Edmonton Oilers

[Axeman33]

RNH, hands down, even though they could use another winger.

EDIT: no, I am not on the bandwagon

I'm not going to lie, I love RNH, but he's doing nothing on McDavids wing 5on 5. Good on the PP, but useless 5 on 5. He's got something like 3 ES goals all season playing with McDavid. I wish Tippett would get his head out of his ass and put RNH back with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. That line was deadly 5 on 5 last year. Put Kahun up with McDavid. He can't be any worse than RNH.

[Shift Disturber]

I'm not going to lie, I love RNH, but he's doing nothing on McDavids wing 5on 5. Good on the PP, but useless 5 on 5. He's got something like 3 ES goals all season playing with McDavid. I wish Tippett would get his head out of his ass and put RNH back with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. That line was deadly 5 on 5 last year. Put Kahun up with McDavid. He can't be any worse than RNH.

That’s a matter of utilization not personnel. RNH is the better player IMO and Tippett could just as easily misuse Hall.

[Axeman33]

That’s a matter of utilization not personnel. RNH is the better player IMO and Tippett could just as easily misuse Hall.

No doubt.

[metaldude26]

As Lowetide so eloquently puts it: Nuge is a PP witch, but he does have some 5-on-5 struggles. Last year was literally the only season of his career where he bested 2.00 P/60 at 5-on-5. Here's his year-by-year breakdown:

2011/12 - 1.96
2012/13 - 1.12
2013/14 - 1.55
2014/15 - 1.91
2015/16 - 1.43
2016/17 - 1.50
2017/18 - 1.96
2018/19 - 1.75
2019/20 - 2.23
2020/21 - 1.18

There are some confounding factors in this. There's a handful of seasons in there where he was forsaken on the third line, and some banged up seasons, but bottom line he doesn't seem to drive offense on his own, but can hit lower-end first-line levels with strong drivers like Hall or Drai on his line. Strange that it hasn't worked with McDavid but SH% is a factor here.

Add all this up and there's some leeriness to overpay. On the other hand, where is the skill coming from otherwise? And, we don't want to make the Ryan Strome or Jordan Eberle mistake again and quit after an aberrant season. In this case, his SH% isn't the culprit, instead it's the IPP. Some of it is fit, and some of it is a dip in SH% but more than anything he's gone from 70% IPP to 40% IPP, which happened in his poor scoring sophomore season.

[Axeman33]

As Lowetide so eloquently puts it: Nuge is a PP witch, but he does have some 5-on-5 struggles. Last year was literally the only season of his career where he bested 2.00 P/60 at 5-on-5. Here's his year-by-year breakdown:

2011/12 - 1.96
2012/13 - 1.12
2013/14 - 1.55
2014/15 - 1.91
2015/16 - 1.43
2016/17 - 1.50
2017/18 - 1.96
2018/19 - 1.75
2019/20 - 2.23
2020/21 - 1.18

There are some confounding factors in this. There's a handful of seasons in there where he was forsaken on the third line, and some banged up seasons, but bottom line he doesn't seem to drive offense on his own, but can hit lower-end first-line levels with strong drivers like Hall or Drai on his line. Strange that it hasn't worked with McDavid but SH% is a factor here.

Add all this up and there's some leeriness to overpay. On the other hand, where is the skill coming from otherwise? And, we don't want to make the Ryan Strome or Jordan Eberle mistake again and quit after an aberrant season. In this case, his SH% isn't the culprit, instead it's the IPP. Some of it is fit, and some of it is a dip in SH% but more than anything he's gone from 70% IPP to 40% IPP, which happened in his poor scoring sophomore season.

That's the frustrating part. His best P/60 season was last year when that dynamite line was ripping it up. Why has Tippett not gone back to it (other than the one game recently) more often? Why can't he see it's not working with McDavid + RNH? And it's not like Kahun is doing anything on Draisaitl's line. It's forced Tippett to go back to loading up one line again and while it's still holding up, it is not a recipe for success.

[doulos]

I'd keep RNH over Hall.

These rumours scare me right now.

[rataylor22]

All I'll say is that Hall won't work on McDavid's wing for the same reason he doesn't work on Eichel's wing. If you're acquiring Hall, it's to play on a different line than 97. Stylistically, he works much better with 29 or 93.

[Axeman33]

All I'll say is that Hall won't work on McDavid's wing for the same reason he doesn't work on Eichel's wing. If you're acquiring Hall, it's to play on a different line than 97. Stylistically, he works much better with 29 or 93.

They already played together when McDavid was a rookie. Not great results if I remember correctly.

[rataylor22]

They already played together when McDavid was a rookie. Not great results if I remember correctly.

Yea I know, they did. It didn’t work then and I would continue to expect it to not work. He did work well with both 29 and 93 back then, and I would still expect that to continue, although 29 is obviously a much different player now.

[metaldude26]

That's the frustrating part. His best P/60 season was last year when that dynamite line was ripping it up. Why has Tippett not gone back to it (other than the one game recently) more often? Why can't he see it's not working with McDavid + RNH? And it's not like Kahun is doing anything on Draisaitl's line. It's forced Tippett to go back to loading up one line again and while it's still holding up, it is not a recipe for success.

I believe there is an element of tinkering.

