Edmonton Oilers

[metaldude26]

Erik Karlsson to Edmonton popping up in the rumour mill again.

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Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
·
45m
Word is the #SJSharks and #oilers have re-engaged on Erik Karlsson trade discussions. There are considerable financial hurdles on both ends, but it's at least the second time this season they've explored a potential fit.

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I've got to think that this is just deadline nonsense. Like, I'm sure Ken Holland is inquiring on Karlsson, but as CJ alludes the financial hurdles are grave. You've got a better chance of securing property in the GTA as a recent college grad than Holland has of fitting Karlsson under the cap.

I suspect that every time someone calls about Karlsson, no matter how preliminary/exploratory someone in the Sharks FO is leaking to try and drum up the market.

[Axeman33]

I think this is just trade smoke. Holland himself has said dollars out/dollars in as far as the deadline goes. How many assets off their roster would they have to include just to make that idea float. Even if SJ retains cap, it wouldn't be easy. Then how much do they have to add to assets just to get SJ retain? This probably makes the asking price for Chychrun look good LOL!

I do think Gostisbehere makes more sense as a trade target. I'm not sure I like it from a defensive aspect but he's affordable, expiring contract and a puck mover. Get him and Bjugstad in, Puljujarvi + out.

Also it was mentioned last night that Yamamoto will be back by Wednesday so some sort of roster move is coming this week. Either someone (Puljujarvi) is going on waivers or a trade is going to happen.

[metaldude26]

Some really enlightening stuff in Ken Holland's Q+A with The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/4170117/2023...dline-holland/

The problem is I’m not adding. The guy I’m bringing in has got to be better (than what’s on the roster). I’m going to pay a price, right? If you’re paying a price, it can’t just be a little, slight improvement. If you’re going to pay a price, it’s got to be a significant improvement over the players that we’ve got.

We’re going to be dollar in, dollar out. We’re not adding anything. Anything we do is going to be an upgrade. So, I’m just working the phones and doing my work, watching the team, analyzing the team. I’ve spent lots of assets to try to get this team to be as good as we think we can make it.

(Oscar) Klefbom was a massive loss. There’s no hockey store to go and replace Klefbom. When I got here in ’19-20, he was this team’s No. 1 defenceman. He ran the power play and he was on the penalty kill. When you lose your best defenceman, how do you replace those guys? I dealt with it in Detroit when we lost (Vladimir) Konstantinov. I went out and signed Uwe Krupp. That didn’t really work out and then I traded three firsts for Chris Chelios. But it was at a time when there was no cap.

When you lose your No. 1 defenceman, people forget about it and move on to the next thing. But I don’t forget about it. No. 1 defenceman are supposed to play for you for a decade. It takes a long time to find those kinds of players.

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My takeaways:

1. It's not just dollars-in/dollars-out as Holland has been harping about for months, but it's also bodies-in/bodies-out. They are over the cap with a healthy roster so they're going to lose Puljujarvi for nothing just to get under the cap and then roll with a 21-man roster.

2. That puts Barrie, Yamamoto and Foegele squarely in the crosshairs as the players with a decent cap hit (that can be used to match in a trade) and could reasonably be upgraded upon. I suppose Kulak and Ceci are in the crosshairs as well but their age/term wouldn't be attractive to the tank commanders.

3. Holland's quotes reek of big game hunting. Haven't forgotten about Klefbom? Still searching for a #1 defenseman? He's not wrong, but I gulped when I saw the price paid for Chelios while thinking about Karlsson. As a Barrie owner in multiple leagues I'm at least somewhat concerned about all the smoke here.

4. I'm not sure I see a path to some of the rumored names if they are upgrading. Who are Gostisbehere, Gavrikov or Edmundson upgrades on? You could argue Broberg, but he's not going out, they need his tiny salary and he's playing well (albeit in a SHELTERED role). So Kulak? I'm not sure that does what you want. You could certainly say you'd trust a vet to do what Desharnais is doing more than the rookie Desharnais, but again, tiny salary so to bring in one of those guys, you've got to send out a forward like Foegele or Yamamoto to match dollars. Now you're playing whack-a-mole with the roster. Could happen, but I don't see it.

