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[The Comish]

I am also a believer in Pavelec, depending on your league's format.

Today, he had a wicked glove save on P.A. Parenteau that had Parenteau looking skyward! Elite skills on a crappy, but improving team.

[fulcrum]

I'm well aware of the poor team GAA of Atlanta the past 3 seasons, but they're not going to be that bad this season. ...........I'd expect them to come in around 20th in team GAA this year but with Pavs playing as he is, he's a good option in a lot of leagues.

Don't back down fella. I agree totally.

Atlanta is better than last year, and they are only going to get better if Pavelec can start playing solid, and he has the talent. That GAA will be better than a lot think.
- not all leagues count GAA
- if they do they also might count Saves and Save Percentage (both places that Pavelec could be a very valuable piece)

So, to flat out say Pavelec is a bad option....isn't a good statement.

[blayze]

Facepalm Spouting off mindless nonsense isn't good fantasy advice. I'm well aware of the poor team GAA of Atlanta the past 3 seasons, but they're not going to be that bad this season. They struggled early on without Bogo and Buff getting used to being on D again, they're playing a bit better now. I'd expect them to come in around 20th in team GAA this year but with Pavs playing as he is, he's a good option in a lot of leagues.

BTW, the real reason for his success is that opponents study the tape on Pavs and see no holes, so they really try to fine tune it. This makes them too selective and that really helps out the goalie.

Looks like I hit a nerve. Perhaps I was a little harsh, but here are the reasons for my position, which I still stand by.

1) Atlanta gives up a TON of goals - their defense is crap. As of today, they have given up the SECOND most amount of goals in the league - only Edmonton is worse. Sure Pavs is off to a good start, and he may be a good goalie, but a good goalie can only steal so many games.

2) Let's look at Pav's career numbers. Over the course of his career, he has been a .900 sv%, 3.20-3.30 GAA goalie - these are the facts. Perhaps he can be better if he were on a better team, but he's not - that is reality.

So you're telling me a goalie who's put up mediocre stats his whole career, playing on a team that has given up the 2nd most goals year to date (and will continue to do so), is a good fantasy option?

I'm not knocking Pavs - I think he is a decent goalie who is better than his stats indicate, but ATL is just terrible - that is a fact. Don't be fooled by the hot start... he will regress towards his career average eventually.

[JD88]

Great game again tonight and I am trying to land him now but I the guy wants to wait till his status goes up a bit more

[dongjohnson]

Looks like I hit a nerve. Perhaps I was a little harsh, but here are the reasons for my position, which I still stand by.

1) Atlanta gives up a TON of goals - their defense is crap. As of today, they have given up the SECOND most amount of goals in the league - only Edmonton is worse. Sure Pavs is off to a good start, and he may be a good goalie, but a good goalie can only steal so many games.

2) Let's look at Pav's career numbers. Over the course of his career, he has been a .900 sv%, 3.20-3.30 GAA goalie - these are the facts. Perhaps he can be better if he were on a better team, but he's not - that is reality.

So you're telling me a goalie who's put up mediocre stats his whole career, playing on a team that has given up the 2nd most goals year to date (and will continue to do so), is a good fantasy option?

I'm not knocking Pavs - I think he is a decent goalie who is better than his stats indicate, but ATL is just terrible - that is a fact. Don't be fooled by the hot start... he will regress towards his career average eventually.

You are just wrong. Atlanta has a far more balanced team now than in the past. This is a decent team, one that should end up around .500 or slightly above with some luck. I've seen them play in person many times, I've covered the Lightning on the radio and for blogs, sites etc and know the Thrashers damn well as a result. Pavelec is also a far more rounded goalie now than in the past. If you really think his GAA will be 3 this year, we'll make a public bet on it.

[blayze]

You are just wrong. Atlanta has a far more balanced team now than in the past. This is a decent team, one that should end up around .500 or slightly above with some luck. I've seen them play in person many times, I've covered the Lightning on the radio and for blogs, sites etc and know the Thrashers damn well as a result. Pavelec is also a far more rounded goalie now than in the past. If you really think his GAA will be 3 this year, we'll make a public bet on it.

With all due respect, everything you just said is meaningless from an objective standpoint. It's irrelevant where you think they will end up, or if you've seen all his games in person... I can't verify that, nor is it anything concrete or objective to go by.

It doesn't matter if they finish around 500 - that's not what we're debating... tons of teams finish well with crappy goalies (PIT, CHI). We're debating whether Pav is a good fantasy option.

Here's the hard data - we are 20 games into the season and they have given up 70 goals - 2nd worst in the NHL. THAT IS A FACT. They have been bottom dwellers in goals allowed for the last several years. They have never had any goalie in their history who has put up "solid" fantasy numbers in terms of wins, sv % or GAA - because they are a crappy defensive team.

So tell me, why exactly do you feel Pavs will be a solid fantasy option aside from the 2-3 good games he's had since returning? Aside from your "gut feeling" that they will do well, and your "attendance at many games"?

