Goalie Style Vs Team System- And Some Inferences On The Big Three Goaltending Prospects (Long Read)

[Fighting_Emu]

Ive done a lot of research on modern goaltending recently and one of the more compelling elements to me is how certain goalie’s styles mesh better with certain teams systems. You can have a seemingly mediocre goalie seems to thrive in a new system like say an Ullmark or a Vanecek. The opposite also seems to be true as well. We also see guys like Binnington whose value seems to spike and as the teams overall attack changes so too does their effectiveness in net. There have also been a litany of examples of supposed cant miss goalie prospects who cant seem to find solid ground when theyre brought up to the parent club- like an Elvis Mierzlikins or a Spencer Knight. I think the goalie style vs team system is an interesting one andit doesn’t get a lot of digital ink!

A good place to start might be by defining the different styles here and maybe look at where theyre best suited. Although there are a plethora of styles, combinations of styles, and even combinations of different combinations- I think when were talking about style were talking about two ways of approaching the position that almost seem to be diametrically opposed with each other. They seem to slide almost on a bit of a y axis with goalies who tend towards one extreme generally be weaker in the other extreme and vice versa- with all styles regardless of the goalie falling somewhere along that spectrum.

The first one might be labelled as technical or positional. These types of goalies are risk averse and they tend to put themselves in the best position to stop the puck and they operate out of that spot. This style favors a big body type- and because it relies less on agility or athleticism it might be a bit more forgiving in terms of conditioning. It does require mental discipline however and if a goalie is billed as emotional or “fiery” chances are they’ll struggle with this side of the play. A good technical goalie is confident they were in the best spot to stop any given shot and if that one particular puck gets through it comes down to variance and not bad play. They favor an economy of motion, they use their posts as anchors, they play a very structured game and their skill is evident in subtle ways like rebound control. At their best they play a quiet, poised game where they might not even be all that noticeable but by the end of the season their numbers are consistently good. They have less blowouts but they have less “great games” or shutouts as well. A great comparison for this type of goalie would be Martin Brodeur who had an elite career that exemplifies this type of approach. He took up space in the net, he was a master at putting rebounds where he wanted and although he could make a highlight reel save his overall conditioning was sometimes a question mark. He didn’t always look busy but he consistently led the league in save percentage and GAA.

The second stylistic leaning might be described as athletic or reactive. These goalies favor a fluid structure to their game that sacrifices some positioning but allows them to utilize their incredible athleticism/agility to make alarming saves! Size is not as important here and in fact many smaller goalies lean towards this approach because it improves their chances of being successful. Being in peak physical fitness is a requirement for this style and if youre not you can become your own worst enemy as we saw with guys like Kari Lehtonen and Rick DiPietro as it becomes literally dangerous to use this style if youre not in good shape. This style favors risk takers and the tendency here is towards emotional goaltenders who are driven not only to win but to make the “big save”. A good athletic goalie is not worried about positioning and if they find themselves out of it they can rely on their raw talent to come up with a save. They can appear erratic and disorganized in net as they flail their limbs around wildly and can end up “fishtailing” way out of their crease. At their best they play a flashy, awe inspiring game where they’ve made a handful of saves they had no business making. They’ll probably have more “great games” or shutouts but theyre also prone to laying the odd egg as well where they get blown out of the water. While Hasek might be the classic example – Im going to use Jonathon Quick. At 6’1 he certainly wasn’t huge but he was inhumanly flexible and even acrobatic at times. He had very poor nights along the way but he also had nights (or in some cases full playoff series) where he almost single handedly demolished any hope of victory for the opposing team. Although it was an erratic journey to get there he also consistently posted fantastic save percentage and GAA by the time everything was all said and done.

Now that we’ve established the two extremes- the interesting question becomes- where does each one thrive?

So lets start with a strong defensive or tight/team defense system. I think most people would say any goalie would thrive there- and to an extent they wouldn’t be wrong. Picture this though: as a goalie youre facing less shots and the quality of those shots is not as great as it normally is. In effect the “easy shots” become automatic. A rigid technical goalie is never stepping out of the confines of that system because its normally imperative that they give themselves the best chance they can to make every safe. However if the bulk of those shots are very easy or automatic- that rigidity has less of a playoff- because almost any NHL calliber goalie can handle the shots they see in that type of smothering system. However if youre game was predicated on making reads and acting on them aggressively- youre getting the gimme saves (and you have to focus less to get them) and now youre adding three or four “ridiculous” saves that purely technical goalie couldn’t make if they tried. You don’t need the economy of motion espoused on the other side because youre not called on as often and when you are you can put you’re inhuman quickness/agility on display. Ullmark would be a fantastic example of how this being the case. I think Ullmark was pretty average but in a wide open system like he was in Buffalo- he looked downright bad at times! Going to Boston- his weaknesses like consistency and positioning were mitigated by strong team defense but his ability to make absolutely unreal saves when the team needed it all of a sudden had more value when he wasn’t facing fifty shots (and letting in five of them). This is what you can achieve when you marry the right goalie to the right system.

