the calendar year.

I think what's in store is more of the same. A few wins, a few losses, but at least he's not all over the map. He's more likely to succeed as time goes on. Garon is the perfect backup for him, and because Garon is playing so well, it's a positive push to play at his best. I like what I'm seeing out of Mason and it's not happening quickly, but at least it's happening.

Thanks as always Justin. Hoping to seem some more consistency out of him is the big thing.

[GoalieGuild]

Justin - thanks as always for doing this.

2 questions for you:

1. Still not much in the good news column on Pickard and I'm guessing he will be in for another fall down your rankings in December. Time to cut bait? Or put another way, would you drop him if there were guys significantly higher than him on the ranking list that were available?

2. Do you think Oliver Roy is/will be capable of being an NHL starter? I don't like DD all that much, and it seems to me the Oilers don't like JDD, and obviously neither Khabibulin nor Gerber are the long-term answer. In my mind all of that means that if Roy's got the goods he could have an opportunity waiting for him in the next couple of years.

1. If there are guys "significantly" higher on him and in a better fantasy position as far as depth chart is concerned, yes, time to cut bait with Pickard. If not, keep him until Atte Engren comes over to North America. Knowing how quickly Lindback transitioned, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened next fall. Not saying Engren is heading straight to the AHL or whatever, but Engren coming over to North America will seriously impact Pickard's future. Only thing that could salvage him is a trade.

2. Yes, Roy is capable of being an NHL starter. It's so sad when guys actually can say "team doesn't like goalie x" and they are 100% true. A goalie should never be "not liked" by an organization, otherwise they are wasting time, money and space. Just kind of a joke at this point regarding JDD and the Oilers. Not sure why nobody likes Roy long-term but I'm doing my best to tell people that Roy is legit and if he gets some minutes in the World Juniors it could finally put him on the "map" so to speak as far as legit prospects goes.

[Ron Burgundy]

Awesome, thanks.

Re: JDD, it's particularly stupid when they are paying him a million dollars to back up Gerber in the minors. Talk about messing with a guys head.