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Thread: Goalie Style Vs Team System- Part 2!!

  1. #1
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    The Great One

    Default Goalie Style Vs Team System- Part 2!!

    Heres a look at a couple more situations through the lens of the "Goalie Style Vs Team System" lens we touched on on Tuesday...

    LA Confidential

    So I want to start with Phoenix Copley here. One thing I kind of glazed over in terms of goalie traits are some of the more obvious traits required like dexterity, quickness and hand eye co-oordination. I think it’s a given that when were talking about NHL callibre guys that most of the time they score very highly in these areas but I do think that there are quite a few NHL hopefuls who basically just fall short in this regard and no amount of practice, training or positioning is going to fix it. Sadly I really feel like Phoenix Copley falls in this category. Id imagine hes put in an immense amount of time practicing, being coached, going over film and at a certain point his natural talents just kind of “capped out”. I think this manifests in things like a “weak glove” or being “vulnerable stick side” and given enough time to scout or adapt to this goalie most NHL teams will be able to gameplan around them. In terms of the worlds population Phoenix Copley might be one of the very best in the world but in terms of NHL goalies I just don’t think hes an NHL callibre goalie and Im mostly basing this on goalie scouts/coaches who are saying the same thing. This type of guy can have success over the short term but once variance kicks in for real or a team gets a “book” on him- the wins become a lot harder to come by. I think Phoenix Copley is a terrific AHL goalie who can absolutely take a shot here at earning a backup gig- but I don’t believe he is in the long term plans for the Kings. If you can use him now during the playoffs- then ride him hard! If however youre not contending this year Id be looking to move him to someone he WILL help. Copley was a GREAT own this year (He turned Elans whole season around on Keeping Karlsson!!)- but I dont think he has the chops to be an impact player over the long term. If you own him I would NOT drop him- hes got value until LA addresses their goaltending through a trade or a callup and even then he probably still has value until next year. After that things take a turn for the dubious...

    Phoenix Copley is NOT a good fit for any team

    For a lot of years- I think in the Kings you saw a very defensively minded team with the personnel in place to limit the quality and quantity of shots being faced by their goalie. Its interesting that many pundits projected Bernier to be the goalie of the future here but he seemed to struggle. Quicks ascension was sort of a surprise and I feel like it speaks to how good of a match his style was with their system. I think both goalies were making the easy “gimme” saves but Quicks aggressive style and insane acrobatics allowed him to add a few more “clutch” saves when the game was on the line. Their relationship basically exemplified how a great system could prop up a goaltender who might rate closer to “above average” than to “elite”. Now don’t get me wrong- I think Quicks reflexes are tremendous and Id certainly qualify them as elite but his junior numbers show that when he was “left on an island” he really struggled- which is traditionally the case with less so called “technical” guys.

    So what kind of goaltender is Cal Petersen? Im glad you asked cause Ive done a ton of digging! He is very much in the Quick camp as an athletic/reactive type- maybe not quite as out there as Quick but definitely has similar traits. I think he may have started out with a bit more traditional mindset but I would not be surprised if the coaching staff played to the strengths of their two netminders and focused on their reflexes and athleticism- I mean the match had worked famously with Quick- if it aint broke donÂ’t (Quick) fix it right?

    I think the issue is that the Kings system has opened up a little bit just by virtue of adding youth and a few more mobile/transition dmen. That would explain why Copleys “steak and potatoes” style was effective on this team- it probably felt like a breath of fresh air as prior to that any Dman not named Doughty was pulling double duty as they scramble to settle down the chaotic rebounds and net front game playing in fron of such an atypical goalie style. Although Im not a fan of Copley long term it does show that the Kings could stand to benefit from a bit more structured play out of their netminder!

    The good news here is twofold. One- Petersen will get a legitimate chance to improve his fundamentals in the AHL. In fact “locked on Sharks” podcast had a goalie guru on recently who said he’d like to see exactly that- practice using the posts as anchors, start gameplanning a style that doesnt see him out “swimming” so often- basically start simplifying his game and putting himself in good positions to let the puck hit him and the trickle down effect is that he becomes more predictable/reliable to his own team who can calm down a little bit and get a some confidence going. The good thing is that the Kings have some fantastic youth coming up (maybe especially) on D and any sutter coached team will require buy in defensively. It might take another year or two but I do think they get back to that defensive team buy in they were known for. Its possible they go the other route but my moneys on the former. And if that’s the case then…

    Petersen is a fantastic fit for the Kings!

    Petersen going down to the AHL may look like a death sentence but its actually a phenomenal play from a developmental perspective. He can get in a lot of actual game time to start implementing some more structure and by all accounts hes taken to the teams demands with his usual fiery gusto. If he can add some structure and the team gets back the team defense type structure theyre basically known for- we could be looking at Jonathon Quick version 2.0! There is a downside here if either of these things fail to coalesce but color me optimistic as an owner today!

    CONTINUED ON NEXT COMMENT

  2. #2
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    The Great One

    Default Goalie Style Vs Team System- Part 2!!

