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Thread: Edmonton Oilers

  1. #4651
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    Default Re: Edmonton Oilers

    The only way I would re-sign Barrie if I was the GM of the Oilers is he was willing to sign for less than $1,596,667 per year on a 2 year deal. Anything more than that, and I would rather have Bouchard in the lineup.

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    Rumor has it he's looking for a long term deal. Can't say I blame him. Oilers are also not looking to sign him long term, so good chance he's moving on next year.

    I've also read they are already in talks with Larsson on a new deal, in the 3-4 year area. Haven't heard money. If he can stay healthy, and continue to play like he did this year, I'm fine with a 3yr deal for Larsson if the money is similar to what he's making now.

    Still no word on RNH negotiations.
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  3. #4653
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    To further onto my last, rumor has it that the Larsson contract could come in around the $3.75M range for 3-4 years. That would be excellent value for the Oilers if that comes to fruition.
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  4. #4654
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    To further onto my last, rumor has it that the Larsson contract could come in around the $3.75M range for 3-4 years. That would be excellent value for the Oilers if that comes to fruition.
    I don't know that it's excellent value, but it would definitely be reasonable, especially relative to what comparable players signed for this past offseason. For instance, Chris Tanev came in at 4.5M AAV, Joel Edmundson at 3.5M AAV, Brendan Dillon at 3.9M AAV and TJ Brodie at 5M (does a little more than pure defense).

    The concern for Larsson would be that you are buying high. He had a truly good season, start to finish. We haven't seen that from him since 2017. But there is risk with injuries. He's been banged up and ineffective for stretches each of the past three seasons and the Oilers goalies have felt the brunt of that. That Larsson getting banged up immediately erodes the Oilers defense highlights how important he is. There is no one else on their right side with that skill set. Bouchard and Barrie are all offense. Bear can defend, but also get out-muscled.

    The Avalanche might be considered evidence that you don't necessarily need a pure shutdown type. In fact, they traded away this sort of player in Ian Cole earlier this season. Instead, they are proceeding with predominantly expert puckmovers and puck rushers, but those are unique players and rarely come cheap. Barrie is that player type in theory, but not in practice. There's a reason the Avalanche let him go and the Oilers should too. But the Avalanche did end up circling back around to a defense only type option in Patrik Nemeth. In the absence of truly high end puck movers, a good puck suffocator like Larsson or Cole or Nemeth can go a long way.

    There are lots of examples of this player type eroding after signing a long term UFA deal. Karl Alzner is probably the most famous of the bunch. But there are also plenty of examples of these guys maintaining utility into their mid-30s. Again, the injuries still scare me, but I would like to see Larsson back at a reasonable number, especially if it's signed AFTER the expansion draft so it's like we get another free protection slot. I like that locking him in would provide some cost certainty on defense. I like that putting dollars towards him means it's less likely to put dollars towards the redundant skills of Tyson Barrie, thus clearing a path for Evan Bouchard next season.

    I'm taking a bit of a leap, but assuming good news on Klefbom, he'd be protected along with Nurse and Bear on defense, leaving Jones and Lagesson unprotected (along with Russell, Larsson (UFA) and Barrie (UFA)). Seattle probably takes Jones, which is a hit but still leaves the Oilers with this defense corps going forward:

    Nurse 5.6M (UFA 2022) - Bear 2.0M (RFA 2022)
    Klefbom 4.167M (UFA 2023) - Larsson 3.75M (UFA 2025)
    Russell 1.25M (UFA 2022) - Bouchard 0.863 (RFA 2023)
    Lagesson 0.725 (RFA 2022) - Cheap UFA (Kulikov/Koekkoek type)

    That's a reasonable defense corp, one you can make the playoffs and compete with going forward. If you don't trust Klefbom's health or Russell's low upside or Lagesson's development, the good news is there is organizational depth on the left side with Samorukov coming off a great KHL season, Broberg looking to start in the AHL and some other depth options like Lennstrom and Niemelainen plying their trade in the AHL. Plus, depth types are always available cheap on the UFA market (which is why the previous Kris Russell contract was always so damning).