[Axeman33]

Agreed. That's why I can see a forward upgrade but I'm not sure a Dman is in their trading future. I just mention Gostisbehere because he's an upgrade to most of their D as far as a puck mover goes, outside of Bouchard.

[Axeman33]

Take this for what it's worth but Bob Stauffer has said that the Oilers offer for Erik Karlsson would be their 2023 1st, defensemen Evan Bouchard, prospect Xavier Bourgault (as the 3 1sts) and two contracts, Tyson Barrie to balance out the numbers and another roster player.

Rumors all around. Of course he doesn't say how much cap SJ would have to retain on EKs contract for that much of a return.

[LuigiC173]

Take this for what it's worth but Bob Stauffer has said that the Oilers offer for Erik Karlsson would be their 2023 1st, defensemen Evan Bouchard, prospect Xavier Bourgault (as the 3 1sts) and two contracts, Tyson Barrie to balance out the numbers and another roster player.

Rumors all around. Of course he doesn't say how much cap SJ would have to retain on EKs contract for that much of a return.

yuck; as a Barrie owner I would be quite sad ha.

[chuckcouples]

If that's the asking price and San Jose is retaining enough salary to make it work, the Oilers should be all over that. I'm assuming the contracts are Barrie and Foegele. Karlsson easily replaces Barrie and Bouchard and the Oilers window is starting to close so they might as well go all in. The Oilers can't afford Barrie and Bouchard next season anyways and Barrie is likely not movable on his own. That would leave them with the following d:

Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Karlsson
Broberg - Desharnais
7th dman would be Jason Demers, Slater Koekkoek or Marcus Niemelainen

That's not great but they would finally have a number 1 dman which would help a lot. Yes I know that Karlsson's defence has not been great this season but that's likely because he's had nothing to play for. It's amazing how easy it is to get lackadaisical on defense when you have no chance of winning.

[Axeman33]

If that's the asking price and San Jose is retaining enough salary to make it work, the Oilers should be all over that. I'm assuming the contracts are Barrie and Foegele. Karlsson easily replaces Barrie and Bouchard and the Oilers window is starting to close so they might as well go all in. The Oilers can't afford Barrie and Bouchard next season anyways and Barrie is likely not movable on his own. That would leave them with the following d:

Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Karlsson
Broberg - Desharnais
7th dman would be Jason Demers, Slater Koekkoek or Marcus Niemelainen

That's not great but they would finally have a number 1 dman which would help a lot. Yes I know that Karlsson's defence has not been great this season but that's likely because he's had nothing to play for. It's amazing how easy it is to get lackadaisical on defense when you have no chance of winning.

If the retained amount was something close to 50%, I agree. I'm assuming it's Puljujarvi in there over Foegele but who knows.

Oilers fans on Twitter are split in this one. Some seem to think it's too much and others say do it. Im in the do it camp. If the Oilers are serious about making a run, they need to get better and getting better means paying a price. Improving their backend with one of the leagues best puck mover is not going to be easy and it's going to hurt in the assets it will cost you but that's the price of improvement.

At the end of the day, this will really come down to how much SJ is willing to eat on Karlsson. I think Holland has made his pitch and it's in Griers hands now.

Oilers fans who think it's too much don't seem to understand the Oilers are not going to get better if they aren't willing to pay a price.

[metaldude26]

I am fascinated by the amount that Bouchard's name has been thrown around in trade talks recently. The numbers suggest he has been really good, elite even when paired with Nurse. The usage and the eye test still suggest some real holes. He's only 23 and only in his 2nd full NHL season. Still so much runway left. But has the team determined that they don't have time for this runway? Or that it's simply inevitable that the only real way to improve this squad is to turn his roster position into a bonafide top defenseman? Is he only out there because of the Karlsson talks?

