Roto League: Too many keepers, not enough slots

[DataNinja]

First time poster here. I play in a 12 team roto keeper League.

Skater stats we cover are: Goals, Assists, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocks, and PIM

Goalie stats are: Wins, SVP, GAA

We get to keep 1G, 2D, and 7 Forwards. We can roster 3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 1 Util, 7D, and 2G.

I finished middle of the pack last year mainly due to awful goaltending. Offense stats were strong, peripherals were middling. My draft picks are above average as I was a seller last year.

My for sure keepers are below:
G: Igor Shesterkin
D: Adam Fox, Dougie Hamilton
F: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner, Jake Guentzel

This leaves me with 3 forward slots to fill. Who would you pick of the below?

Mark Scheifele
Pavel Buchnevich
Josh Norris
Owen Tippett
Dawson Mercer
Brayden Schenn

Right now I'm leaning towards Buchnevich, Tippett, and Mercer. Scheifele has become unreliable, Schenn is old and will fall down the draft in my opinion.

Norris I'm unsure about. Seems Ottawa could have really used him this year and he gets the peripherals but not sure PP1 time is assured. But being out nearly all season means he isn't as visible to the more casual poolies in our group. Buchnevich is injury prone and really only good for points, but is reliable when skating. I think Tippett and Mercer are great breakout candidates next year nearing that 200 games played mark. But both of them are a bit less visible so perhaps I can gamble on drafting them.

Looking for your wisdom.

Thanks!

[LuigiC173]

Owen Tippett
Mark Scheifele
Pavel Buchnevich

You have a win now core and should surround it with players in their age ranges. Scheifele scored 40 plus goals last year with over 200 shots. He is only 30 and playing for a contract now. His shooting % is high but he's been at 16% or higher every year since 2016-17 aka he can aim. Don't be in such a rush to discard a good asset.

Owen Tippett is ready to breakout and it began last season. Agreed though you could theoretically redraft but if you let him back into the pool better to "reach" and make sure you get him.

Buch is an injury risk but he is super consistent and IMO worth a keep.

[Bubba55]

Mark Mark Scheifele is absolutely a keeper for me. He is the real deal, Luigi has nicely touched on this, and he most certainly is not a guy you are "hoping" might break out, he is already there and should be for a few more years. I also agree that Norris and Schenn will likely slip in the draft so I'm playing that card. Which leaves us with two of Tippet, Buchnevich and Mercer. Buch was better than a PPG player last year and while he is an injury risk, he should still outperform these other two offensively and right now he is clearly the better offensive player of the three IMO. In your format, I think Tippet is by far the better choice than Mercer and I also agree he is ready to break out. That break out should see him improve on the 49 pts he put up last year and if he puts up 60 to go along with 230 SOG, 125 Hits and 69 Blocks (his numbers from last year) you have yourself a very nice fantasy asset in a banger league. I like Mercer but I don't think he puts up those kinds of numbers, give me Tippet. So Scheifele, Buchnevich and Tippet for me.

[bbfl1987]

Welcome here! Scheifele, Buch, and Norris for me.

[jman]

Welcome here! Scheifele, Buch, and Norris for me.

Agreed. I am tempted to put Tippett in for Buch though.

[Molly The Hawks Fan]

Mark Scheifele has to be a keeper and I would also add Josh Norris to your keeper list. The last one I would go with Buch.