Kent Johnson

[CaveatEmptorer]

Does nobody subscribe to the 200-game Breakout Threshold?
PS - I loved how he spanked the AHL competition this year

Lol- I definitely do- haha! Fair point though- easy to get ahead of ourselves. I havent seen the AHL skill comp- Im gonna check that out this afternoon...

[Pengwin7]

Does nobody subscribe to the 200-game Breakout Threshold?
PS - I loved how he spanked the AHL competition this year

As a numbers-person, I absolutely love & support the general 200-game mark.
100% agree that's a good benchmark.

But I do expect handsy-perimeter-wingers (esp those that are small-to-average size) to *show* their game a bit earlier.
Look at Logan Stankoven & Zach Benson - do we really need to wait until their 200gp to evaluate them?
The boat has already sailed there... people should've hopped on those players after their first handful of games... right...
I have more patience with bigger-bodied players (Leo Carlsson, Byfield, Slafkovsky).
On the flip - let's take Jesse Puljujarvi... if somebody owned him at his 100gp or 150gp or 180gp... are we just saying "hold... hold... hold... he'll come around."
And then at 200gp... and 250gp... and then... well... here.we.are. 356gp.
Pulju looked like a "soft" "perimeter" guy at all his NHL marks.
Schremp... O'Sullivan... yeah... also those guys.
These "eye-takes" are important.


C'mon... fantasy hockey is all about timing your buy/sell to identify rising (or *bust*) players before others.
If we all just wait until 200gp... there's no "leg up" in timing your moves.

I mean... what are we all doing here on the forums... wasting our time (?!?) if we don't have some fun speculating on young players before their 200gp mark?!


Love ya - great to hear from ya!!!
Dobber... are you a Kent Johnson owner?!?!
Love to hear your own thoughts - if you had the time/focus to watch him this past (disappointing) year!!!

[CaveatEmptorer]

Love ya - great to hear from ya!!!
Dobber... are you a Kent Johnson owner?!?!
Love to hear your own thoughts - if you had the time/focus to watch him this past (disappointing) year!!!

Haha me too!! If youve got any "personal" insight on the kid I think theres a few of us stuck in our own holding patterns with him- lol!

[Dobber]

Love ya - great to hear from ya!!!
Dobber... are you a Kent Johnson owner?!?!
Love to hear your own thoughts - if you had the time/focus to watch him this past (disappointing) year!!!

Thanks!
No, I've never owned him. TBH I only saw a few CBJ games last season and absolutely none in March/April for obvious reasons. The team has a lot invested in his success, and I don't rule young upside guys out until that 200th game. Whenever I go fishing for prospects like these though, their owner never gives them up

[Pengwin7]

Whenever I go fishing for prospects like these though, their owner never gives them up

That's good! It means your league-mates are keen & the league is challenging!

Nobody should be giving up on Kent Johnson right now... but that also doesn't change that he looks disappointing & concerning.
I'd personally sell at 90c on the dollar... I'm worried about that amount. (ie. If somebody sees him as 80pt upside... I'd be willing to trade him for a guy at only 72pt upside)
I'm not selling at 80c on the dollar though. (ie. If somebody sees him as 80pt upside... I'm not accepting a guy with 65pt upside.)

(FWIW though - "top line center" can be scratched out with a pen. "Winger"... maybe... he's not an NHL-center. Nope.)

[DangerCat]

Thanks!
No, I've never owned him. TBH I only saw a few CBJ games last season and absolutely none in March/April for obvious reasons. The team has a lot invested in his success, and I don't rule young upside guys out until that 200th game. Whenever I go fishing for prospects like these though, their owner never gives them up

Really glad to see you back Dobber. So what is typically the increase at the Breakout threshold? It’s 40% is that the number I know you geniuses have a formula…but I mean even a 50%improvement on KJs numbers aren’t really all that tantalizing…I mean there are always guys that break the mould and KJ has the talent to do it but will he? I’m not convinced in him

[CaveatEmptorer]

I cant find the skills comp- if anyone has a good link- Id love to take a gander! I found the 2023 one in full- so I think theyre available out there- Ill keep digging...

I did find the highlights for the games: HERE

I found this along the way its an oldie- but CHILLS: SICK!

And this ones just funny: HAHA!

I know we've said it ad nauseam- that highlights dont guarantee anything in these cases- but gaddamnit this kid is fun to watch!!

[random-d]

I actually thought he showed some flashes of impressive ability at points when I watched him, I even considered him as a trade target for dynasty. Kinda surprised to see the generally lackluster overall opinion of him at the moment. Like Pen7 said earlier though, I was on the "No way CBJ can be that bad with that all that talent" boat. Alas that boat is now fish food, they can indeed be that bad. Does the change of management perhaps make a difference? What were his deployment numbers like?