As a fantasy owner I'd 100% be shopping Bouchard around for something productive now because defensemen just aren't guaranteed to be productive even if they are skilled. But as a pretend GM, I wouldn't even consider moving him off this team.

Is there fire to this smoke?

[tweetdrivr]

I can’t believe they’d trade him at this point. They’ve put all this work into him and he’s just about to really gain some traction and be what they need. It seems to me like it would be a really bad move. No one available I can think of out there is worth it.

[lobo1969]

I am fascinated by the amount that Bouchard's name has been thrown around in trade talks recently. The numbers suggest he has been really good, elite even when paired with Nurse. The usage and the eye test still suggest some real holes. He's only 23 and only in his 2nd full NHL season. Still so much runway left. But has the team determined that they don't have time for this runway? Or that it's simply inevitable that the only real way to improve this squad is to turn his roster position into a bonafide top defenseman? Is he only out there because of the Karlsson talks?

As a fantasy owner I'd 100% be shopping Bouchard around for something productive now because defensemen just aren't guaranteed to be productive even if they are skilled. But as a pretend GM, I wouldn't even consider moving him off this team.

Is there fire to this smoke?

Really there is only one possible trade where I'm hearing Bouchard's name is coming up and that would be in a package to acquire E. Karlsson. If it isn't for the best (offensive) Dman in the league this year then, I don't believe Bouchard is being 'shopped' by the Holland for any other player. And if you believe the Oiler talking heads, ie Bob Stauffer, then the Oiler's haven't even made an official offer to SJ.
If a 'premium' Dman is to be traded out, it would be Barrie by far the most likely and then Broberg as a promising prospect.
But I would also suggest that any Dman on Oiler's roster shouldn't necessarily feel safe. Nurse is the least likely only because of his contract.

[Axeman33]

Really there is only one possible trade where I'm hearing Bouchard's name is coming up and that would be in a package to acquire E. Karlsson. If it isn't for the best (offensive) Dman in the league this year then, I don't believe Bouchard is being 'shopped' by the Holland for any other player. And if you believe the Oiler talking heads, ie Bob Stauffer, then the Oiler's haven't even made an official offer to SJ.
If a 'premium' Dman is to be traded out, it would be Barrie by far the most likely and then Broberg as a promising prospect.
But I would also suggest that any Dman on Oiler's roster shouldn't necessarily feel safe. Nurse is the least likely only because of his contract.

I dont blame him for getting the contract he received but he must be feeling some heat. He's clearly not living up to his end of the bargain as far as the money he's getting and the results he's offering. To quote Bobby Lou "My contract sucks".

[2014olympicgold]

I dont blame him for getting the contract he received but he must be feeling some heat. He's clearly not living up to his end of the bargain as far as the money he's getting and the results he's offering. To quote Bobby Lou "My contract sucks".

It's funny because Nurse is on track for his best season on surface level stats (G, A, Pts, +/-) but he's still underperforming like crazy.

Edmonton's managerial issues I think really stem from no creativity in finding talent, signing talent, and developing talent.

Problem: Our D sucks
Solution: Sign a bunch of the name brand guys (Ceci, Barrie, Nurse)

Problem: Our Goaltending sucks
Solution: Sign the best goalie on the market (Campbell)

Problem: No secondary scoring
Solution: Sign the guy who's done well already with high end talent (Hyman)

Problem: We have roster openings because of UFAs
Solution: Sign them since they did well, and we'll stomach all the pay raises (Kane, RNH, Nurse, Barrie)

It's not a wrong thing to do, but if it's the only tactic, you run out of cap quick. If anything, the managers/owners are ok with paying for production to help McDavid in terms of money. However, that doesn't align with their picks this yr. They should be getting a deal done with a couple of higher picks in the next 10days.

[Axeman33]

It's funny because Nurse is on track for his best season on surface level stats (G, A, Pts, +/-) but he's still underperforming like crazy.

Edmonton's managerial issues I think really stem from no creativity in finding talent, signing talent, and developing talent.