Early on, it was about giving the McDavid/RNH combo a long run of time together to see if it could work, while also trying out Kahun and others with Drai/Yam. The upshot being that if you could have two lines that can tilt the scales, you're better off than last season. Nuge makes some sense with McDavid as a defensive conscience and to be fair, the McDavid line has been a lot more effective defensively this season. Is that all Nuge? Unlikely. More likely that McDavid heard the criticisms and went full Michael Jordan "I took that personally" and committed to safer play. You'll note he's forcing less off the rush and committing more to in zone offense.

As far as experiments, more recently, they'd been experimenting with Nuge driving his own line and loading up the top group since that's something they know they will have to use at points in a playoff run. We've even seen it loaded up even more with Yam in place of Pulju as the third wheel. Obviously, that top group is one you know works, but helpful to see how Nuge connects as a 2C with the new group of wingers.

Maybe I'm giving the coaching staff too much credit here, but it's not like Tippett and Co. are blind. They quickly moved Puljujarvi up to the top group when he showed flashes early on and he has stuck there all year. They did the same with Yamamoto to the Draisaitl line last season. They gave Turris some rope because of a lack of other options but eventually settled on him as a bottom-6 winger or scratch (before Nuge's injury). They gave Kahun even more rope on the Draisaitl line because while they weren't finishing they were generating chances.

[metaldude26]

I'd keep RNH over Hall.

These rumours scare me right now.

Indeed, scary stuff. Everyone thinks about what was lost when Hall left, and also what Hall did in his MVP season with New Jersey, but that season was a huge outlier, particularly from a shooting perspective. As I outlined previously, the man is a strong driver and playmaker, but not a finisher. They probably need a finisher. I do wonder what Hall could do if reunited with Draisaitl, and a Yamamoto mixed in. Draisaitl is killer off the rush, and Hall can still drive rush chances. Does Draisaitl need a Hall any more? Would that line possibly be more dynamic than the Nuge/Drai/Yam explosiveness of last season? Maybe they'd put up similar numbers but in a more sustainable fashion, or maybe that was an all-time PDO bender that will forever be tough to re-create.

All I'll say is that Hall won't work on McDavid's wing for the same reason he doesn't work on Eichel's wing. If you're acquiring Hall, it's to play on a different line than 97. Stylistically, he works much better with 29 or 93.

Indeed, this is strong insight. Who is shooting on that line? It's not that it can't work. We see the duplicative effect that Nuge or Draisaitl on McDavid's wing can have on rush effectiveness. McDavid will forever be instant offense, but face guard or corral him as certain teams have of late, and having a secondary carrier can help a lot. It gives another option and helps keep McDavid away from forcing things and getting into the trading chances/track meet that was his downfall last season. But Draisaitl, and to a lesser extent Nuge are stronger finishers than Hall at this stage so it probably works better overall. That said, with Nuge's struggles and Puljujarvi's stone hands, it's not like McDavid has had much finishing around him anyhow. He's just been finishing more himself, which makes you wonder if it could work with Hall.

In any case, I think if you were going for Hall, it's to boost another line and force teams to pick their poison. I do suspect that there is some reticence to leave McDavid completely on an island. It's why they've tried so hard to make Nuge-McDavid work, and also part of why we've seen so much Drai-McDavid of late. Yes, it'd be great if McDavid could lift Pulju and Ennis to 1st line levels and then Nuge/Drai/Yam could run amok against second units, but the Oilers really are absent one top-6 winger. Acquire Hall, stick him with Drai/Yam, and let Nuge-McDavid continue to possess and outscore teams, while perhaps not being as explosive as you'd hope and that's a legitimate top-6.

The problem is one of cost, in particular, opportunity cost. Who aren't you drafting if you go all-in on Hall? Who aren't you protecting in expansion if you extend him? Who aren't you re-signing in you give him a bag? And not just this summer but down the line as he ages into his 30s?

You are undoubtedly better if you add Hall and subtract nothing from this roster for this one season. Is that enough to win the North? Might be. Might not matter. We did the whole overpay for rentals thing last year. To be fair, Athanasiou wasn't supposed to be a rental. The cap was supposed to rise, and they were supposed to have more time to integrate him. But there were signs he wasn't the right target and that he might not be affordable even with the cap going up. Rebooting that experience is a no thank you.

Just look at what Tampa had to do for David Savard. Now, mind you, if you have a roster you know can win, it's easier to give up the 25th (or later) pick plus depth picks to add a significant piece. But you see the price to get salary retained and shop at the top of the market. Then look at the cost for pieces like Riley Nash or Patrick Nemeth. Those were much more reasonable. And one could argue upgrading the 3C spot would have as significant an impact on this team as upgrading the top 6. Much smarter to shop at the bottom of the market right now.

[metaldude26]

Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
·
42s
As expected, don’t believe the Oilers are in the mix on Taylor Hall at this point. Much speculated in recent months but again, Oilers are dollar in, dollar out and not looking to move picks.

[Axeman33]

Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
·
42s
As expected, don’t believe the Oilers are in the mix on Taylor Hall at this point. Much speculated in recent months but again, Oilers are dollar in, dollar out and not looking to move picks.

I'm fine with this but if they are moving dollar in/dollar out, they need to add something if they are getting an improvement. I've read Holland doesn't want to trade picks so something has to give. Is he willing to lose prospects to improve the roster? They don't have many picks next year to give as it is.

[PicklePickle]

If I'm buffalo, I ask for E.Bouchard and I eat 50% of hall contract

[Axeman33]

I'm not going to lie, I'd much rather see them go after Mike Hoffman than Taylor Hall.