Evaluating team after draft

[TheMule_91]

Hey all. My regular one year league has turned into a keeper (max 1 year, 3 players including only 1 goalie) going forward and we had our draft tonight - far earlier than any other year. I wanted to ask for criticism on my draft and advice going forward on my team. League and team in signature below.

7) Matthews - I found out immediately before the draft I had 7th overall. My least favourite spot in 14 team leagues as I prefer B2B. I expected to draft Brady Tkachuk but the first picks were surprising and Matthews "fell" to me at 7th overall. I wrestled a bit but I wanted the 60 goal upside from Matthews more than Brady's periphs.
22) Thompson - My worst nightmare. Drafting 2 pure C with my first two picks. Other options were Pettersson, Miller, or a goalie as only Sorokin was gone. I thought Miller may fall to me round 3 and leaned in favour of Thompson for goal upside and shots, plus EP is a pure C himself.'
35) Miller - I gambled and won. Miller did fall to my 3rd pick and I wasted no time. Debated taking Dahlin or Josi but I wanted a forward who hits here with winger status.
50) Connor - I was looking at the players on the board and praying Connor would fall to me this round because I felt he was the only guy left in his tier. Dahlin, Josi, Hamilton were gone so no dmen here. Next wingers up, which I needed, were Debrincat or Hyman. I think I lucked out this round.
63) Bouchard - Needed a #1 dman and I'm an Oilers fan. Felt right. Maybe a reach, but the upside is high.
78) Keller
91) Seider - 2 pure C, a dman, and a few wingers. I wanted my 2nd dman and feeling the loss of Evander Kane I knew I needed hits so I went with Seider. Could have taken Nurse here but I like Seider more.
106) Caufield - 40 goal upside with high SOG at this point felt like a no brainer. RIP my +/- (dumb category)
119) Dobson
134) Husso - perhaps a reach. I think Detroit leans on him and the team improves a bit. Goalies at this point were pretty barren.
147) Ehlers
162) Terry
175) Werenski
190) Tippett
203) Grubauer
218) Cooley - hope this kid plays well and I can consider him as a keeper next season
231) Norris - probably gets hurt again. Could score 70 points if he's healthy?
246) Vejmelka
259) Hakanpaa
274) Barabonov

Overall, I think it's a solid, competitive team. I likely lack PIMs and perhaps Hits so I may need to trade for that - maybe Brady or Evander Kane. I have a fleet of mediocre goalies but Seattle and Arizona have a decent amount of off night games. I didn't want to take pure C early but I felt the picks were right.

Let me know your thoughts on the team and what to watch for!

Thanks.

[metaldude26]

Not exactly the roster I'd have built in a bangers league. Outside of Miller you aren't getting much mash on the wings. I think you might have made out better going Miller in R2 and Dahlin in R3 to be a bit more positionally sound and have better banger stats without losing really much scoring. But I think you already identified that trip up on Thompson.

The plus side is your wingers score and shoot A LOT so you'll rake in those categories. You might need to lean all your bench options towards bangers. More Hakanpaa, less Barabanov.

Your goalies... holy smokes. I think you'll be rolling them out every night trying to just tie wins and steal saves. You never know though. Goalies are tough to predict, but in a 14-teamer they were going go quick. I'd have wanted one where you took Keller or Caufield.

I like some of the value picks late like Werenski, Tippett, Norris and Cooley. Lots of growth potential here. They could all emerge as value keepers.

[TheMule_91]

Not exactly the roster I'd have built in a bangers league. Outside of Miller you aren't getting much mash on the wings. I think you might have made out better going Miller in R2 and Dahlin in R3 to be a bit more positionally sound and have better banger stats without losing really much scoring. But I think you already identified that trip up on Thompson.

The plus side is your wingers score and shoot A LOT so you'll rake in those categories. You might need to lean all your bench options towards bangers. More Hakanpaa, less Barabanov.

Your goalies... holy smokes. I think you'll be rolling them out every night trying to just tie wins and steal saves. You never know though. Goalies are tough to predict, but in a 14-teamer they were going go quick. I'd have wanted one where you took Keller or Caufield.

I like some of the value picks late like Werenski, Tippett, Norris and Cooley. Lots of growth potential here. They could all emerge as value keepers.

I agree on my early picks. I feel like I took what was probably best player available and not best player for my team. You’re probably right about dropping Barabonov (throw away pick) for another guy who hits a lot.

I was going to take Jarry instead of Keller but he went right before me. Maybe should have taken Demko instead of Caulfield for my #1 goalie. My goalies have me nervous lol.

Thanks for the critique and advice.

[TheMule_91]

Not exactly the roster I'd have built in a bangers league. Outside of Miller you aren't getting much mash on the wings. I think you might have made out better going Miller in R2 and Dahlin in R3 to be a bit more positionally sound and have better banger stats without losing really much scoring. But I think you already identified that trip up on Thompson.

The plus side is your wingers score and shoot A LOT so you'll rake in those categories. You might need to lean all your bench options towards bangers. More Hakanpaa, less Barabanov.

Your goalies... holy smokes. I think you'll be rolling them out every night trying to just tie wins and steal saves. You never know though. Goalies are tough to predict, but in a 14-teamer they were going go quick. I'd have wanted one where you took Keller or Caufield.

I like some of the value picks late like Werenski, Tippett, Norris and Cooley. Lots of growth potential here. They could all emerge as value keepers.

Question. Would you entertain the idea of trading Matthews for Brady at this point? I think a leafs fan owns him which could help. I'd give up goals and maybe points but gain PIMs and Hits from the wing. Or is that a bad idea this early?

