Tanner Molendyk

[CaveatEmptorer]

So its been slow around here- I thought I might drop another guy that stuck out to me in last years draft- Mr. Tanner Molendyk- speed demon defenseman extraordinaire...

When I brought up Cristall it was beacuse he had production that was just a little bit silly for a second rounder- with M-dyke its sort of the opposite. I was really intrigued before last years draft to see where he went because despite his modest production he seemed to have the raw tools/instincts to be a productive offensive defenseman down the line- especially with that top speed of his. The narrative seemed to be that although he was noteworthy he was just sort of hedged out of the top pp usage in his draft year. He had supporters and he had detractors but the read by both sides seemed to be that he needed a season in that top position to show what he can do- and especially to see if he knew how to use his speed to generate offense- which is not always a given.

He finished with 37 points in 67 games in his draft year- but both sides were unsure which way he was going to develop...

This year he did indeed get "top dog" status on the blades and he put up... well he put upsome numbers... 10-46-56 in 50 games...

I usually really lean "out" on Nashville guys as a guy who wasted waaaay too much time on Cody Glass and is currently a not especially proud owner of Philip Tomasino- lol! BUT that criticism really does belong with the forwards. Nashville is actually very adept at finding and developing defensemen that can contribute on the scoresheet.

The other thing I love is hes really not getting a ton of hype in the fantasy community (so far). A lot of guys dont update their projections until the off season and this is a guy a lot of scouts were willing to write off as a gamble last season... Well that gamble is paying off so far and theres just not a ton of coverage on it. This is the perfect guy to throw in as an "extra" in any off-season trade talks. Right now hes a late round fringe pick but by the time everyone does their off season prognostications Ive got to think this guy will be well ahead of where he was last year. Get him as a "throw in" now and thank me later...

[DangerCat]

So its been slow around here- I thought I might drop another guy that stuck out to me in last years draft- Mr. Tanner Molendyk- speed demon defenseman extraordinaire...

When I brought up Cristall it was beacuse he had production that was just a little bit silly for a second rounder- with M-dyke its sort of the opposite. I was really intrigued before last years draft to see where he went because despite his modest production he seemed to have the raw tools/instincts to be a productive offensive defenseman down the line- especially with that top speed of his. The narrative seemed to be that although he was noteworthy he was just sort of hedged out of the top pp usage in his draft year. He had supporters and he had detractors but the read by both sides seemed to be that he needed a season in that top position to show what he can do- and especially to see if he knew how to use his speed to generate offense- which is not always a given.

He finished with 37 points in 67 games in his draft year- but both sides were unsure which way he was going to develop...

This year he did indeed get "top dog" status on the blades and he put up... well he put upsome numbers... 10-46-56 in 50 games...

I usually really lean "out" on Nashville guys as a guy who wasted waaaay too much time on Cody Glass and is currently a not especially proud owner of Philip Tomasino- lol! BUT that criticism really does belong with the forwards. Nashville is actually very adept at finding and developing defensemen that can contribute on the scoresheet.

The other thing I love is hes really not getting a ton of hype in the fantasy community (so far). A lot of guys dont update their projections until the off season and this is a guy a lot of scouts were willing to write off as a gamble last season... Well that gamble is paying off so far and theres just not a ton of coverage on it. This is the perfect guy to throw in as an "extra" in any off-season trade talks. Right now hes a late round fringe pick but by the time everyone does their off season prognostications Ive got to think this guy will be well ahead of where he was last year. Get him as a "throw in" now and thank me later...

I scouted Tanner Molendyk for a fantasy site and needless to say I am incredibly impressed with him. A lot of people pegged him as more of a defensive guy but honestly he reminds me more of Tyson Barrie than anything. He will be better defensively than Barrie but I do think in time we can see PP1 and 50+ points out of him. His skating is phenomenal. Nashville is incredible at defensive development and drafting and I think this kid is a safe bet to at the very least put up 35-40 a year with a very real potential for more.

[Pengwin7]

A pop in D+1 numbers... in a CHL league...
Whoda thunk...

[random-d]

A pop in D+1 numbers... in a CHL league...
Whoda thunk...

Right, it's not terribly surprising but it's also not meaningless... you seem to give the impression that you believe Canadian juniors are the beer league of player development... I would like to know why.

[Pengwin7]

... you seem to give the impression that you believe Canadian juniors are the beer league of player development... I would like to know why.

You're intoning that very wrong.
And I don't appreciate that.
Anybody that knows my posts knows they are VERY-numbers based.
And eye-test.
I'm not wrong here.

KHL/AHL >> NCAA >> all CHL leagues



CHL is an age 16/17/18/19... with a spot-number of age20... league.