    Looking at the depth chart you see that Larsson's skill set really is one of the most irreplaceable on the roster. They have no one close to coming who can offer his level of defending on the right side and there isn't quite enough talent bubbling up on that side to bring up a different type of player anyhow. They don't have the funds to upgrade to a Dougie Hamilton or even an Alec Martinez. They could overpay to bring in a similar type like David Savard, or could gamble on aged versions like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, or Ian Cole, but there's guarantee you improve with that line of thinking. They could gamble on a Brandon Montour, or go cheap on a Zach Bogosian, but you risk settling for an Erik Gudbranson, and they likely don't have the talent to insulate these flawed options. Also look at the price the Lightning ended up paying for Savard at the deadline. If they don't fill this hole now, they could easily burn assets to do so later.
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  5. #4655
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    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    I don't know that it's excellent value, but it would definitely be reasonable, especially relative to what comparable players signed for this past offseason. For instance, Chris Tanev came in at 4.5M AAV, Joel Edmundson at 3.5M AAV, Brendan Dillon at 3.9M AAV and TJ Brodie at 5M (does a little more than pure defense).

    The concern for Larsson would be that you are buying high. He had a truly good season, start to finish. We haven't seen that from him since 2017. But there is risk with injuries. He's been banged up and ineffective for stretches each of the past three seasons and the Oilers goalies have felt the brunt of that. That Larsson getting banged up immediately erodes the Oilers defense highlights how important he is. There is no one else on their right side with that skill set. Bouchard and Barrie are all offense. Bear can defend, but also get out-muscled.

    The Avalanche might be considered evidence that you don't necessarily need a pure shutdown type. In fact, they traded away this sort of player in Ian Cole earlier this season. Instead, they are proceeding with predominantly expert puckmovers and puck rushers, but those are unique players and rarely come cheap. Barrie is that player type in theory, but not in practice. There's a reason the Avalanche let him go and the Oilers should too. But the Avalanche did end up circling back around to a defense only type option in Patrik Nemeth. In the absence of truly high end puck movers, a good puck suffocator like Larsson or Cole or Nemeth can go a long way.

    There are lots of examples of this player type eroding after signing a long term UFA deal. Karl Alzner is probably the most famous of the bunch. But there are also plenty of examples of these guys maintaining utility into their mid-30s. Again, the injuries still scare me, but I would like to see Larsson back at a reasonable number, especially if it's signed AFTER the expansion draft so it's like we get another free protection slot. I like that locking him in would provide some cost certainty on defense. I like that putting dollars towards him means it's less likely to put dollars towards the redundant skills of Tyson Barrie, thus clearing a path for Evan Bouchard next season.

    I'm taking a bit of a leap, but assuming good news on Klefbom, he'd be protected along with Nurse and Bear on defense, leaving Jones and Lagesson unprotected (along with Russell, Larsson (UFA) and Barrie (UFA)). Seattle probably takes Jones, which is a hit but still leaves the Oilers with this defense corps going forward:

    Nurse 5.6M (UFA 2022) - Bear 2.0M (RFA 2022)
    Klefbom 4.167M (UFA 2023) - Larsson 3.75M (UFA 2025)
    Russell 1.25M (UFA 2022) - Bouchard 0.863 (RFA 2023)
    Lagesson 0.725 (RFA 2022) - Cheap UFA (Kulikov/Koekkoek type)

    That's a reasonable defense corp, one you can make the playoffs and compete with going forward. If you don't trust Klefbom's health or Russell's low upside or Lagesson's development, the good news is there is organizational depth on the left side with Samorukov coming off a great KHL season, Broberg looking to start in the AHL and some other depth options like Lennstrom and Niemelainen plying their trade in the AHL. Plus, depth types are always available cheap on the UFA market (which is why the previous Kris Russell contract was always so damning).

    Looking at the depth chart you see that Larsson's skill set really is one of the most irreplaceable on the roster. They have no one close to coming who can offer his level of defending on the right side and there isn't quite enough talent bubbling up on that side to bring up a different type of player anyhow. They don't have the funds to upgrade to a Dougie Hamilton or even an Alec Martinez. They could overpay to bring in a similar type like David Savard, or could gamble on aged versions like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, or Ian Cole, but there's guarantee you improve with that line of thinking. They could gamble on a Brandon Montour, or go cheap on a Zach Bogosian, but you risk settling for an Erik Gudbranson, and they likely don't have the talent to insulate these flawed options. Also look at the price the Lightning ended up paying for Savard at the deadline. If they don't fill this hole now, they could easily burn assets to do so later.
    Im just looking at what he could most likely fetch on the open market if he tested FA. Safe to say, he's getting more than $3.75M. As we both know all to well, health is keep for him to be successful. This was an excellent year for him primarily because he was able to stay healthy.
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  6. #4656
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    Default Re: Edmonton Oilers

    Any chance that Dave Tippett is fired tonight?