I did drop Barbanov for M. Foligno to gain more hits.

[2014olympicgold]

The only criticism I really have is drafting Husso when you did. I know you needed a goalie, but Husso isn't going to win you categories, I would have heavily leaned into the 0-goalies strategy and drafted another player.

Outside of that, you have a team of players that will lean heavily on their upside in offense. If you get 80% of your rosters ceiling, you'll likely do very well. But if you get 50% of the teams ceiling, you might be in for a long season of 3-10 loses.

[TheMule_91]

The only criticism I really have is drafting Husso when you did. I know you needed a goalie, but Husso isn't going to win you categories, I would have heavily leaned into the 0-goalies strategy and drafted another player.

Outside of that, you have a team of players that will lean heavily on their upside in offense. If you get 80% of your rosters ceiling, you'll likely do very well. But if you get 50% of the teams ceiling, you might be in for a long season of 3-10 loses.

Thanks for the comment. Appreciate it.

Fully agree on Husso. Last season I hopped off the 0G train when Hellebyuck was there in round 6. This season I tried to do 0G as long as I could and then round 10 came and I got anxious about what was left lol. Hopefully one reach doesn't punish my team too much!

[metaldude26]

Question. Would you entertain the idea of trading Matthews for Brady at this point? I think a leafs fan owns him which could help. I'd give up goals and maybe points but gain PIMs and Hits from the wing. Or is that a bad idea this early?

I did drop Barbanov for M. Foligno to gain more hits.

I would entertain it, but I'm not into it straight up. Brady might hit another level of offense but he isn't there yet and you still have more categories that are pure scoring heavy so Matthews is the better player.

[RizzeeDizzee]

All your picks made sense in a vacuum, but less so when looking at the totality of circumstances, especially league settings and positional needs

[TheMule_91]

All your picks made sense in a vacuum, but less so when looking at the totality of circumstances, especially league settings and positional needs

Agreed. I think I focused heavily on goals, points, and SOG and missed the mark on hits and PIMs. Likely going to find myself trading often this season.

Can't rep any of you but thanks for commenting.

[Canucks_fan18]

I honestly really like it. Bangers can also be found, ensuring your getting high end producers has always been my strategy. In a 14 team league I really like your first 6 picks. I actually think Miller would of been better in round 2 then Thompson but you got both so it didn't really matter.

Although other's have called out your D a bit, I really think you got a solid top 4. Everyone of them should be carrying a 50 point floor with high upsides beyond that aside from maybe Dobson who's team will limit him.

Your goalies are on the weak side but with injuries and surprise performers, you should be able to mine some gold on the WW if your active. Overall, I would say this is a top 5 team in a 14 team league.

[TheMule_91]

I honestly really like it. Bangers can also be found, ensuring your getting high end producers has always been my strategy. In a 14 team league I really like your first 6 picks. I actually think Miller would of been better in round 2 then Thompson but you got both so it didn't really matter.

Although other's have called out your D a bit, I really think you got a solid top 4. Everyone of them should be carrying a 50 point floor with high upsides beyond that aside from maybe Dobson who's team will limit him.

Your goalies are on the weak side but with injuries and surprise performers, you should be able to mine some gold on the WW if your active. Overall, I would say this is a top 5 team in a 14 team league.

Thanks! I try to get guys like Svech and Kane for category coverage and scoring but it didn't work out this season sadly. So I'm forced to go the high scoring forwards plus late round banger players this season.

Honestly, after last season watching my buddy go like 20-2 over the season, I think goalies are entirely an unpredictable group in H2H. He had goalies worse than in my signature but playing WW he managed to dominate. I'll need to do that myself.

[2014olympicgold]

I also think Miller's benefits might not move the needle enough for your team to overcome Terry, Caufield and Tage's shortcomings. So I wouldn't be opposed to you exploring moving him. But I wouldn't do that now, assess your team after a few weeks and see what you need.

But the D might be well rounded enough where Miller is the guy that tips it to your favour.

[TheMule_91]

I also think Miller's benefits might not move the needle enough for your team to overcome Terry, Caufield and Tage's shortcomings. So I wouldn't be opposed to you exploring moving him. But I wouldn't do that now, assess your team after a few weeks and see what you need.

But the D might be well rounded enough where Miller is the guy that tips it to your favour.

Good points. I'll hold off on any changes until after the first few weeks to see how things shake out. I know 1 manager in particular way overdrafted for hits (according to Yahoo's wonky projections) and is projected to have over 500 more hits than the next manager. If I need hits he's who I'll try to work with.

[Canucks_fan18]

I think were overestimating HITs/PIMS. The setting are G, A, P, PPP, +/-, PIM, SOG, Hits // W, SV, GAA, SV%, SHO.

His team 90% of weeks should win

G,A,P,PPP and SOG.

After that +/- he will win less then probably 30% but will still win some weeks. And without streamers he might win hits or pims only 10% of the time. So basically he's going to win 5.5 out of the 8 player categories on Average. With goalie stats, I think he can ekk Wins and svs with volume, SO is usually a tie so not a big deal. GAA/SV% will be tough but again, I think like the +/- stat he can still win about 30% of the time. So almost 50/50 on goalie stats on average. So out of the 13 stats I got him having a good chance of winning 8. Which puts him at a 0.615% win percentage.

With all this being said he will need to manage his adds closely. More so with goalies but also if he happens to be close on hit/pims at the end of the week ensuring he gets some banger streamers to steal that spot.