Problem: Our D sucks
Solution: Sign a bunch of the name brand guys (Ceci, Barrie, Nurse)

Problem: Our Goaltending sucks
Solution: Sign the best goalie on the market (Campbell)

Problem: No secondary scoring
Solution: Sign the guy who's done well already with high end talent (Hyman)

Problem: We have roster openings because of UFAs
Solution: Sign them since they did well, and we'll stomach all the pay raises (Kane, RNH, Nurse, Barrie)

It's not a wrong thing to do, but if it's the only tactic, you run out of cap quick. If anything, the managers/owners are ok with paying for production to help McDavid in terms of money. However, that doesn't align with their picks this yr. They should be getting a deal done with a couple of higher picks in the next 10days.

A good read on Nurse's effectiveness this year (along with Ceci as his D partner). I've copied and pasted a lot of highlights from the article but I recommend reading it as there is charts that show various things Nurse does well compared to his counterparts in Edmonton and things he doesn't do so well.

https://oilersnation.com/news/how-go...ensive-pairing

Per Natural Stat Trick, the pairing of Nurse – Ceci holds a 47% expected goal differential. The team has been out-chanced at a ratio of 262 – 300 with that pairing on-ice at 5v5, and they’ve been a major drag on Edmonton’s top players.

With the Nurse-Ceci pairing, McDavid holds a 50% goal differential, and a 51% expected goal differential. With Nurse and Ceci off-ice, McDavid improves to 53% and 58% respectively in goal and expected goal share respectively. Draisaitl holds an awful 42% goal differential and 47% expected goal differential with Nurse and Ceci on-ice. Without them, Draisaitl markedly improves to 56% and 54% in GF% and xGF% respectively.

Safe to say, that simply doesn’t meet the standards of an acceptable top pairing in the NHL, a pair that’s been out-scored, out-shot, and out-chanced.

The primary issue with this pairing is entry defence.

The average shot off the rush/controlled entry is much more likely to result in a goal as opposed to the average shot off the cycle or off the forecheck.

Meanwhile, Nurse ranks last among Edmonton’s defence in both metrics by a considerable margin. His gap control has been a major weakness, as opposing forwards have had a much easier time entering the offensive zone with control against Nurse than other Oilers defender. Per AllThreeZones, Nurse also ranks last amongst the defensive core in chances allowed off entries against. With this in mind, it’s clear that this is a significant issue for Nurse and Ceci. Note that shots/chances off the rush are typically underrated by public scoring chance models. As mentioned earlier, Nurse-Ceci holds a 47 xGF%, and there’s a strong chance they’ve been worse than that.

This is Nurse’s major strength defensively, as he’s quite good at using his skating and strength to retrieve dump-ins efficiently and effectively.

To summarize the playing style of Nurse-Ceci; both players struggle at defending the entries and are often burnt off the rush. Nurse can retrieve pucks under forecheck pressure, and Ceci can break up the cycle efficiently relative to the rest of the team, but they still end up having consistency issues with breaking out of the DZ with control once they regain possession.

I think Ceci is fine as a #4-5 guy on a contender, but he just isn’t a top-pairing RD.

As for Nurse, to form a strong top-pairing, he needs a RD that can defend the rush, force dump-ins, break up the cycle, and exit the DZ with success at a consistent rate.

This is another reason why Nurse’s $9.25M contract remains a glaring issue. I think Nurse is capable as a strong #2-3 guy making ~$6-6.5M, but the fact that he makes more than Cale Makar and can’t carry his own defensive pair is a problem.

[Axeman33]

From the latest 32 Thoughts, while talking about the Oilers.

They already declined a big ask for Lafferty.

Interesting to know who the big ask was for Lafferty. Clearly Chicago is hoping for a home run with him. Glad to hear it wasn't Holland biting on this one. I like Lafferty but he's a 3C at best on most teams, and clearly that on Edmonton.

I still think Bjugstad is the guy they should be focused on for their right handed center option for the bottom six but we'll see.