Trade Contest - Who and what got traded

[SirKnight]

I am in the league and the trade was made. Nice breakdown hockeypoolgeek. I can not comment on your guesses but its awesome watching people tear apart two of my competitors and suggesting win-win trade scenarios. Shoeless, I thought this was a terrible idea last night when you first posted it but today I think its genius. I jotted down what I thought went down and then checked the site and I wasn't even close...

[Shoeless]

Alright I think perhaps a few more clues are in order, this isn't a cake walk, although all the info is there to come close which is good enough for the purposes of this analysis:

Team A moved 1 piece, Team B moved 2 pieces

Team A is a slightly reticent trader in the deal.

Think 'split'.

[Shoeless]

Team A trades 13th waiver pick for Team B's 10th prospect pick and Kostitsyn.

You have the teams reversed Dude but minor detail.

[metaldude26]

Well I wasn't sure whether this was a before or after shot of the teams.

[garethbush]

C: Crosby, Arnott, Krejci, Berglund, Bailey
LW: Gagne, Versteeg, Sullivan, A. Kostitsyn
RW: St. Louis, Doan, Voracek, Ju. Williams, Bergfors
D: McCabe, Carle, Yandle, Pitkanen, Wideman, Russell
G: Price, Halak, Theodore, Dipietro
Farm: Hedman, Benn, Bozak, Stalberg, Backlund, Eberle

OA Picks held: Waiver draft 1st, 25th, 37th, etc., Prospect draft 1st, 10th, 13th, 25th

Team B

C: Roy, Stastny, H. Sedin, Pavelski, Connolly
LW: Vanek, Eriksson, J. Jokinen
RW: Kane, D. Brown, Okposo, Hudler, Frolik
D: Doughty, EJ, Lidstrom, Liles, Timonen, Suter
G: Lehtonen, Turco, Boucher
Farm: J. Bernier, MacLean, MPS, Karlson, Ericsson

OA Picks held: Waiver draft: 10th, 13th, 22nd, 34th, etc., Prospect draft: 22nd, 34th

Guess 1: Dipietro for 10th/22nd
Guess 2: Waiver 1st for Timonen/13th
Guess 3: Doughty/22nd for Prospect 1st

[Shoeless]

Well I wasn't sure whether this was a before or after shot of the teams.

Ah right - this was a before shot of the teams. Sorry that would have been a good clarification.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I only used up two of my guesses because I hoped that more info would come out!

Team A moved 1 piece, Team B moved 2 pieces

Team A is a slightly reticent trader in the deal.

Think 'split'.

So why would Team A be slightly reticent? Why would any team be reticent to make a trade? Either their under duress (I'm assuming neither party was blackmailing or threatening each other ) or that they moved a piece that they didn't want to move, because Team B made them an offer they couldn't refuse.

The "split" thing makes me think that it was, indeed, "splitting" up Halak and Price. But that would mean that the player involed was Price/Halak and that Team B sent two picks. That doesn't make sense because any two of Team B's picks wouldn't be enough to convince Team A to do that.

But "split" could also be a play on something else here. Not sure exactly what that might be.

This is a 12-team league that keeps 17 players + 6 prospects per team... that means 276 players kept overall. So that #1 waiver pick probably isn't all that valuable... so I can't really see Team B giving up a roster player and a pick for the 277th player.

So what player/pick combination could Team B offer Team A that would satisfy both teams' needs? What winger could Team B offer Team A, that (in combination with a pick) would get a great pick coming back? Kane + any pick for the 1st overall prospect pick would be overkill, especially given the good LW prospects that Team B is holding.

Team B would like that 10th overall pick to take a solid goaltending prospect like Jack Campbell, but in a fantasy league like this one there's no guarantee that JC will be there at #10. Also, the timeline for JC to help out Team B in actually winning is several years down the line, which isn't really compatible with Team B's "win now" focus.

Argh, it's driving me nuts trying to figure out "split". Team A has prospect picks #10 and #13, whereas Team B has waiver picks #10 and #13. Could that be the split? Damn you and your headgames, Shoeless!

So who's the best non-Kane winger that Team B could send to Team A to get a pick? My guess here is that Team B sent MPS and the 22nd prospect pick to Team A for the 1st overall prospect pick. This "splits" the two Edmonton LW young guns? No, that doesn't make sense from Team B's perspective.

Damnit, I'm out... can't wrap my head around the wordplay. Maybe this is a good hint for someone else, because I've used up all my guesses.

Peace out!

HPG

[Shoeless]

You are right Geek that trade doesn't make sense and I treat that statement as a retraction - so you still have one guess.

Your audit got a little closer to turning up some key information but you took the wrong fork in the road with it.

