Trade Contest - Who and what got traded

[Shoeless]

Are you a good trade detective? If so, here's a contest for you.

The prize is a clothing item from the Dobberhockey shop of the winner's choice.

The winner will be the person who comes the closest to guessing what went down in this trade. Members of the league in question are not eligible to enter and are asked to keep their lips sealed for now.

Background: Team A was inherited 1 year ago and Team B was inherited 2 years ago - both GM's are pretty decent operators with lots of experience.

Here's the setup:

12 team H2H, weekly starts, yahoo

17 keepers plus 6 man farm

Roster Positions: 3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6 D, 1 Util, 2 G, 5 BN, 2 IR

Stat Categories: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, GS, W, L, GAA, SA, SV, SV%, SHO (no min games for goalies)

6 round waiver draft followed by 3 round prospect draft in September. Waiver draftees must have at least 1 game in NHL and presently attached to a team and prospects can have played no games in NHL but have been drafted. Players are farm eligible until they hit 100 games and can be moved up and back to the farm. Keepers due Sept 23rd - trading open.

Team A

C: Crosby, Arnott, Krejci, Berglund, Bailey
LW: Gagne, Versteeg, Sullivan, A. Kostitsyn
RW: St. Louis, Doan, Voracek, Ju. Williams, Bergfors
D: McCabe, Carle, Yandle, Pitkanen, Wideman, Russell
G: Price, Halak, Theodore, Dipietro
Farm: Hedman, Benn, Bozak, Stalberg, Backlund, Eberle

OA Picks held: Waiver draft 1st, 25th, 37th, etc., Prospect draft 1st, 10th, 13th, 25th

Team B

C: Roy, Stastny, H. Sedin, Pavelski, Connolly
LW: Vanek, Eriksson, J. Jokinen, Kariya
RW: Kane, D. Brown, Okposo, Hudler, Frolik
D: Doughty, EJ, Lidstrom, Liles, Timonen, Suter
G: Lehtonen, Turco, Boucher
Farm: J. Bernier, MacLean, MPS, Karlson, Ericsson

OA Picks held: Waiver draft: 10th, 13th, 22nd, 34th, etc., Prospect draft: 22nd, 34th

Hints:

Team B initiated the trade talks which went back and forth several times before agreement.

1 roster player and 2 draft picks got traded.



What do you think went down?


3 guesses per user limit - winner selected on June 29th - no more clues coming

[little_boyes_semin]

Ignoring the possibility that some players/picks are more likely to get traded than others, my chances of winning are 3 in 3411, or 0.00088%.

[Phil the thrill]

Team A : give 1st overall in prospect draft and 1st overall in waivers draft
Team B : give H.Sedin

[Shoeless]

Yeah that was the point - not to ignore the obvious stuff. The better you are at analysis the obvious stuff increases dramatically, hence the odds of being right rapidly swings towards you.

We have a lot of folks chirping on team audits and giving advice on trades and here is a situation where two fairly good GMs think they cut a win-win deal - it's a test. I personally don't think the odds are dramatically disfavorable here.

[rjfisher83]

Team A traded Carey Price
Team B traded 10th and 13th picks in waiver draft

[First Round Pick]

Team A trades their 1st pick Waiver Draft and 10th pick Prospect Draft
Team B trades Lidstrom

[metaldude26]

Team A trades 13th waiver pick for Team B's 10th prospect pick and Kostitsyn.

[STONE.]

Team B sends EJ to Team A for 1st waiver pick and 25th prospect pick.

[Dean Youngblood]

this contest seems near impossible.

Team A Sends Waiver Draft 1st and Prospect Draft 1st for Doughty
Team A Sends WD 1st and PD 1st for Kane

I think Team moved one of Price or Halak so I will go with
Team B Sends Halak for Team Bs WD 10th and 13th

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Love it, Shoeless. We all make assumptions when we look at these posts, so it's great idea to compare that against what actually happened!

Background: Team A was inherited 1 year ago and Team B was inherited 2 years ago - both GM's are pretty decent operators with lots of experience.

here is a situation where two fairly good GMs think they cut a win-win deal

I think it's pretty clear what the question is here -- what does each team have an excess of, and what do they need?

I'm gonna do a mini-audit of each team, identify where they've got strengths and weaknesses... then hopefully the worlds will align, and it'll become obvious! So simple, in theory.