Just pop through the past 10 years of OHL stats.
And look at the "Age-Correlation" with the top 10 scorers.
Guys that are top10 in their draft year (age 17) are pretty dependable "hits".
If they are up there at age 18... maybes...
Maybes at 19 too...
And guys... as they hit age20... are not at ALL dependable.
[There's always some anomalies. DeBrincat shows as "19" - and he just played OHL a bit longer... great player. I'm not knocking EVERY player... but generalizations are fair.]

2014-15
129 D.Strome (17)
126 Marner (17)
120 McDavid (17)
112 Blandisi (20)
109 Dvorak (18)

2015-16
127 Labanc (20)
121 Dvorak (19)
116 Marner (18)
111 D.Strome (18)
107 Tkachuk (18)

2016-17
127 DeBrincat (19)
109 Raddysh (18)
100 Mascherin (18)
98 Palmu (19)
96 Suzuki (17)
94 Kyrou (18)

2017-18
115 Luchuk (20. Who? You are saying...)
112 Frost (18)
109 Kyrou (19)
100 Suzuki (18)
96 Sokolov (19)

2018-19
117 Robertson (19)
113 Brazeau (20)
109 Felhaber (20)
109 Frost (19)
107 Hancock (20)

etc.
etc.

Use this - go through some CHL seasons...
change the year, check the ages...
There's a pattern:
https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/s...ers-stats.html



The numbers are very, very real.
Guys turn 19 in the year after their draft (they have to be 18 on Sept.15 of draft summer)...
So they are the elders.
They *should* be dominating this league.
They do.
That's not a tell.
If they were drafted high, they are simply doing what they should.
And it doesn't have dependable correlation to NHL-competition.
It's like saying a 9year old that dominates his U10 league is going to be a sure-firer NHLer.
It's a bit... (insert adjective).


So among five-years of CHL ages... they are oldest OR 2nd oldest of group.
And... I believe teams are only allowed a certain number of "overagers" (age 20+... as of Dec.31)
https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/...e-chl.2744169/



This is a very.very.very.real thing.
19-year olds vs 17/18 year-old non-draftees is just very easy to dominate.

Whereas NCAA is age 18-22 typically.
And some teams, like Western Michigan - are even icing very polished 22+ year olds.



For anybody that this information is "new" to....
It was "new" to me once too.

I duped myself into Sam Steel's 131pt WHL season in his D+1.
I drafted Aaron Luchuk after he led OHL iin scoring.

We all learn this a first time around.
And it's real.
You can ignore it going forward... or realize it's a thing.
Your call.

[random-d]

Right, I get the point that it's sort of an expectation but is it not considered a positive if they fulfill that expectation? Sure there are going to be some anomalies but that seems like a poor strategy to write off players based on what is essentially the presumption that they will have faced a lesser level of competition. I don't buy this. Look at the volume of players/teams in Canadian leagues compared to the NCAA, look at the schedules... I'm not discounting the NCAA, I'm just saying that by shear volume of options you're going to have more misses in Canadian leagues, but I don't think that's sufficient enough reason to discount a player's individual performance based on that alone. If you have a pile of 25 marbles that contains only 10 red ones you're of course far more likely to randomly select a red one than you would be if that pile of marbles was 250.

This is not sound logic. To each his own, but I can't buy this.

[Pengwin7]

As an expansion - I "do"... put a ton of stock in the annual OHL coaches poll picks.
People know I love stats... but I love THESE articles MORE than the stats.

Especially - players that are voted high on "Playmaker" "Shot" "Smartest".
Here is this year's: https://chl.ca/ohl/article/2023-24-o...-poll-results/

If a draft-eligible player gets mentioned in this list... I get excited.
But to make the list after a draft - isn't so big - those players are 19 - have full grown bodies, they should be best.

IIRC, Adam Mascherin was in the "best shooter" list for 3-straight years...
But he's never panned out in the NHL.
OHL-elite shot.
AHL-"ok" shot.
NHL-meh game.
Didn't translate.
Hasn't even gotten a skate in the NHL.
Stats: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...php?pid=171423
Mascherin has some awesome OHL stats...
They didn't translate.

[some of you/us would've been gaga over those D+1 numbers: 100pts in 65gp in 2016-17.]


Mascherin is now retired... at age 25.
https://blackoutdallas.com/2023/10/1...n%20NHL%20game.

^Interesting side-convo thing from this article. Florida wasn't able to sign Mascherin... or... Zach Hyman... while Dale Tallon was GM in mid 2010s...

[Pengwin7]

...seems like a poor strategy to write off players based on what is essentially the presumption that they will have faced a lesser level of competition. I don't buy this....

