Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 6

[GoalieGuild]

Does Roloson have one more good season left in the tank?

You better believe it. Very few goalies in the NHL have his experience, durability, understanding, mental toughness, etc. I don't think he'll be as quick or as nimble as last year, but he has a tireless work ethic and all of the "intangibles" to once again break through the mold of a 40+ year old goaltender. He's an amazing story of perseverence and never-say-die attitude. All last season he flew under the radar and did very well on a weak team. He was a lot like Chris Osgood when he had his two-year tenure with the Islanders.

On a team like that, you don't have to be the most talented goalie, you just need to have a good work ethic. I'm sure he'll have a great save percentage and once again, depending on DiPietro's play and health status, find a way to claim the "starter" tag for stretches of the regular season.

[GMGates]

That's an easy one - Dubnyk!! Oilers are nurturing him nicely, should evolve quietly with Gerber in the AHL and has a pretty good opportunity with Deslauriers only signed for a season and Khabibulin being the dumbass that he is.

Excellent, this simply reassures me of the decision made that landed me Dubnyk+ for Raycroft+, thanks!

[Savages]

Who will be the kings backup Bernier or Ersberg? Can Ersberg not play in the AHL?

[GoalieGuild]

For this season, how would you rank these pretty boys?
(W,SV%,GAA,SO)

Hiller
Quick
Ward
Kipper
Rinne

Thanks!

All of those goalies are close, so you can look at this ranking in a number of different ways.

1. Kipper
2. Rinne
3. Ward
4. Quick
5. Hiller

Kipper is who he is. Always playing well, even when the team is struggling. He is going to be much more competitive and focused this year - someone is finally clawing at him from behind (Karlsson) and that's an important mental factor that has been missing in his setting for many years.

Rinne will thrive by being in a great rhythm all season long. More games, more consistency, more experience, more comfort. Should be a great year for him.

I stick Ward in third spot because he's consistent, facing literally no pressure, and he's an underrated elite talent with the ability to blow people away for long stretches of time. And he's wearing knee guards now so he won't get all sliced up haha.

Quick gets the #4 spot because he played so many games last year that he's going to start on a nice roll as the #1 in LA. The team around him is strong, he's going to be focused because he knows Bernier is just waiting for that opportunity to steal his gig. Should keep him playing at the best of his ability.

Hiller ends up last on this list, but not because I think he's going to suck or anything like that. Anaheim's defense is questionable without Niedermayer and I think Hiller will have to work harder than ever before to keep his fantasy value where it was the last two seasons.

[His Dudeness]

Thanks for doing this. I'd like your views on Quick. I own him and he was awesome for me last year, but obviously the big concern I have is Bernier, and how soon he'll take over as the #1. I'm hoping that you think that Quick is good enough to still be worth owning, even if Bernier takes over, for the possibility that he gets moved to another team to be the starter. Thanks!

[Nas]

Thanks for doing this.

Can you rank the following goalies based on Minutes, GA & Save % (keeper league). Also should I try to pick up Halak in our upcoming draft, if so who should I drop/trade.

Vokoun
Price
Hiller
Varlamov
Rask

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks Justin! Can I get your thoughts on Vokoun as a goalie and how you see FLA goalie situation playing out from now until the start of next season. I have Vokoun and Markstrom on my roster, is it realistic to assume that both could be starters next year, Vokoun on a different team and Markstrom as FLA #1?

Vokoun will be the #1 in Florida all season long. Clemmensen is dead weight and insurance at this point. The only way Vokoun gets traded before the end of the season is if Florida is totally out of the playoff hunt and they begin the firesale early before the summer hits. Otherwise Vokoun will do his best (and do a great job as usual) of keeping the Panthers close to the playoffs.

It is realistic to assume that both could be starters next year on different teams. I don't think Markstrom will be rushed into a starting role in Florida. I could see the Panthers bringing in an UFA veteran to mentor Markstrom at the NHL level and then let him develop into a full-blown starter for the following season. They haven't rushed him before, they won't rush him in the future. They will stay the course and make sure he's 100% ready to take over that starting role ... because when he does, he's going to be a workhorse.

I can't really speculate any more on this because it's unclear how Markstrom does in the AHL. Let's see how he competes in pre-season and October and go from there.

But Vokoun isn't getting traded unless the Panthers are totally terrible and they have no chance of making the playoffs when the trade deadline starts to get close.

[vanfan]

I am picking 2 goalies in the first round of my keeper league draft. (I have 3 1st rnd picks) My current starter is Rinne and these are what I have to choose from.

Please rank in best order. Stats are: (W, L, SV, GAA, SO)


Jonathan Quick
Steve Mason
Michael Leighton
Niklas Backstrom
Kari Lehtonen
Pascal Leclaire
Jonas Gustavsson
Brian Elliott
Mike Smith
Ondrej Pavelec

Thanks in advance.

[Clinkers]

Thank you for doing doing this!!!

Here is my list of prospect G going into my draft:

JONAS ENROTH
DUSTIN TOKARSKY
ALEXANDER SALAK
CEDRIK DESJARDINS
JAROSLAV JANUS
JACK CAMPBELL
HENRIK KARLSSON
CHET PICKARD
ROBIN LEHNER
JUSSI RYNNAS
MATT HACKETT
ALEX STALOCK
BRAYDON HOLTBY

Which 3 would you pick today? Its a cap league/Pts only. So wins and SO.
Best attributes(talent), Best opportunity, best chance to give points. No timeframe. It's very though for me to sort them but I know your an expert.

[jayz16]

Hey Justin!