On the other side- you might say NO goalie would thrive in a wide-open or guns blazing offensive team and again you’d (sort of) be right! The thing is that if youre facing a big workload where youre being left hung out to dry on a semi-regular basis- playing the smart/strict positioning style becomes your best bet for survival! You put yourself in the best position to stop the puck and rather than taking risks you play more passively and put the onus on the other team to think outside the box. If youre facing a lot of rubber- that economy of motion becomes a godsend! Playing the odds becomes tantamount to success and that rigid structure becomes your best friend! You also help in a critical way by being responsible (and predictable)- your team can count on reliable puck management from their goalie to facilitate the offense or breakout systems which is where their focus is already. It also lets you play a steady/poised game and if you do get beat (which WILL happen in an offensive system) its easier to chalk it up to variance and keep your confidence in tact. A good example of this might be Braden Holtby (in his prime) with the Capitals. The Caps were renown for their run and gun style centered around their offensive supertsras getting it done every night and defense be damned! Holtby played with a cool demeanor that was almost obsessively structured and if you don’t believe me- google the term “Hotbyisms”-lol! He put himself in the best spot to stop the bulk of the shots without necessarily making a ton of “highlight reel” saves (yes he had some- but not a disproportionate amount)- and more importantly they could count on him to show up every night and do his thing without getting frustrated by the lack of support or the amount of rubber he faced.

[Fighting_Emu]

I think there are a handful of other relevant traits as well that influence the success of goalies on both sides of the stylistic divide.

Puckhandling- Regardless of your style or skillset theirs an almost completely different area that a goalie can make a difference and that’s in their stickhandling/transitional play. Guys like Marty Turco were renowned for it and his case it elevated what was likely a good goalie to a pretty great one! Im not talking about rebound control here- Im talking about skating out of your crease and being able to play the puck effectively to a short, medium, or long transition. If you look at St. Louis- you can mark their shift in success the year they won the cup back to that trade deadline. I think adding some key personell was critical but the key was that they shifted their whole attack to include Binnington as the first phase of their breakout and although he was a pretty “meh” goaltender he was actually quite strong as a stickhandler and passer. Now I was never high on Binnington and his being an absolute clown doesn’t help matters in that regard- but you can see where hs starts to lose effectiveness as the team eventually shifts away from that breakout style again and his biggest strength as a netminder is nullified. We can use this narrative in a predictive way if we look at maybe a team like Toronto. Im pretty high on Samsonov but outside of him being an athletic/reactive goalie on a more wide open(ish) team which is already not an ideal match- I think a lot of his success might be predicated on whether or not they want to utilize him on the breakout- an area he has not traditionally been effective at. Im very high on Ilya Samsonovs talent but that’s two areas where he doesn’t mesh very well with the Leafs. Time will tell how this plays out- and its certainly possible that skill trumps fit here and he finds a way to be successful anyways but for now Im avoiding TO’s goaltending.

IQ/Instinct- So Roberto Luongo was a well known poker player and I always loved how he compared the two! You can certainly gamble in poker but the skill of the game comes in knowing when its beneficial or at least equitable to do so. In terms of our application here Im referring to the goaltenders ability to read the play and in some cases even read the player. In a two on oh I think a Technical goalie would likely play the odds and play to the shot whereas an Athletic type might cheat towards the pass for an opportunity to make a five alarm save. Goalie IQ or instinct is knowing when to play against type. If the puck carrier is Robert Thomas and the extra skater is Vrana- a goalie with a strong IQ/instinct would likely play the pass regardless of their favored disposition the bulk of the time. Conversely if Charlie Coyle had it they might well play the shot. I think this might be the biggest factor in separating a good goalie form a great one personally and when a young goalies hockey IQ is seen as problematic that’s a big red flag for me. I was listening to an interview with Grubauer who was saying how it was his biggest mandate in Colorado to recognize what system they were utilizing and how he could function the best in that system. It was also suggested Darcy Kuemper never really considered that sort of “meta” angle and was happy to just focus on doing what he did best no matter the situation. I think Kuempers a great goalie but you could see how that would be to a players detriment in the long run.

