Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 6

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin!

A goalie mailbag is perfect for my dilemma right now lol....On my keeper team, I'm left with 2 spots for Rask, Turco or Price. I think I can be fairly competitive this yr but I'd need injuries to be nest to none (tough with my team). I can trade Price for a 1st (6th overall) or Turco for a 2nd (21st overall) and figure Rask to be my no brainer keeper. My question to you is what stats do you see for Price, Turo and Rask this coming season and maybe the yr after if you feel adventurous?

cats are W (3points), L (-1 point) and shutouts (5 points).... Also, which trade would you make if you were me? Thank you so much for this!!! I LOVE your reads, keep up the amazing work!

Tough dilemma. You are basically choosing between Turco and Price, because keeping Rask is a no-brainer.

I would move Price for the 6th overall pick. Basically it's going to be another really tough year mentally and pressure-wise for him in Montreal. He has more pressure than last year and double expectations to live up to his salary and Halak's play last year. I think he'll show improvement in his technique and mental toughness, but not enough to outweigh Turco in Chicago. Plus I'm sure you'd rather have the 6th overall pick as opposed to the 21st overall.

Turco is in an awesome, comfy situation. He'll get lots of games, wins and a chance for a lot of shutouts behind that defense. You lose a point for a loss - and Price could rack them up quickly if he gets into the doghouse.

The thing to watch for Turco is how he's managed by Quenneville. There might be some tricky spots but overall I see good things for Turks statistically this year. One element of his game you won't find in any statistic is his comfort level playing behind a strong defense that allows low-quality shots. That's exactly how it was in Dallas during the Zubov days. They would clog the middle with guys like Hatcher but they would allow a lot of outside shots. Plus Tippett's system really helped there at the tail end. Turco won't get all screwy if he doesn't face a lot of shots ... it will be a challenge but overall I like his stats this year. May not have the strongest save percentage though.

Still like the idea of getting 6th overall pick for Price and then rolling with Turco and Rask. Turco probably doesn't have the greatest long-term potential but I figure Rask kind of covers that area for you. Get Turco while he's worth owning and hope he lingers around for 2-3 more years as a starter.

[GoalieGuild]

Does Josh Harding have any value at all in a deep Keeper League? Is he worth at least a spot on the bench and continue to hope that something opens up for him somewhere?

If it's deep enough, sure. But he's a risk. And to echo what I've been saying for 3 years about him:

he doesn't play enough to warrant interest from enough GM's so he's stuck between a rock and a hard place. Being injury prone makes this even worse ... so yeah ... not good.

The good news is that Backstrom is showing signs of slowing down and Minnesota has goalies coming through the pipeline. So I think it's only a matter of time before he gets more games and finally gets moved. He has to stay healthy first. But he could be a surprise move and turn into an awesome 1B goalie somewhere and fight to be a starter.

I'd keep him if your league is super deep. Otherwise get some fresh blood in there.

[GoalieGuild]

Does Montoya have any value in a dynasty keeper? With Bryz and Labarbera ahead of him do you think he will ever see the light of an NHL day?

Also do you think I will be OK with Bryz, Turco and Thomas as my main goaltenders this season. We start two and the stats are: W, SV%, SO, GAA, SVS Made. (not the team in my sig.)

Yes, I think if Montoya can get over his injury issues and put together at least one full solid season in the AHL, people will start to recognize his potential. He's a good goalie, but he's not nearly as mentally tough as he needs to be and until he strings together a full healthy season, he'll always be a bust. This is a huge year for him, because of the two recent draftees and the fact that Climie is pushing for a backup role. Montoya either stakes his claim by proving his skill is legit or he gets hurt and is inconsistent and Climie gets the inside track for the job.

Bryzgalov and Turco as your 1-2 punch is solid. Lots of games, both experienced, both come with quality control and Thomas is a good #3 goalie if you like to take risks. Plus Rask isn't going to play every game, so I like your trifecta heading into the season. If I had to grade it I would give you a flat "B" lol.

