Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 6

[GoalieGuild]

This isn't a very exciting question compared to all the prospect talk, but it is must for me......what do you see this year, and possibly next year for Alex Auld and Martin Biron? Who gets more starts(Auld?) plus normal stat categories?

You are basically looking at two goalies that make great #4 goalies on your fantasy team but not necessarily valuable enough to be a solid #3 goalie. They both are close in age (Auld is 29 and Biron is 32) and they are both playing behind workhorses on solid teams.

Biron is signed for two years so you can expect him to play 15+ games each year (but no more than 20 unless something bad happens to Lundy).

Auld is signed through this season but I can see him finding another backup role on another team for ~1 million . But it depends on the landscape. Both have the ability to play more games if need be and thrive and instill confidence in their teammates.

[GoalieGuild]

Quote:
Originally Posted by GMGates View Post
Also, can you tell me a bit about David Leggio and Robert Mayer?

What are their upside vs. chances of reaching it?
Just in case you may have missed it. I own these two prospects in a deep 30 team league and find their situations a little interesting.

--curious about these two as well

Leggio is a former goalie for Clarkson that had an awesome playoff run in 2007 and 2008 and helped them win the ECAC Tournaments both years. He bounced around the AHL/ECHL for a bit then headed overseas where he played in Finland for TPS Turku in the SM-Liiga. He split time with Atte Engren all the way through the playoffs and posted amazing stats and helped TPS win the SM-Liiga title.

Now he is playing behind Enroth ... making that tandem the smallest in the AHL. Leggio is listed at 5-11 so he's a goalie that thrives on quick feet and work ethic. He's a fun goalie to watch but it's tough to decipher his upside until we see how he performs in a backup role in the AHL. Limited upside.

Robert Mayer is an ECHL standout and former QMJHL with much more potential and upside. He's going to continue to improve and gain confidence, especially if he does snag that backup role to Curtis Sanford in Hamilton. I would definitely keep your eyes on Mayer ... I know I am ... he's higher on my Top-100 Rankings than Leggio ... but both made the list for the first time ever!

Both definitely have interesting situations, but be more excited for Mayer. Goalies that win big playoff games in the ECHL often have more confidence when they start playing in the AHL. Both of them won playoff games in their respective leauges last year ... so it's definitely worth watching both of them.

[GoalieGuild]

2 Questions GG

1. Tough decision here - Large Dynasty League

A team who is desperate for a Goalie Has offered me Robin Lehner for Jonas Gustavsson

My roster Goalies besides Gus are Steve Mason and Craig Anderson.

I have Jacob Markstrom and Corey Schneider(Who I could use as my #3) on the farm.

Im just so intrigued by Lehner but i also know Gus could be very good as the Leafs improve.

2) Timo Pielmeier. I've read your small bit on him on your top 100 rankings. Just thought if you could give me a little more. Whats his upside. Do you see him in the NHL as Hiller's backup? If so when would you say his ETA is?

Thanks for all your Help and keep up the good work!

1. Definitely think about making that trade. You have Mason (young) and Anderson (older but good right now). Bring up Schneider as your #3 as he will get games this year and thrive on a strong team. Markstrom is playing in the AHL so he can develop for another year. With that kind of young and current talent, letting Gustavsson go should be fairly easy. You're covered on all bases and you get Lehner in return!!!! Basically a no-brainer in my opinion.

2. Pielmeier is a really interesting prospect because of the mixture of styles he employs and his confidence. He dominated in the ECHL last year with Bakersfield, scored a goal, played in the All-Star game. Besides Bachman, not many goalies made as big of waves in the ECHL last year. He is clearly in line to be Hiller's backup, maybe even as soon as next season. This year he gets to play in the AHL in Syracuse - huge win for his development. He has some good competition from Levasseur, but I have always been fairly high on Pielmeier. He played a ton of games in the QMJHL as a junior and so his development rate is really high. Just a real solid (not very big though) prospect that I think can evolve and thrive in the NHL. His upside is a potential NHL fringe starter or 1B goalie ....... could go higher over the next 2-3 years!