When the players are in their draft year (turning 18)... there are lot of older (19/20) players.
So they are playing in a league with players MORE mature and MORE skilled than them - due to age.
This is what happens in the NHL.
So there's a lot to see there.
Draft-year-stock is important because of this.

In their D+1 year, they are turning age 19.
In the CHL leagues, these are elders. And they *should* be dominating. And that's not a tell.

I don't know how to say this any differently.
D+1 CHL stats are just the least dependable out there.
Many hockey prospect people have been tracking and referencing this for years.
I... honestly... truly... wouldn't say it publicly like this if I didn't believe it to be true.

(AJHL, BCHL, USHL are also difficult like this. USNTDP too. It's not a reason to write a player OFF.... but it is something that shouldn't be "extrapolated" if they are "oldest in league". So - guys like Cowan, age 19 - who I do like in a NHL C2/C3 way - or Molendyk... yeah, fine, grade them up on their age18 draft year stats. But people shouldn't discuss them like a "newfound gem" because they are killing it at age19 in an age16-19 league. This is the LAST time they are going to be elders AND the best in their league... if they are any good. Sam Steel, case-in-point.)

[CaveatEmptorer]

I mean I get the criticism- but with Molendyk the story was always that we needed to see him as the legit number one guy on a team before we could get real comfortable projecting him. He did that and he went POP!! If he had sputtered we'd be more than content to label him as an offensive bust- so Im not sure its completely meaningless that he didnt. Those are pretty heady numbers for a guy that started the season as an 19 year old- better than a point per game is not unheard of for a dman in the CHL but its still an eyebrow raiser no?

Im generally on board with what youre saying- we have to be careful in these situations- but were not writing him off because of it are we? For all we know he could have done this last year if he didnt have Aidan De La Georgendiere ahead of him on the depth chart. Thje logic is sound but Im not sure its totally applicable here. I mean what options do we have? Make our most meaningful projections on him off of a season where he played 2nd or even 3rd fiddle to the 18 and 20 year olds ahead of him? Like most of the guys I outline- Im just trying to start up a discussion around those guys who could outperform their draft positions by any meaningful degree and I think this season has to at least put him on the "watch list"

[random-d]

Did you have anything to say about Molendyk or did you just come along to shit on his "age based performance"?

[CaveatEmptorer]

Did you have anything to say about Molendyk or did you just come along to shit on his "age based performance"?

Is that directed at me? I started the thread on a player I really like and Im not shitting on anything- haha! Im saying his performance in his draft year- his production anyways- can largely be explained by his role and that as a 17 year old he was never really in a spot where he was going to leapfrog those guys ahead of him. In that year scouts said he had the raw tools and especially the speed to be a legit ppqb but it was harder to sign off on that assesment becasue he hadnt been utilized by the Blades that way. I think hes a fantastic talent- I mean I just said Im trying to draw attention to guys who can outperform their draft positions- lol! If you get a top unit ppqb dman out of this kid as a 2nd rounder youve done that. Heck even if hes more of a secondary scorer- Im intrigued.

[random-d]

No not you... The guy that had nothing to say but "ho-hum CHL sucks". ffs man, how do you get that backwards?

[Pengwin7]

No not you... The guy that had nothing to say but "ho-hum CHL sucks". ffs man, how do you get that backwards?

Man... I walked you through my whole reasons on that.
It's simply a D+1 CHL is undependable stat-thing.

I'll exit this thread and take some time off.
I was only trying to be helpful towards qualifying some of the D+1 CHL players that some people have been touting lately.

You are the one that jumped all over me.

Big sorry.

[CaveatEmptorer]

Man... I walked you through my whole reasons on that.
It's simply a D+1 CHL is undependable stat-thing.

I'll exit this thread and take some time off.
I was only trying to be helpful towards qualifying some of the D+1 CHL players that some people have been touting lately.

You are the one that jumped all over me.

Big sorry.

Hey for the record its a fair consideration- and I know where Im at with this stuff- if theres cause for concern Id rather hear about it than not. I welcome that info. Im not gonna lie- the next time Im looking at D+1 breakout Im probably going to do a double take if its a CHL guy- lol! I still think this ones a little different ftr- based on his opportunity in his draft year- but you shouldnt need to apologize for sharing the facts. Its crazy that people are taking potshots at you of all people- be a boring place without Pengwin7 around here...

Anyways- not trying to be sappy- have a gooder bud- and youre more than welcome to weigh in if youve got more to add- cheers!

[DangerCat]

Also for the record I do not hype this kid due to simply his numbers. I watched a lot of tape of him and he’s simply fantastic. Yes he should dominate the chl and that’s what he did! He played huge minutes in all situations and though he looks disinterested in defence he rarely gets burned. He is a really good player.