[GoalieGuild]

Our one year pool switched to team goalies. Pick a team and you get the points any goalie earns you. Very straight forward win = 2 points, shut-out = 5 extra points. Just curious who you think the top 5 or so teams would be this year.

Vancouver. Detroit. New Jersey (frikken Brodeur). Los Angeles. Buffalo.

[GoalieGuild]

Hi, thanks for your help!

My goalies in a long term keeper league (W, Sv, GAA, S%, SO as cats) are currently:
Kipper
S. Mason
Leighton
DiPietro

It's not especially strong I realize. Should I consider moving Kipper for a player like Price and maybe some prospects or draft picks and start a bit of a rebuild? Or does Kipper have some good years left in him while Mason gains some consistency?

If you should move anyone for a goalie like Price, it should be Leighton or DiPietro. Kipper is a stud and will be for at least 3 more years. That allows Mason to evolve. Leighton is a journeyman that is currently at the peak of his potential. DiPietro is a band-aid boy and who knows what happens with him.

Grab some draft picks as high as you can, keep Kipper so that Mason can develop and then shed Leighton and DiPietro!

[GoalieGuild]

Hi Justin,

I am going to be keeping Lundqvist and Price in a 12 Team H2H Keeper keep 12 of 23.
Cats W GAA SV% SHO.

I was planning on keeping Nittymaki but Niemi signing in SJ makes him expendable.

Outside of Nitty, who are the top 5 1B goalies?

Thanks,
Rad

HMM the best 1B goalies out there heading into the season .......

Neuvirth
C. Mason
Deslauriers
Leclaire
JS Giguere

Roloson - if you think DiPi is the backup
Bernier - only if he gets Ersberg out of the way

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin,

I believe I read an old article of yours where you were not high on Dubnyk. Something about him not performing well in the AHL. I guess your opinion has changed from reading your reply here?

How do you see the Chris Mason vs. Pavelec goalie situation developing? Are they both worth owning in keeper leagues? Pavelec vs. Mike Smith?

Thanks!

I was not high on him at all for his first 8-10 games in an Oilers uniform. And in the AHL he was average. But he really displayed/revealed some mental toughness and fortitude after all those losses stacked up. This is all part of scouting - you have to read the situation he's in. He kept working hard, learned a lot, absorbed a lot, started to read and react better and was rewared with a huge win to end the season.

My opinion on him has changed but not dramatically. He still needs another full season of development in the AHL, maybe two years, before he's fully ready to handle NHL backup duties. The good news is that he proved late last season that he is capable of stopping NHL shots ... if he works really really hard and continues to improve his skill and fitness.

I think a lot of people might be underestimating Pavelec. The kid is a stud, he just needs the elusive ability of consistency. He had stretches of brilliance last season. He has legit size and skill. Just has to put it together in his head. I also think he has issues with game and energy management. But those are all things that improve over time. He could be really good, he could be really bad. But the truth is that he's very close to having that "elite skill" and so the rest is a matter of experience and strong work ethic.

I like both ATL goalies but they both have their flaws and areas of improvement. But I would say Pavelec is much more valuable in a keeper league compared to Mason. At his age and after having a big role in both Nashville and St. Louis, it can be really hard to re-gain that kind of starting role at his age.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks for doing this,

W, GAA, SAV% and SO

Have Backstrom, Howard and Markstrom. Debating on picking up Harding, garon or Roloson. Any thoughts would be appreciated. We start 2 but can move off bench, daily lineups.

Grab Roloson out of those three. He's constantly underestimated and DiPietro has more chance of getting hurt than Backstrom does. Garon isn't bad but I don't think he gets the kind of opportunities in Columbus that he needs to be effective. Rhythm goalies as backups don't work very well.

Roloson will perform well regardless of his situation. And DiPietro is a band-aid boy.

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin,

Love your work! Looking for your opinion.

