6th overall for 13th and a 2026 1st

[JAC123]

How big of a drop off am I looking at from 6th to 13th?
For a 2026 1st?
Team in Sig.
This is a 25 year running lifetime pool. So we should still be around in 2026?
My team is in retool stage, not necessarily rebuild.
Trying to get younger, but stay competitive.
Thanks in advance.

[senryu]

If anyone knows the value of a 2026 1st rounder of unknown placement, that person is a supergenius and should be running an NHL team. Or has an unhealthy knowledge of Canadian 15 year old boys. [EDIT, I subconsciously was thinking of Pierre McGuire here who comes close to fulfilling both categories]

The question at hand is what is the difference between 6 and 13 in this draft. Honestly, I don't think it is much. Presume the standard top 5 go. (Bedard through Smith, Michkov included.) If you feel there is any chance of Michkov sliding to 6 in your league draft if he slips in the NHL draft, then you need to have 6th. If there's a way to hold off until July, I'd do that.

I don't think there's much difference between 6 and 13. 5's the cutoff, and then it slopes away gently. Statistical distribution based on actual NHL drafting suggests that the guy at 6 tends to work out better than the guy at 13 (duh), so 6 is definitely better. But in looking at mocks around the Internet, outside of the top defensemen, almost every forward can be found at 13, except for maybe Dvorsky, Leonard, and Perreault. Those guys always seem to be mocked at 12 or higher, at least that I've seen.

Identify the guy you'd normally take at 6 if the top 5 are gone. Then identify the forward you'd take if each of the top 5 and Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Leonard, and Perreault are all gone. Compare the two. Is that enough for a 2026 flyer? I doubt it, but your mileage may vary. Also consider that the guy giving the 2026 pick probably doesn't think it is worth anything. You can probably squeeze more juice out of that orange. Perhaps make it a 2025 if you can.

[JAC123]

Thanks for the insight.
First round picks in our league are hard to get.
Odds are that first would be 6th to 12th. But every pick has a chance to move to 1st in each round.
We have a weighted draft. 16th gets 16 balls where as 1st gets 1 ball in the draw.
This year I believe 8th place won the lottery?
This year we have an expansion team, so this years first round will be
Predominantly 1st round draft picks.
I also have 10th overall.
I agree with Mocks after the top 5 guys are all over the place.
As well I won’t be drafting a D at that spot.
Thanks a ton for the reply and well thought out post!

[metaldude26]

I typically like the idea of trading down and accruing extra 1st rounders. In your average draft the likelihood of nailing a star drops precipitously from 1 to about ~20 and then continues to drop but is much more level as you cascade downward. Every draft is its own beast, however, and comes with its own tiers and cliffs. For instance, in this draft the public mocks all seem to have a very clear top-5 and then another 10-15 that are universally well regarded but not necessarily destined for stardom. And within that 2nd tier, it's worth noting some of the prospects who aren't necessarily well regarded for their fantasy upside, so you may pare that group down a touch.

How you put together your own board (or use other boards as a proxy) should help guide your decision on whether to trade down or not. I think you have to hold the pick until the draft to see if one of the top-5 slips down to you. Then you can pick or demand an even higher price. Or maybe your board has the top tier as a group of 6, in which case I'd hold the pick regardless.

The second piece of this is how deep does your next tier go? Is it from 6-10? 6-12? If I'm trading down 7 slots, I'd want to be staying within the same tier of prospects, which is easier the farther down the board your pick is. At 6, literally right after the first cliff, you are primed to trade down but perhaps your next tier isn't large enough to trade down 7 slots.

Build your board using whatever tools you typically would and try to game out what who you can expect at #6 vs. #13. It also doesn't hurt to ask the other GM who they are trading up for.

It is helpful that you also have the #10 pick. Perhaps the player you want at #6 will be there at #10, that may also be wishful thinking, but that's why it helps to try and figure out who others are targeting. There is a realm where you select the same players at 10 and 13 that you would have at 6 and 10, which should be strongly considered in favour of trading down.

[stevegamer]

The answer is a big "it depends". On top of Steve's post about your tiers, you also have the following sorts of questions:

Is the team picking 13th of 16 and old team whose future looks bleak? Or are they a powerhouse?
Why did they end up so low?
How good is the GM?
What do future firsts get as a return generally over a year out?

I agree that if you think the guy you want at 6 may be there at 10, I'd do it. I would tell them that you want to wait until draft day to make the deal, in case someone slides you really want.

[This Guy]

Yeah, be open to it but make the deal at the draft.

[JAC123]

Well.
Went back to decline offer, and it had been pulled and replaced with another.
Kind of same as original, but then other picks both ways farther out.
Rejected it as well.
The trading team has a wealth of goalie prospects and he has protection issues.
So I asked him to come back with a goalie and we could talk.
So he came back with
M’y 6th overall and a first in 2025 with could be very late.
For his 13th over all and Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen.
I said yes please.
Thanks for all the help and reading of the post guys.
Greatly appreciated!

[metaldude26]

Wait, so you went from trading back and gaining a future 1st to trading back and giving a future first for UPL? Even if UPL hits, I don't like the process. Goalies are fickle, and not a position where I want to pay a premium especially when you indicate there were protection issues. Sounds like you did this other GM a healthy favour solving his problems and paying to do it.

[tweetdrivr]

Woof. Don’t like that at all. I didn’t read the whole thread - the 6th and 13th overall were this year? Nope.

[JAC123]

I am OK with it.
Yes I know goalies are fickle.
But our league has 3-5 teams at top.
And the rest working up. Most teams are carrying 4-6 goalie.
Plus the bottom tiers are all prospect heavy.
With my aging team, and trying to get younger. I will take a flyer on Luukkoonen.
Mads Sogard just got traded for 3 firsts.
So I am ok with it.
Thanks for your help guys.

[stevegamer]

I am OK with it.
Yes I know goalies are fickle.
But our league has 3-5 teams at top.
And the rest working up. Most teams are carrying 4-6 goalie.
Plus the bottom tiers are all prospect heavy.
With my aging team, and trying to get younger. I will take a flyer on Luukkoonen.
Mads Sogard just got traded for 3 firsts.
So I am ok with it.
Thanks for your help guys.

Given the bolded, this looks like a great deal for you. Especially if you can flip him for a first and somebody more certain.

[jman]

Yeah Sogard for 3 firsts makes this better, I'd be shopping UPL yesterday though.

I still am not a huge fan of this. You mentioned 'retool' over 'rebuild'. The player you can get at 6th overall will be more effective in a retool than the player you can get at 13th.