[GMGates]

Price for 22nd prospect & 10th Waiver
MPS and 22nd prospect for 1st prospect

The "split" thing makes me think that it was, indeed, "splitting" up Halak and Price. But that would mean that the player involed was Price/Halak and that Team B sent two picks. That doesn't make sense because any two of Team B's picks wouldn't be enough to convince Team A to do that.

So who's the best non-Kane winger that Team B could send to Team A to get a pick? My guess here is that Team B sent MPS and the 22nd prospect pick to Team A for the 1st overall prospect pick. This "splits" the two Edmonton LW young guns? No, that doesn't make sense from Team B's perspective.

Maybe this is a good hint for someone else, because I've used up all my guesses.

HPG

Your audit got a little closer to turning up some key information but you took the wrong fork in the road with it.

I was thinking something along those lines... I'll think of a third guess later on.

[Shoeless]

If anyone wants a lesson on analysis - read Geek's mini audit and his follow-up post. They are brilliant. I daresay that his process could be used as a template that GM's might apply to their own team to pinpoint needs and potential solutions.

Geek made one error and that is along the path he tripped over a log and he kept looking at the path when he should have looked at the log.


There are a couple of other responses in this thread that are noteworthy - brief guesses that are either backed by sound analysis or very good intuition.

A week might be too long on this thing - we shall let it roll another day and see if any more interest is contributed.

[STONE.]

Theo is there to bridge the gap for Price growing up and Halak establishing himself in St Lou.

Is this the "split"?

Maybe HPG is on to something with his goaltending thoughts, but keeps abandoning them because he doesn't see Halak/Price getting moved. DiPietro is a possibility, but there's not much out there that gives reason for optimism when it comes to his knees. So...why not Theodore? Not a bad move for Team B, since he shouldn't cost too much and his UFA status makes him a nice gamble to get a good gig (since their protections are much later in the summer)? Team A can afford to move a goalie (although might be a bit reluctant given Price's iffiness), especially if given an opportunity to draft one with newly acquired picks.

I'll give another guess:

Team A sends Theodore
for
Team B's WW#10 and 13
(A loses a goalie, but picks up a couple opportunities to replace him)

OR

Team A sends Theodore
for
Team B's WW#10, Prospect#22nd

I dunno. I'll admit, this has been a fun little experiment Shoeless, and I'm excited to see how it pans out.

[GMGates]

I definitely think it's a tender going to Team B. This trade was made before the announcement of Nabokov's end in SJS. (I'll get back to that)

Therefore at the time of the trade, looking at the G's Team B has:

Lehtonen - injury problems, but still the starting goalie.
Turco - UFA
Boucher - UFA
Bernier - who could fight for first.

It's a roll of the dice, but I think this owner needed some help in net. He went after the buy-low Price.

one of my guesses were Price for a 10th Waiver and a 22nd Prospect but I'm going to say:

Price for a 10th & 13th waiver.

Now he should have Lehtenen, Turco, Price and Bernier (dropping Boucher who was probably a waiver pick up throughout the year when Emery went down).

That's a little more comfortable.

The other GM is reticent because he's either a Habs fan or has a gut feeling that Price could be stellar one day. But in the end chooses to make the deal because he feels Halak has out played Price.

Now Team B is in Heaven. Halak gets traded, Nabby's no longer in SJ, so he has 4 potential Starting goalies. Price - MTL, Lehtonen - DAL, Bernier - LAK and Turco potentially in SJ. and judging by a comment shoeless left in another thread I'm lead to believe that he acquired Price.


...or I could be out to lunch.

[STONE.]

Nice thoughts on the fact that the deal went down before the Halak trade -- if that's the case, then I think you're on to something here.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Yeah, you guys definitely seem to be on it. You're all right - I kept dismissing the goaltending because Halak and Price weren't together anymore when this post was made... but it doesn't necessarily mean that they weren't together when the trade was made.

Team A would have kept Price, wanting to sell high on Halak. I still would be surprised if Team A let Halak go for the 10th and 13th waiver pick, but that's my guess. Looking at Team A's timeline to compete, they can afford to wait on Price to reach his potential -- there are enough other kids on the roster there that will need time for seasoning. Team A moved Halak, not Price.

It ties together nicely with the "split" hint, and that would explain why Team A would have done it at the time, but is now reticent.

It seems like it's all come together nicely. My ankle hurts from running into that log so hard, but maybe I see it now.

I'm now out of guesses... great contest, Shoeless!

[GMGates]

Team A moved Halak, not Price.
I'm now out of guesses... great contest, Shoeless!

Great points HPG, Halak definitely fits Team B's win now mode. Somehow I was stuck on the buy-low and left out the fact that Team A would go for the sell-high.

In the end I'll be pleased to see if the player traded is indeed one of those two tenders.

If it is Halak, great job HPG and I'd be honored to be your runner up .

It's contests like these that really make you see the beauty of these forums. Being able to analyze two different teams and two different mindsets in order to break down what trade went through is simply amazing.

Thanks Shoeless!