    The Boston Battle

    First off I have to apologize- in my first blip I suggested that Ullmark was more of an athletic/reactive goalie and actually I was straight up WRONG there- lol! I think I got my wires crossed with another former buffalo guy but whatever the case- Ullmark has the size (6”6!)to excel as a positional goaltender and everything Im reading backs that up- hes completely unflappable, good in high pressure situations and is basically known for never taking risks- hes not out there gambling on his reads. I should also point out that his reflexes are no joke either and Im pretty sure Dobber actually did say something in this regard way back when. Although his style does seem to be somewhat risk averse- he certainly has the ability to flash the leather when that’s whats required. More than one scout said he played a very modern style- sometimes referred to as “Battle-fly”.
    This is a good time to clarify something I touched on earlier- although I really do feel that each type of goalie has a situation where they seem to thrive better than the other- its also true that a “wide open” system is just plain harder to play in (and look good while doing it) and that a tight defensive structure can benefit basically any type of goalie!

    The premise I laid out is that the team gets the most out of a strategic/positional type goalie when theyre playing a wide open brand of hockey where maybe a team gets the most out of a reactive/risky goalie when they play a tight defensively focused one. So while his numbers were pretty pedestrian and wins were hard to come by in Buffalo- they certainly weren’t “bad” and we have to keep in mind that was almost a historically bad Sabres team! I think its hard to gauge exactly what kind of asset they had in that situation so kudos to Bruins scouting staff who seemed to have identified a diamond in the rough! When he came to the Bruins he was inserted into a very good defensive lineup- maybe the best in the league- and that’s not a bad place for either style if were being honest. I think that gives us some important context to our model. I think a wide open style really benefits from a positional guy it appears that’s not always the case the other way. A strong defensive system will indeed prop up either style- and if my premise has any truth to it then maybe it means a positional goalie will have even more value to a wide open team whereas the athletic style “needs more help” to succeed. So while its possible Ullmark may have MORE value to a wide open team- his value to the Bruins is just as immense already. Its worth noting that many scouts are quick to point out that in Ullmarks case you have a bit of an anomoly in that his athleticism is absolutely fantastic despite the fact that he plays a risk averse style that doesn’t always have to lean on reaction speed. We can and likely are seeing the best of both worlds here and for that reason I dont think he will falter anytinme soon even though I have to write (and I hate that I do!!)...

    Ullmarks stryle is not a perfect fit in Boston!

    That was actually difficult to write! I think playing on Boston really helps ANY goaltender and Ullmarks numbers bear that out. I also think his inhuman reflexes play against type a bit here and really help him to thrive in a system that requires quality saves over quantity of saves. In terms of fantasy I think its fair to say for our purposes Ullmark absolutely DOES fit in Boston and maybe the bigger takeaway from all of this is that an athletic/reactive goalie on a wide open team is the worst combination.
    Ok so we learned something here! What can we infer about Swaymans chances though? I think the most prevalent takeaway here is that Ullmarks success is both a blessing and a curse. Ullmark has burrowed in like a tick at this point and Im really having a tough time seeing the organization move away from him now- even after his contracts up in two years. It’s a nightmare for us Swayman owners but the truth is they may NOT want to move away form this player or even this tandem for that matter! The numbers for both absolutely sparkle- Ullmark may get the edge- hes been “comically good” according to Cat Silverman- but Swayman is substantially younger andhe actually has more shutouts this season. The nightmare is that they might not change anything.

    When we get to Swayman we have some similarities and we have some key differences. Right off the bat the size is similar- at 6”3 he actually does compare favorably to Ullmark here and in terms of modern goaltending hes right in the sweet spot for size- where hes big enough that he takes up a lot of the net but youre not necessarily sacrificing any real agility or vertical mobility. The key difference is that although Swaymans foundation is very strong (Cat Silverman called his technique a joy to watch)- he couples it with a very aggressive (read:risky) style! So the example I used here was primetime Quick and the cups he won in LA but maybe a better example would be the mose aggressive of riverboat gamblers- the tea party terror himself- Tim Thomas! While Timmy T might be seen as a “pure scrambler” (which would NOT be a great characterization of Swaymans play) it does show what a “risky” style looks like on a tight Boston team- and the view is pretty good! As deeply as Ullmark seems to be entrenched Swayman actually compliments their style better. Again Ullmarks stupendous reflexes mitigate his shortcomings a lot more than your average “positional” guy but the truth is that Swaymans style is tailor made for the B’s.

    Jeremy Swayman is a perfect fit for the Bruins!

    When the Bruins acquired Ullmark I just did NOT see this good of a fit but even though their styles dont seem to be a match this is a goalie who can do exceptionally well in the Bruins system and I no longer feel like thats going to change anytime soon. I really think they go with the tandem for at LEAST the full four years Linus is signed for and after that its anybodies guess. The good news is that if Swayman is ever given the keys to the kingdom- he should be a fantastic fantasy own as his style is a perfect match and lets just get to the point here. Realistically Swayman is just all around a great goaltender and I think were seeing that Boston is just a straigfht up great landing spot ofr any goaltender so this style meshing really is just icing on a goalie cake gushing with gooey goodness!!

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    Default Re: Goalie Style Vs Team System- Part 2!!

    I see Copley as a good backup behind a workhorse starter (who's also not injury prone).

    Tampa Bay is a team that comes to mind.
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    The Great One

    Default Re: Goalie Style Vs Team System- Part 2!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    I see Copley as a good backup behind a workhorse starter (who's also not injury prone).

    Tampa Bay is a team that comes to mind.
    I could see that- i should maybe tweak it to say starter. Tbh im also just going by what I read too- I don't have any real insider info- I had read a lot of stuff like that and then cat backed it up in her interview. I think he has an immense amount of one year value (which is worth acquiring!)- but my concern is his long term outlook

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