A goalie mailbag is perfect for my dilemma right now lol....

On my keeper team, I'm left with 2 spots for Rask, Turco or Price. I think I can be fairly competitive this yr but I'd need injuries to be nest to none (tough with my team).

I can trade Price for a 1st (6th overall) or Turco for a 2nd (21st overall) and figure Rask to be my no brainer keeper.

My question to you is what stats do you see for Price, Turo and Rask this coming season and maybe the yr after if you feel adventurous?

cats are W (3points), L (-1 point) and shutouts (5 points).... Also, which trade would you make if you were me?

Thank you so much for this!!! I LOVE your reads, keep up the amazing work!

[SharkMeat]

Who would you not draft a way of lowering their ranking in my mind...this is Yahoo h2h with 23% of points based on goalies, W, GAA, SO, Saves, I only carry two goalies.. my list is

Fleury - too inconsistent
Steve Mason - needs to prove himself
Lehtonen - too injury prone and may get fewer starts
Backstrom - too many better choices when you only need two goalies
Chris Mason - situation is unclear
Leclaire - too injury oriented

a lot of backup goalies I won't list as they will get less than 25 starts.

Mike

[dmnx2]

Does Josh Harding have any value at all in a deep Keeper League? Is he worth at least a spot on the bench and continue to hope that something opens up for him somewhere?

[GoalieGuild]

What do you think the chances these UFA goalies for next year re-sign with their current teams before free agency starts?

Vokoun
Bryzgalov
Howard
Anderson
Niemi

If there is no clear cut starter in Washington this year, do you think they re-sign both Varlamov/Neuvirth? If not, will the situation be the same next year with whoever stays/Holtby?

Thanks a ton.

If Vokoun puts Florida in the playoffs they might re-sign him for one more year so he can mentor Markstrom.

I think Bryzgalov has a good chance of getting re-signed for one or two more years. He's an elite goalie and he does well in the Coyotes system and there's not much out there as far as an upgrade goes, so yeah I see him getting re-signed.

Howard will get re-signed because Detroit believes in him. They put a lot of energy into developing him...I think they feel he's capable of getting even better. And now that he's got some playoff experience, he's a good fit.

Anderson is the real interesting one. It will depend on how he does this year. Colorado is not spending any more money than they have to and I can see Anderson wanting more. But if he doesn't play as well as he did last year, he's not going to get it. Very interesting touchy situation. He played so well last year that he almost set the bar too high. I could see Colorado and him clashing a bit. Watch it closely.

Niemi ... well, I have covered it very well in the School of Block that is currently up on the Dobber homepage. I personally think this whole season is a scouting year for Wayne Thomas and the Sharks coaching staff. If Niemi shows improvement and does well in the Sharks' system, he'll get re-signed. If not, he'll probably still find another job elsewhere.

I can't really speculate on Varlamov/Neuvirth yet. Everyone knows I have been touting Neuvirth as the "better" goalie of the two. But sometimes teams don't keep the better goalie. If Neuvy plays out of his mind and ends up getting 50+ starts, they might feel his trade value is at an all time high and move him. Or maybe they keep him because Varlamov is still dealing with inconsistency issues. It's literally impossible to know what their plan is ... because they probably have no clue what the plan is themselves. Scouting and analyzing development is a day-to-day thing.

I would rather trade Varlamov than Neuvirth. Varly has a little more glamor to his value but Neuvirth is the Great Deceiver and nobody really knows just how good he is. Would probably get more return for Varlamov and Neuvirth could easily end up being the better goalie...especially in the playoffs. That AHL success two years in a row is huge.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks Justin, looking forward to some feedback on a couple things.

What's your general opinion on Matt Climie? He's in a decent spot on your top 100, but does he have #1 potential or is he more of a #2/3 goalie for an NHL team?

I see Devan Dubnyk way down at #71 in your top 100. Any reason for this? Do you see him as having a limited ceiling? Or do you see him as a guy that's going to be out of the league soon?

I am a Matt Climie fan, but his size and age and limited opportunity has really hurt his development and fantasy value. He definitely has #1 potential, but he's not a workhorse or elite talent. I could see him being like a Johan Hedberg or Erik Ersberg. They are solid backups that can play a variety of roles and like Hedberg, step up and handle more games if needed. But I don't think he ever becomes like a full-blown starter. But he's similar to a goalie like Quick ... if he gets the opportunity, he will thrive and anything can happen from there. But I don't see it happening in Phoenix, unless both Bryzgalov and LaBarbera are let go. Right now as far as my Top-100 is concerned he's at peak value...so if he were to graduate next month, where he is right now is a good reflection of his overall value - a solid backup.

Dubnyk was actually off the list late last season, so he's actually trending upwards at a good rate. He's got great size and his opportunity is slowly getting better in Edmonton. He joined the list after signing that new two-year deal. He will probably continue to slowly rise and I think he's a goalie that works hard and that work ethic will go a long way in establishing his long-term potential over the next two years.

[GoalieGuild]

Who will be the kings backup Bernier or Ersberg? Can Ersberg not play in the AHL?

Not to cop out on this one, but your guess is as good as mine.

I would love to know if Ersberg's contract details allows him to be sent down. I'm honestly not sure. I will try to find out.

This is a really unique situation that could go a number of ways. Quick could be moved. Ersberg could just be sent down or traded.

But one thing I know for sure - Bernier is going to play like a beast in the pre-season and in training camp and make it very tough for LA to decide WTF to do. Should be fun to see how they handle it and how it all goes down.

Like I've been saying all summer ... it's only a matter of time. And when that time comes, WATCH OUT!!!!!