[ericdaoust]

Sorry for the late question, but I read your last reply about Auld and Biron and it got me thinking about something. In 3-5 years do you see the goalie landscape changing where teams start behaving more like the Predators and looking within at familiar faces rather than looking externally for guys like Biron and Auld?

More specifically, could you see guys like Biron and Auld eventually cast aside in favor of guys like Chad Johnson and Cedric Desjardins (I know he's gone now, but on July 1st he was Habs property) on their respective teams? Another example... Thomas Greiss instead of Antti Niemi.

It would really help in fantasy-land as it would give new value to investing into developing goalies as teams would actually be using their pipeline to fill needs rather than finding the best available unsigned UFA.

[Killer67]

Hey Justin, I think mine got skipped, so here it is:

Hi Justin, thanks for doing this!!

I have been fortunate enough to draft Niemi, Niitymaki and Stalock. Being that I don't think my team will win this year, do you think it would be wise to try and package Niemi/Niity for a starting goalie with a better situation (Ward, Rinne, etc...)?? Assume I keep Stalock in this situation.

Thanks

[GoalieGuild]

1. I remember you ranked Luongo 8th in 1-year league. Even with Hamhius and Ballard, Edler and Erhoff at D? I thought he will have better stats than last year which was "down year". No?

2. Fleury peripheral stats are awful for No.1 goalkeeper. Do you think Fleury will develop mental self-reliance and consistency to be a top netminder? What are chanses of that? 50%? 90%?

3. What's wrong with Varlamov? He played very well in two play-offs, have some problems during regulars - but that is growing path for any young netminder. Neuwirth was nothing special in NHL last year (yes, I khow about 2 Calders, but I don't watch the games, I just look at the statistics). Why do you think Neuwirth is a better goalie? What is Varly's future in NHL (and in Was) - your opinion?

4. Who do you think will be 1A and 1B goalie in Was, Edm, Tam, NYI, Ott this season? How will 82 games be spread between them?

5. What do you expect of Gerber (Games, W, GAA, SV%)?

Always appreciate your job!!!

1. Luongo at #8 was low. Now that he's no longer the captain, he definitely is in line to be one of the Top 5 fantasy goalies for a one-year league. I admit I had him a little lower than he should have been, even before the captaincy change. I see good things for Lou with a new goalie coach too. Just remember how he really struggles with traffic in front...it could cause confidence issues at times. And inconsistency. But he won't have nearly the same amount of issues/pressure as last year.

2. 60-65% chance that Fleury shows some maturity in his mental toughness. If he showed up 30 minutes earlier to every single game this year, that would be a great sign. It's all in how he prepares. He is one of the most skilled goalies in the world. He has to prepare for games a lot better than he did last year. That's why you see terrible stats on a strong team for such a skilled goalie. He just kinda shows up and goes through the motions. He needs to actively engage his mind and actually have a plan of preparation. This is something all goalies learn over time, especially those that rely so much on their skill. I think he gets a little better but still shows some inconsistency.

3. I have discussed the Varly vs Neuvy thing ad nauseum. Not to skip, but yeah. Basically Neuvirth has more mental toughness aspects, is much more refined and calm in the net, has more consistent confidence, etc. All the things stats don't show, he has. That's why you can't just look at stats. Search "The Great Deceiver" on the School of Block articles list on Dobber's website and read that. It will tell you all you need to know. Varly's issues are that he's really talented but doesn't have the best situational awareness. He doesn't manage his energy very well. He is all over the place early and wears down quickly. He still has issues with angle coverage (only slightly) and he's just still very early in the maturation/development process. But he's extremely skilled so he thrives.

I will say that the fact Neuvy and Varly are pitted against each other this year will go a long way in showing / revealing both goalies' strengths and weaknesses. You'll be able to see it a lot better.

4. Washington will see Neuvy end up playing more games. Edmonton will see Deslauriers play more games because Khabby is a dehydrated old cow. LOL. Tampa Bay will see Dan Ellis play more games but I am quickly starting to wonder about his focus. His playing time will depend more on Smith's health than anything. Islanders? Roloson. Ottawa? Elliott.

[Hawks1]

Thanks for your help Justin.

Ofcourse my biggest risk is an injury to one of my starters. But yeah I'll take your advice and make the deal I think.