Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 6

[GoalieGuild]

It's labor day and my Niemi piece from late last week is still on the front page so I'm opening today's School of Block up for fantasy goalie questions!! Fire away! If it is a Coyotes goalie-related question I ask that you drop it in the "Current State of..." thread as Phoenix is up next.

Drafts are starting to take place everywhere, so let's talk a little draft strategy! That was going to be my topic for School of Block this week, but there's no justice in diving into it on Labor Day.

Have a good holiday everyone and feel free to fire off your questions!

[Big Ev]

Who would you rather pick in a one year draft as a backup to Fleury?

Ward
Turco
Quick
Price
S. Mason

[Shake]

It's been talked about quite a bit on here , but I've never personally asked you so here it is..


I own Robin Lehner and Dustin Tokarski in just about every H2H league I run.

What can I truly expect from these 2 goalies in a few years?

Either of them ALL Star caliber? Legit #1's?

More of a 1A and 1B type goalies for their respective teams?

Just trying to gauge or feel confident owning these 2 goalies long term.

[GoalieGuild]

Who would you rather pick in a one year draft as a backup to Fleury?

Ward
Turco
Quick
Price
S. Mason

Those are all pretty solid #2 goalies, to be honest. Fleury is a little inconsistent on a strong team so starts/wins will be a breeze. Go for someone that will provide you with a really nice save percentage and GAA and still get plenty of starts/wins.

I think Quick or Ward makes the best sense. They are more consistent, with Ward trumping Quick in that field. Turco is going to be a volatile goalie to own heading into the season because, even though we know he's going to win a lot of games, his rhytm will be greatly influenced by Quenneville's treatment. Mason is also an "unknown" although I do think he has a strong start to the season.

And Price? Well he's facing more pressure than any goalie I can think of in the last couple of years so you're better off going with a guy who has ZERO pressure and that's Ward.

[Bighabfan]

Which prospect is closer to regular NHL duty, and who's upside is better, Robin Lehner or Jake Allen?
Thanks for your time?

[GMGates]

Dubnyk or Raycroft, this year and beyond?

Thanks!

[GMGates]

Also, can you tell me a bit about David Leggio and Robert Mayer?

What are their upside vs. chances of reaching it?

[GoalieGuild]

It's been talked about quite a bit on here , but I've never personally asked you so here it is..


I own Robin Lehner and Dustin Tokarski in just about every H2H league I run. What can I truly expect from these 2 goalies in a few years? Either of them ALL Star caliber? Legit #1's? More of a 1A and 1B type goalies for their respective teams? Just trying to gauge or feel confident owning these 2 goalies long term.

Well as you can see, Ottawa is so high on Lehner that they are willing to pull him out of juniors after just one (really strong) season and give him a chance to fight for an AHL gig behind Mike Brodeur. Is it risky? Yes. Is he capable of thriving? Absolutely. Is it a big deal? Not really because they can send him back to his OHL team if he shows he can't hang. Will he hang? Probably! The kid has a lot of energy and with that kind of frame, regardless of how talented shooters are at the AHL level, he's going to block a lot of pucks. It will basically come down to his confidence and the mental factors and how he can compete.

Lehner is capable of being an NHL All-Star in 3-4 more years. He's capable of being a legit #1 ... maybe in three more years (1-2 in AHL and 1-2 in NHL). Lehner's size and durability lends a hand to him being a workhorse. And it has to be said that Lehner is in a brilliant system when it comes to opportunity. Only 5 goalies in Ottawa's depth chart, Leclaire is a band-aid boy ... Elliott is an average NHL starter with limited potential/upside and Mike Brodeur is a veteran. So the door is WIDE open.

On the other hand, Tokarski is immersed in a really deep and talented system. Is he capable of being an NHL All-Star? Absolutely. But he doesn't have the same size or the same opportunity as Lehner. It helps that he's way ahead of the learning curve as far as age and experience goes, but it's going to be a lot tougher for Tokarski to get to that point. Regardless, as of right now, Tokarski is still one of the most talented prospects to own and he's really close to obtaining an NHL backup role. He will probably get some games in the NHL this season if Ellis or Smith goes down with an injury. Cedrick Desjardins really mucks up Tokarski's opportunity because they could both play very well in Norfolk and depending on a variety of issues it could be CD getting the call-up over DT. I have a feeling that either Smith, Tokarski or Desjardins gets moved between now and the end of the new season. Just a hunch.

I would feel super confident owning both. But I would also recognize that Lehner has a major size and opportunity advantage being in Ottawa.

[angus]

Does Roloson have one more good season left in the tank?

[GoalieGuild]

Which prospect is closer to regular NHL duty, and who's upside is better, Robin Lehner or Jake Allen?
Thanks for your time?

Lehner for both of these. If you see my previous response regarding Lehner, that will give you great insight on his rate of development.

For Allen, he's ready to begin his AHL career but with Halak and Bishop expected to be a part of St. Louis' system for at least the next 3-4 years, Allen is going to have to explode talent wise and trump Bishop or warrant interest from other teams for a trade. It's a tough situation because if he were in Lehner's situation, he would be touted just as highly. But the Blues really want to see Bishop succeed, so they are going to nurture him and probably bring him up next season to play behind Halak. At least that's what I would do.

So Allen might need 2-3 years in the AHL before he has a legitimate shot at an NHL job, while Lehner could play well in the AHL this season and already be fighting for an NHL job next summer.

Plus, like I said before, size matters. And Lehner's frame is undeniable.

[BabyElias]

For this season, how would you rank these pretty boys?
(W,SV%,GAA,SO)

Hiller
Quick
Ward
Kipper
Rinne

Thanks!

[Gramps]

Thanks Justin! Can I get your thoughts on Vokoun as a goalie and how you see FLA goalie situation playing out from now until the start of next season. I have Vokoun and Markstrom on my roster, is it realistic to assume that both could be starters next year, Vokoun on a different team and Markstrom as FLA #1?

[Raja]

What do you think the chances these UFA goalies for next year re-sign with their current teams before free agency starts?

Vokoun
Bryzgalov
Howard
Anderson
Niemi

If there is no clear cut starter in Washington this year, do you think they re-sign both Varlamov/Neuvirth? If not, will the situation be the same next year with whoever stays/Holtby?

Thanks a ton.

[GoalieGuild]

Dubnyk or Raycroft, this year and beyond?

Thanks!

That's an easy one - Dubnyk!! Oilers are nurturing him nicely, should evolve quietly with Gerber in the AHL and has a pretty good opportunity with Deslauriers only signed for a season and Khabibulin being the dumbass that he is.

Raycroft is just bouncing around from team to team trying to salvage a backup role. Dallas only brought him in as insurance. There's a chance Krahn could actually win that job behind Lehtonen. Both he and Raycroft have two-way deals.

[ericdaoust]

Thanks Justin, looking forward to some feedback on a couple things.

What's your general opinion on Matt Climie? He's in a decent spot on your top 100, but does he have #1 potential or is he more of a #2/3 goalie for an NHL team?

I see Devan Dubnyk way down at #71 in your top 100. Any reason for this? Do you see him as having a limited ceiling? Or do you see him as a guy that's going to be out of the league soon?