Mental Fortitude- The last big one here for me is a goalies ability to “shake off” a bad goal or even a bad game. I get leery when I hear too much about a young goalies emotions or outbursts during his development. On one hand you love to see the passion when someone like Tuuka Rask breaks his stick after losing a shootout in junior- but you have to wonder if that kind of emotion would be an anchor long term? I think the biggest way its relevant here is either being on a team that lets a lot of goals in or in terms of being in a fish bowl media market like Toronto or Montreal. In either case a goalie’s mental toughness or resiliency would be critical to their success in certain markets. When youre talking about the chemistery between a goalies style and the teams system I do think that this is a factor.

[Fighting_Emu]

So given what we now know about which styles thrive in which systems- what can we extrapolate about our big three prospect goaltenders?

Well with Wallstedt we have a guy who exemplifies the technical/positional style we outlined above. His positioning is beyond reproach, his economy of motion is staggering (borderline robotic!) and hes thriving in all the ways we want to see this type of goalie develop- rebound control, lateral mobility, etc. If he can continue to hone his instincts start to get a “book” going on the players hes facing in the NHL the skies the limit for him.

Where does this type of goalie fir in Minnesota?

Well like we discussed they tend to flourish in wide open systems where theyre left almost on island. If you’ve got a guy who can play the percentages with an almost obsessive drive- the result is a lot of games with a low goals against- then from there you lean on your offense to do its thing- a thing you give them the confidence to do with youre reliable/safe play. That would be a match made in heaven for a team like Minnesota! If Im being honest I cant think of a lot of teams Wallstedt wouldn’t thrive on but to maximize their value I really think this is the type of combination you want to see. Having Wallstedt keeping the goals allowed down to a couple a night means Kaprizov, Boldy, Rossi et all only have to score about three in any given night and given their respective talent that’s not what id call a tall order.

Wallstedt is a PERFECT FIT for Minnesota.

In Askarov we get a great example of the other side of the argument! Askarov is your archetypal athletic/reactionary goaltender. This type of goalie occasionally sacrifices sound positional play but rewards you with a ten bell highlight reel save that other goalies just might not be able to make. His consistency might be his superpower that sets him apart from other so called athletic goalies which likely speaks to a strong foundational training. His conditioning is great by all accounts and hes got a fiery drive to win as well- all tendencies that are vital towards having success with this style.

Where does this type of goalie fit in Nashville?

Well if we go with the above narrative we see that a strong defensive system that minimizes the quality and quantity of shots means that sticking rigidly to a safe positional structure becomes less important. It also limits the number of goals that might be termed as “brain farts” from a style that comes across as undisciplined or scrambly by some. This lets them do their thing and play their reads aggressively, lean on their superb athleticism and provide the team with a handful of saves that they have no real business making! The end result is that although they may lay an egg now and then- you end up seeing a disproportionate amount of shutouts, first star outings, and highlight reel saves. So is there any question where Nashville sits on this scale? No of course there isn’t. Nashville is as committed to smart, smothering defense as any team in the league. Saros is an undersized goalie who has put up above average numbers with extremely above average play on his part. Askarov will fit in like the missing puzzle piece here. His effort will feel less desperate and I wouldn’t be surprised if that had an overall calming effect on the defense which will allow their elite mobile defenders to start to open up their breakout game just a little bit.

Askarov is a PERFECT FIT for Nashville.

In Cossa we have a bit of an odd duck here and I think moreso than any other elite goalie weve come across- the organization that drafted him, his perceived role in that organization, and his controversial draft ranking will have a definitive impact on how his career plays out. So what is his style? Well hes a bit of an odd duck to be honest. Hes got many of the traits youd love to see in technical/positional goalie- great size at 6”6- being maybe the biggest one, but hes also extremely agile for his size. Hed have to be categorized as more of an emotional/risk taking type of player but questions persist as to wether he has the overall hockey iq/instinct to thrive in that role. Hes a high risk goaltender and his decision making needs work- that’s not an ideal combination. Cat Silverman (a great read/listen btw!) had him as the third or even 4th ranked goalie in that years draft in terms of pure skill at the time they were drafted. His size and one outlier season pushed him up to heights no one could have foreseen and that ight end up being both a blessing and a curse. The good news is that hes still a work in progess, hes shown he can string together an elite season behind a strong/winning team, and his raw size/athleticism just scream upside. The team hes going to has a plan though- and with the right coaching/training its easy to see a reality where he thrives down the road.

Where does this type of goalie fit in Detroit?