Team A:

C: Sid. That's the piece to build around. Good balance between vet (Arnott), established NHL players (Krejci) and up-and-comers (Berglund, Bailey). Lots in the pipeline on the farm too with Bozak and Backlund.
LW: Pretty unproven or old or injury prone or inconsistent. This is a pretty big need. Benn on the farm softens the blow, but he'll be a full-timer soon. Stalberg is in the pipeline too.
RW: Nice and established, but getting up there in age. Marty has a few peak years left, Doan should bounce back, and Voracek is great piece. Williams isn't too great (and pretty volatile) and Bergfors might be a solid depth guy or might not. Some more youth would be nice. Eberle is a good replacement, but an established player might be helpful to bridge the gap.
D: Great mix of youth and vets. Great talent to grow in too. Hedman in the pipeline is really nice too, though he'll have to earn a roster spot soon.
G: Theo is there to bridge the gap for Price growing up and Halak establishing himself in St Lou. Nice. Dipi is a huge question mark, but if he gets himself together, he'll be backstopping a nice team. As much as Garth Snow was the punchline of a lot of jokes, he's building that team the smart way.
FA picks: 1st overall. Nice.
Prospect picks: Lots of good early picks here, including the top pick. Four members of the farm will be coming up to the main roster sooner rather than later, so those guys will need to be replaced -- but this is still a position of strength. Hall should help that LW.

Strengths: C, D, prospect picks.
Weaknesses: LW, RW
Timeline to compete: a few years out. Lots of good young players, but they're not consistent enough yet.

Team B

C: Lots of depth here on the roster, with a few injury concerns but it's H2H so it's mitigable.
LW: Good core of young goalscorers here... upside and downside to that, but all-in-all, pretty good building blocks. Some depth will need to come via the draft. MacLean in the pipeline is a nice piece, especially given that he can sit on the farm and that he's ready to make an impact sooner rather than later. MPS? Yes please.
RW: Huge area of strength here. 1 stud in Kane, and 4 solid players at varying levels of development. Brown is a pretty solid multi-cat guy with his SOG and G; Okposo is on the upswing of his career and will have loads of opportunities; Hudler is coming back to a big role on a good Detroit team; Frolik's outlook is nice. Most of these guys are pure-RWs too... that's good. Frolik is really a LW, but who knows if the Yahoo Position Gods will catch that.
D: Lidstrom is getting up there in years but he's still productive. The rest of this D-core is fantastic -- young studs in DD and EJ, solid vets in Timonen, Suter, Liles, and Ericson and Karlsson in the pipeline? Huge area of strength.
G: A little short here, at least until Bernier comes around. Lehtonen as the starter in Dallas is good, though who knows when he'll play enough games to make all that faith pay off. Hopefully one of Turco and Boucher lands somewhere they can get some starts... in a 12-teamer, you want to have at least 2 full-time starters, so this is a big area to work on.
FA picks: pretty solid here; you should be able to recover some depth, but those picks are too late to really help your goaltending.
Prospect picks: picking reasonably late here, but you're pretty well positioned with young studs already. Karlsson and Ericson aren't long for your farm, but the rest of those guys are good for at least another year. That gives you 3 spots to fill.

Strengths: LW, RW, D
Weaknesses: G, prospect picks
Timeline to compete: right freakin' now. Probably makes a bit of sense to swing some of those kids for more established players, but then again, looking at the kids they're on the upswing sooner rather than later.

OK, so now where is the fit between the two?

Both teams are great on the back-end. Team A has picks and needs help on the wings. Team B has wings and needs help at G and with picks. Team B would love help in goal, but Team A isn't really a fit for that. Team B is probably looking to move some of his strength on D to someone else in the league for a starter. Seems like the best fit between Team A and Team B is wings for picks.

A couple guesses:

Team A sends the 10th prospect pick and the 25th waiver pick to Team B for Frolik

Team A sends the 1st waiver pick and the 13th prospect pick to Team B for Hudler.

Can't see Team A giving up Hall, and can't see Team B giving away one of those RW for free either.

Fun stuff, Shoeless!

PS: Easy to see who's Team B, given player preferences expressed on these boards.

[Renegade]

1. Kimmo Timonen and 22nd prospect pick
for
10th prospect pick

--- Team B moves up Erik Karlsson


2. Kris Versteeg
for
13th waiver and 34th prospect picks.

3. 1st overall prospect pick
for
Erik Karlsson and 22nd prospect pick.

[STONE.]

What are the odds that Shoeless is one of these teams, and there's been no deal done? He's probably just getting a lot of deal options. It'd be a smart way to get an objective audit.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

It would be smart, but I don't think he's that Machiavellian.

It's almost sure he's one of the teams, but I think he's being transparent when he says that the deal is done. The guy is all about learning through these boards, and very open about that... and any deep discussion he can promote, he always does. That's why he's so great for this community!

[rainmaker]

ill give it a try

Team B sends Frolik to Team A for waiver draft 1st and prospect draft 25th
or
Team B send Frolik to team A for 10th, 13th prospect picks
or
Team B sends Frolik to team A for 1st entry and 13th prospect pick

I think you traded Frolik, if its Hudler Im gunna be choked ha

[GMGates]

Price for 22nd prospect & 10th Waiver
MPS and 22nd prospect for 1st prospect