    He's getting outcoached in a bad, bad way. The Oilers would be in a much better position if they dressed their best players and then gave ice time to those who are doing well instead of trying Kassian on the wing with Draisaitl and McDavid. The Oilers have arguably the two best offensive players in the NHL and Tippett keeps dressing players who play low event hockey instead of people who can get the puck to his horses. It's hurting the Oilers badly.

  7. #4657
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    What you expect when you're a two person team. Real easy to key in and limit 2 players come playoff time and a team gets to focus on you. Do that and you win - Not saying you can contain the two beasts every game...

    I just didn't think the Jets would start playing good hockey again...
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    Default Re: Edmonton Oilers

    The Oilers need more then just 97 and 29 to be successful.. Sure the other lines can have good shifts here and there but the consistency is never there.. Puljavardi should not be your 4th best forward.. Nothing against Jesse, but the Oilers definitely need more producers!!
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  9. #4659
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    I've been saying this for a while now; this summer Holland will finally get a chance to put some pieces in there with the cap space he's going to have. Finally shedding some of the Chiarelli garbage deals. Not all of them but enough to finally have the ability to add some depth instead of dumpster diving. Holland's found some hidden gems in the dumpster but not enough to make a sizeable difference.

    I'd still love to see Holland deal Bear for depth up front or in goal as well.
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  10. #4660
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    Condition not met on the Kulikov deal.

    Kulikov to NJD for 2022 4th round pick (upgraded to a 3rd round if they win 1 round in the playoffs).
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  11. #4661
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    Another year the Oilers don't win the Cup, another offseason of Toronto media assuming McDavid is unhappy and wants out.

    https://twitter.com/DNBsports/status...795671553?s=19

    Connor McDavid on outside noise of him leaving: "That's not the case at all. We have a great core. We want to see this thing through together."
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    Toronto media decides every year that McDavid will now want out of here. Toronto media bosses demand that Edmonton-based media guy ask McDavid about it. He and teammates couldn't be more emphatic about it. Feel sorry for the poor reporters. They already know the answer.
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  12. #4662
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    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Another year the Oilers don't win the Cup, another offseason of Toronto media assuming McDavid is unhappy and wants out.
    They have to prepare for the departure of Auston Matthews in three years time.
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  13. #4663
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    Anyone else feeling queasy about this summer's coming spending spree?

    They have roughly $25M to spend but a lot of that is presumably earmarked for bringing back UFAs Larsson, Smith and RNH. Assuming those guys come in at roughly $13M that chews up half the money. Yamamoto will likely get squeezed on a bridge deal. That leaves maybe $10M for splurging, but perhaps more if buyouts for Neal and Koskinen happen. But those buyouts just lead to more potential for madness and a guarantee of dead money on the books.

    I look back at the last few times the Oilers have gone out spending and the team is still feeling the pain of those free agency missteps. It'll be Holland's first crack at it in Edmonton, but his more recent track record in Detroit is not exactly comforting. It's mostly short-term small cap bets but there's a whole lot of Mike Green, Frans Nielsen, Stephen Weiss and Trevor Daley that give worry. We all assume that the money getting spent will go towards solutions, but it could easily be the next set of problems.

    I also find myself wondering about what Nurse and Puljujarvi's next deals will look like. They cannot be extended until free agency opens at the end of July, but Holland should get busy now working on the details of those extensions so they can go into unrestricted free agency with a much better understanding of their long term cap situation and hopefully will provide some caution regarding how far they extend themselves with Larsson, Nuge, and whatever external free agents are pursued.

    I am fully prepared to see 5 years at $6M for Tatar, 2 years at $2.5M for Bernier and 2 years at 1.5M for Glendening as Holland cycles back through his old flames.
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  14. #4664
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    I'd much rather see then go after someone like Hyman than Tatar, especially if we're talking that type of money/term. He brings more to the table in my opinion as far as an all-around game. I dont think either LW is worth $6M and I dont expect them to cost that much but we'll see.

    I'd have no issues with them going after Bernier and Glendening. They need a right handed shooting center who can win draws and Glendening fits the bill there. Not sure I like the idea of $1.5M for more than one season though. Bernier is still a solid goalie. I'd be fine with 2 yrs at $2.5M if thats what he comes in at. He's not flashy but he's solid.
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    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
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  15. #4665
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    Everything I'm hearing is Klefbom is retiring. Anybody hearing anything different?

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