So Detroit maybe moreso than the other teams listed here are a team in transition. If we do a little bit of vcreative extrapolation however its not hard to see what direction that transition is headed. Building a D-core around Seider, Evinsson and even Walman is not a bad place to start! They all have the size, physicality and IQ to limit both the quality and quantity of shots faced by any incumbent netminder. Also we don’t have a lot to go on for what the forwards will look like but newly minted franchise center Dylan Larkin plays with a healthy commitment towards team defense and he has more than enough speed to be effective in that role. Assuming this Yzerman penned roster does skew towards a sound defensive plan that’s good news for a guy like Cossa who seems driven to make the big saves hes known for! I think his current struggles now (although hes had a run of success in the very short term) speak to the fact that this player was never the “gamebreaker” we maybe thought he was when he was drafted with an early first- but if they get the team defense in place to mitigate the “brain farts” he might be prone too- then the ten bell saves he makes will shine even brighter. Moreso than other goalies on this list- Cossa needs a lot of things to go right to have consistent success but based on the teams first round investment in him- I think hell be given the time to acclimate to the speed of the NHL and I would not be surprised if the team gameplans AROUND both his strengths and his limitations. He’ll have to stay focused on his conditioning and buy in on the coaching but on paper the fit here actually is right.

Cossa is a GOOD FIT for Detroit (But maybe Detroit is a PERFECT FIT for Cossa!)

So nothing really groundbreaking with Wallstedt- I think he could play almost anywhere and have success but its interesting to note that the pairing here is actually ideal. I have a couple more questions about Askarov than most it seems but not only is Nashcvilles defensive system looking like a boon for him- it actually looks like it will compliment his style quite well! I think of the three Cossa is a clear step down and that pains me to say as a Cossa owner. It might be safer to think of him as a second or third round draft pick in terms of talent level but that pick placement becomes relevant in terms of how theyll view him going forward. If we look at how long NJ seemed to be trying to smash a square peg into a round hole with Blackwood we get a first hand look at what kind of treatment a high goalie pick ends up getting. In this light however his recent struggles start to make more sense and when you understand he was always going to struggle it may make it easier to digest the ups and downs he'll likely face in his development. I dont think hes really further ahead or behind in his development today than where he should be and on the bright side the raw [package here is incredible, the team hes going to does look like a fit, and if history is any indicator hell get plenty of chances to prove his mettle when he gets here!

Id like to do a part two and look at a few more precarious goalie situations- especially LA, TO, NJ and STL. Itd use the above contextual analysis so sort of a part 2. Let me know if theres any audience for that. Cheers guys!
- Angry Flightless Bird

[RollyJ]

Real interesting read! I'd also be interested in analysis on Dustin Wolf, Akira Schmid, and Hugo Alnefelt, among others.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

This has been AWESOME to read! Thanks Emu. Also as a beer league goalie for a couple teams, I was laughing out loud this morning while reading your mental profile of the "second stylistic leaning". This is me 100%. Get out of my head bro! Haha.

Question for ya - how many years before Cossa "sticks" in the big leagues?

[ross10019]

This is indeed an awesome post, kudos!

I know you're dealing with prospects here, but I would just LOVE to see you apply this same analysis to a few young guys already in the league but not yet fully established as workhorse starters - for example, Swayman, Knight, Kochetkov, UPL.

[Fighting_Emu]

This has been AWESOME to read! Thanks Emu. Also as a beer league goalie for a couple teams, I was laughing out loud this morning while reading your mental profile of the "second stylistic leaning". This is me 100%. Get out of my head bro! Haha.

Question for ya - how many years before Cossa "sticks" in the big leagues?

Haha thats awesome!! Almost spit my coffee out reading that lol!

Goalie prospect voodoo is still a study in progress for me but I generally refer people to that ramblings this year (I'll have to track it down so I can give proper kudos)- but it pointed out that no goalie (basically anywhere) has had success before their age 25 season. The good news is they usually start seeing NHL action a year or two earlier and while they probably won't help your fantasy team in that time frame - you can often get a clearer picture of where they're at by then and with a guy like Cossa thats going to be important.

So hes 20 now- and basically sitting time between the echo and ahl right now. It looks like he'll be 3 years minimum before we see him getting a handful of starts and you might want to bet that he's closer to 4 years but thats not a bad thing with him as hes got a bit more work to put in than your average first rounder and it gives Detroit more time to implement a sound defensive structure around their young guns.

The last thing I didn't address is that Yzerman seems to know something we don't here and has had success with big goalies in the past. Thats actually why I drafted him but time will tell if thats actually a factor...

[Fighting_Emu]

Real interesting read! I'd also be interested in analysis on Dustin Wolf, Akira Schmid, and Hugo Alnefelt, among others.

I was going to do Wolf if I did another one and as a Schmid owner I'd love to tackle that...

[Fighting_Emu]

This is indeed an awesome post, kudos!

I know you're dealing with prospects here, but I would just LOVE to see you apply this same analysis to a few young guys already in the league but not yet fully established as workhorse starters - for example, Swayman, Knight, Kochetkov, UPL.

I'll try to get a couple of these guys in the next one- count on swayman for sure! In a lot of cases I have to do a bunch of research so the next one might take a bit but I want to try and address the la situation and take a look at Toronto too...