I'm in a keeper league and I have the awesome trio of Niemi, Backstrom and Bernier (r).
I want to win the championship and I have an opportunity to acquire Brodeur for a 1st round draft pick in 2011. This is all positive. The dilemma is that we are in a salary cap league and Brodeur has the highest-not too worried about this as it only means less cap space for fall draft. Bigger concern is the amount of protectable players would mean releasing Backstrom if I can't find someone interested in acquiring him. I don't want to lose him for nothing, but it appears that this will happen as I want to win...basically it comes down to acquiring a top point producing goalie and giving up a future top 12 pick and likely Backstrom if I can't find a deal in our 12 team league. Brodeur probably has two more solid years left....
What do you think? Do I stand pat with solid trio and lose no goalie or top pick OR go for it???

Andrew

Go for it. There are so many good up and coming prospects out there that even with a strapped budget you can draft someone that flies under the radar. Not to take away anything from Backstrom, but if you want to win, drop him, get Brodeur and don't worry about what "might have been" with him.

Giving up a future Top-12 pick is only a huge hit if your other managers are goalie savvy and know who to draft. You can find a ton of other good prospects at the lower rounds and still end up with someone even better

If you want help choosing a potential draft pick goalie prospect send me a PM or start a thread when it comes time to do it and I'll help you find a few!

[Pokerface]

This isn't a very exciting question compared to all the prospect talk, but it is must for me......what do you see this year, and possibly next year for Alex Auld and Martin Biron? Who gets more starts(Auld?) plus normal stat categories?

[Pokerface]

Quote:
Originally Posted by GMGates View Post
Also, can you tell me a bit about David Leggio and Robert Mayer?

What are their upside vs. chances of reaching it?
Just in case you may have missed it. I own these two prospects in a deep 30 team league and find their situations a little interesting.

Thanks again!
__________________
Formely known as gatticus


--curious about these two as well

[Hawks1]

2 Questions GG

1)Tough decision here - Large Dynasty League

A team who is desperate for a Goalie Has offered me Robin Lehner for Jonas Gustavsson

My roster Goalies besides Gus are Steve Mason and Craig Anderson.

I have Jacob Markstrom and Corey Schneider(Who I could use as my #3) on the farm.

Im just so intrigued by Lehner but i also know Gus could be very good as the Leafs improve.

2) Timo Pielmeier. I've read your small bit on him on your top 100 rankings. Just thought if you could give me a little more. Whats his upside. Do you see him in the NHL as Hiller's backup? If so when would you say his ETA is?

Thanks for all your Help and keep up the good work!

[GoalieGuild]

I will answer these last few tomorrow! Great job everyone that was a crazy string of sweet fantasy questions!

[uofmehockey]

Will the Isles have to endure the entire 15 years of King Bandaid, alias DiPietro's salary? Will Snow be able to admit his mistake and bury/trade/send to Siberia or ala Yashin buy him out? Looking over the last two entry drafts, they have obviously already started drafting netminders. Is there a plan here?

[Sprya]

1. I remember you ranked Luongo 8th in 1-year league. Even with Hamhius and Ballard, Edler and Erhoff at D? I thought he will have better stats than last year which was "down year". No?

2. Fleury peripheral stats are awful for No.1 goalkeeper. Do you think Fleury will develop mental self-reliance and consistency to be a top netminder? What are chanses of that? 50%? 90%?

3. What's wrong with Varlamov? He played very well in two play-offs, have some problems during regulars - but that is growing path for any young netminder. Neuwirth was nothing special in NHL last year (yes, I khow about 2 Calders, but I don't watch the games, I just look at the statistics). Why do you think Neuwirth is a better goalie? What is Varly's future in NHL (and in Was) - your opinion?

4. Who do you think will be 1A and 1B goalie in Was, Edm, Tam, NYI, Ott this season? How will 82 games be spread between them?

5. What do you expect of Gerber (Games, W, GAA, SV%)?

Always appreciate your job!!!