[CaveatEmptorer]

I actually thought he showed some flashes of impressive ability at points when I watched him, I even considered him as a trade target for dynasty. Kinda surprised to see the generally lackluster overall opinion of him at the moment. Like Pen7 said earlier though, I was on the "No way CBJ can be that bad with that all that talent" boat. Alas that boat is now fish food, they can indeed be that bad. Does the change of management perhaps make a difference? What were his deployment numbers like?

These are good points. Change of management should help and when it comes to the sheer talent coming up on that roster I feel like as long as they can retain it- this team has the look of a future powerhouse.

To clarify for me- I dont put as much stock into the poor start as Peng- I mean I get where hes coming from- but I wait three years minimum before I start making hard calls on guys. You sort of have to agree that as an active roster guy hes been a disappointment but the leagues I play in leave lots of room for development and I wasnt expecting a ton right out of the gate- try not to with even the best prospects. His upside hasnt changed for me to be honest- I just sort of acknowledge that just about all of these guys CAN bust out and he has some discernable shortcomings in his game. Im usually banging the drum hard for these guys and thats a hard line to tow all the time- lol!

At the end of the day its a short sample but I think we're being sort of cavalier about his 15 in 10 in the AHL as well. Thats a mans pro league and he just turned the defenses he played against into swiss cheese.

Absolute upside: His ultimate upside to me is still Petterson. Thats big I know- but two factors to add there A) EP wasnt supposed to be as good as EP was and B) Im calling that for absolute ceiling.

Projectable Range: Theres a world where hes more of a Zegras type or what Zegras is supposed to be. Herm whats a better example... maybe RNH? I was about to say Nylander (who I was always high on) but he almost looks like hes stepping into EP territory himself- lol!

Downside: And finally theres a downside of like a Mike Ribeiro type- and for people that dont remember that looks more like 60-70 points thats very weak on peripherals. Im not insisting he'll land here but when I drafted him and following his career Ive come to terms with the fact that thats a legit outcome- not necessarily the most probable one- but a legit one.

To be clear- THAT stupendous skillset- the type that lets you make plays only a handful of other players on the planet could- that Datsyiukian range- he HAS that. IF he can address the short comings in his game- his actual offensive chops- stickhandling, playmaking, deceptive qualities- could be top ten in the league. Again he has a lot to do to make sure he can utilize those qualities effectively. They used to call EP Alien - because even when you watched him practice people were floored- it was like a skills comp. KJ has THAT- ask Matty Beniers who wasnt shy about calling him the most purely talented player hes ever seen.

I just wanted to put that out there as a counterpoint to Pengs post. I think theyre both true if Im honest- but Im not sure where Peng rates those hands when he calls him a handsy winger. Im just saying everything Im hearing is saying those hands are virtuoso-level witht he capacity to be some of the best in the league. Hes got people who literally just watch him practice- the stuff he can do is just nutty. I still agree that alone doesnt mean he'll succeed but its an important point to distinguish. Hes not JUST handsy- he sets the bar. Outside of the context of a hockey game he could go trick for trick with Petterson every day of the week and twice on Sundays...

Not for nothing but Cristall is in that group too. Only you add small, slow footspeed and inconsistent effort to the mix- lol! But theres a reason Bedard picked these two for his roller hockey team (which hilariously did not even do that well- lmao!!)- we are talking WORLD CLASS with both these guys. I sound like a broken record but I catch sh*t for being too optimstic all the time- so Ill qualify it once more- that doesnt guarantee anything- haha! If these guys (but especially KJ whose a much more complete package)- can find a way to stick in the lineup and start asserting their will on games- the results can be something very special... and if not they'll be Schremp 2.0...

EDIT: If were re-visiting the Celebrini thread in 3-5 years- lets go ahead and bookmark this one too...

[joe jones]

https://x.com/Aportzline/status/1845313660438061059

interesting start to the season for KJ!

[SeaDawg]

I agree. The points are nice but the ice time is what has peaked my interest the most. Suggests to me that he is maturing as a player by getting more responsibility, so the points should theoretically continue based on usage.

[joe jones]

Looks like he put on some muscle too

[dejeanneret]

He's on both PP1 (half wall position) and PK1 at the moment. A lot of trust being shown in him early on this season.

[dejeanneret]

...and now KJ flipped over his own teammate who was sprawled on the ice and landed hard on his shoulder with a grimace before heading down the tunnel. So we'll see.

[joe jones]

5 game point streak since back from injury