[dongjohnson]

Blayze, I understand you don't get it, so I'll put aside you're dickish comments. Their defense plays better in front of him, simply put. I've watched every game he's started this season, in whole or largely in part, and it's obvious. I get that you may not know hockey very well, your comments indicate it, so I'll explain it to you. When a team has confidence in their goalie, they often play better offensively and defensively. Offensively because they're more willing to take chances and defensively because the D is willing to apply pressure to opposing forwards.

If you'd watched the last few games, it would be obvious to you. In the shutout of Washington, the Caps had a 6 minute span of heavy pressure in the 2nd period and some at the very end of the game, but for the most part, the Caps looked limp. The game against the Isles was pretty much the same thing. In their 2-1 loss to Florida, both teams had lots of pressure but Pavelec bailed them out when they did give up good chances. Their D is coming together. Bogosian is healthy, Buff is getting accustomed to playing just D and Hainsey has even looked less bad. Plus, Craig Ramsay is a very savvy coach. He was a very highly touted assistant and won the cup in that position with the Lightning.

If you want to just talk numbers, Pavvy's numbers increased by leaps and bounds in his 2nd NHL season. They went from 3.60 GAA and .880 sv% to 3.06 and .906 in 42 games. He will see another substantial improvement this season. My best guess is something like 2.75 and .915.

Once again, if you want to make a public bet on it, let me know. Something like the loser has to disappear for 3 months, etc. But I know you're too smart to banish yourself for 90 days

[Carcillo]

They have never had any goalie in their history who has put up "solid" fantasy numbers in terms of wins, sv % or GAA - because they are a crappy defensive team.

Kari Lehtonen in 06-07 season: 34 wins, 2.79 GAA and .912 SV%. Tell me how those are not solid fantasy numbers?

[blunas]

Yeah, you can't cut any of them but keep an eye on Neuvy, whose numbers have been poor lately.

I agree, Neuvirth is beginning to worry me a bit. Boudreau is kind of a rogue and I get the bad feeling that if Neuvirth is not careful that Boudreau could get impatient or lose faith and give others an oppurtunity to take the job. Hope I am wrong. I will definitely keep a close on Pavelec.

[fulcrum]

If he's still on the wire in your league and you need a goalie, grab him while you still can. He's very close to completely seizing the starting job in Atlanta. 7 goals on 107 shots in his last 3 starts and dude is locked in. If they start playing well around him, he could post crazy numbers.

If you read the initial post this is a heads up that Pavelec is on the verge of taking the starting job.

There are people that might not follow Atlanta close enough to know this. There are also Brodeur and Miller owners out there looking for a fix.

Its a great heads up post for everyoe that may be in need of goalie help.

Don't drop any major pieces to your team, don't trade away a great prospect for him. This post is giving you the CHANCE to grab Pavelec cheap and ride him. If he isn't cheap right now ...someone beat you to the punch. If he takes over the starting gig in Atlanta his value will increase. Then, is he a starter for you? Is there someone in your league that needs him for a starter? Suddenly you have a good piece to help you win / rebuild / compete.

It was a great suggestion post that may get a lot of GM's a starting goalie in a week or two.

[oilerfan]

I find it humorous when people start spitting data left and right to prove a point, but leave out variables that aren't quite quantifiable. Atlanta's team is almost completely different. They have a completely different team, their offense is coming from a team effort and not through reliance on their one star.

They have leadership, and as much people may say is terrible defense, it's actually a pretty strong defense, just young. The high goals against have come against Mason. Sure the team has to be responsible in front of him, but when the goals keep going in easy, it is easy for a team to fall apart and more go in.

When the goalie starts making saves and making the game simple, teams often play well in front of them. How many games this year have teams got blown out after the goalies fall apart behind them.

Pavalec is a good goalie. Atlanta is going to be a better team than people expect. And rely on "past" numbers all you want but if you can't make adjustments based on situational variables around those stats then you'll never be able to understand why people are saying Pavalec will do well.

[Shiva Blaster]

I've been humming and hawing about Pavelec for a few days. My H2H league allows for daily roster changes, so having 3 solid goalies is integral to success. Right now I have Lundqvist, Fleury and Ellis. I've tried to be patient with Ellis, but I'm not sold on his play, or the # of starts he's going to get in Tampa with Smith playing decent as of late. I'm getting killed in the G stats with the inconsistent play of Lundy and the Flower (who is coming on finally) , so a solid 3rd goalie would really benefit me.

I'm happy with some recent traded and changes to my lineup, and want to roll with what I have, but Pavelec has been on the waiver wire and I'm thinking of dropping Ellis and picking him up.

Should I wait a while longer to see how both goalies do and risk Pavelec getting scooped or should I make the move for him now?





Thining about dropping him for Pavelec

[Gfunk]

I grabbed Pavs on Saturday morning. Within an hour another guy picked up Schneider who was on the wire.

I sent him a message and said "I scooped you didn't I?" He's like "Yup."

That was amazing.

[dongjohnson]

Let's see if Pavs stands up to Detroit tonight.

[dongjohnson]

32 saves, one goal against and a 5-1 win vs Detroit, he's even exceeding my expectations.