Wyatt Johnston - where do you project him now?

[loppantorkel]

Is he potentially a new Bergeron? For some reason his rookie season seems pretty impressive and I'm not sure how to value him going forward...

[The Towers]

He's an absolute gem. Yes, his comparison to a Bergeron is relevant with respect to his 200-foot game. His giveaway/takeaway ratio will be lights out over his career. His IQ is off the charts. He will score more points than Bergeron with all those other attributes in full form. Great personality a100% dedicated to his profession. He's living with the Pavelski family this season for a reason

[loppantorkel]

He's an absolute gem. Yes, his comparison to a Bergeron is relevant with respect to his 200-foot game. His giveaway/takeaway ratio will be lights out over his career. His IQ is off the charts. He will score more points than Bergeron with all those other attributes in full form. Great personality a100% dedicated to his profession. He's living with the Pavelski family this season for a reason

Thanks. He does seem to have plenty of things going for him, besides putting up a decent amount of points in his 19 old rookie year. I haven't seen a huge amount plays by him, but I've seen a number where he just steals the puck and gets a point and that seems like a rare thing at this stage.

The question in fantasy is when he becomes relevant and what to give up for him at this point. He's currently ranked around 400 in our league as a pure C and is taking up a roster spot just for the possibility of adding him as a keeper for the next season. It's easy to jump in on unproven talents too early, otoh it's nice to get them first, before they become a star player.

[bnet]

I own him in my league, I grabbed him around the mid season point last year and have held on to him since, he will expire this year as a free carry and I will have to use a roster spot on him to keep him. I am, as well as a lot of others, are very high on him, but it's hard to judge when a player will take off and reach his potential stardom level. For every Kaprizov or Makar that come into the league and light it up immediately, a dozen prospects take years til they are legit 1st liners or top pairing D.

I honestly don't expect much more from Johnston next year then this year, I think he'll have around 20-ish goals and 40-ish points and be used in pretty much the same way, top line in Dallas I see staying intact of Hintz/Robertson/Pavelski.
I think 2024-25 season is where things get interesting, Pavelski's contract is over and even if they re-sign, at the age of 40, I don't see him being a top line, maybe not even top six player anymore. Even if Johnston doesn't get the coveted spot next to those two, the kids will likely be getting ready to take over and could have a 2nd line of Johnston/Stank/Bourque and I could see a decent chance of Johnston being on that 1st pp unit and be used in all situations.

This is a player, whom at the age of 19, already has the trust of the coach to go out and play in the last few minutes of a game, has started to get some time on the pk last few weeks and I could see him being one of those forwards that hovers close to 20min a night more often then not.
I don't see huge point production from him though, maybe at his peak a consistent 70-ish point guy.

[Fighting_Emu]

I think he's the next big star personally. He will outplay Himtz for that topline role and while Roop will be a very solid 2c option I think we'll see pretty quickly his gamebreaing numbers were largely buoyed by aging with Robertson. Hell be better suited to a 65ish point 2c role. Anywhere else I'd say Johnston would be a defensively elite 70-80 point player- in that Aho, Barzal type of range but I think he's got the chops to really click with Robertson and can see a few 90+ seasons in their future. I'm trying to get him in most of my leagues but its a bit of an open secret I think lol! Its actually funny on the pdocast Dimitri was saying no one wanted to talk about Johnston in his draft year cause a whole bunch of teams were high on him and they didn't want word to get out. He sort of did end up sliding too so maybe it worked? Everyone keeps saying shane wrote is the next Bergeron but I think Johnston os- only he might have an extra 20 points worth of upside especially in big D with JRob and the boys...

[loppantorkel]

Thank you! Rep given where it was allowed. Should be interesting to see how he does in the playoffs.

[silkysmooth]

I don't see huge point production from him though, maybe at his peak a consistent 70-ish point guy.

I agree. We tend to overhype prospects like crazy, and basically project any decent prospect as a future 70+ pt guy, when in reality only a very small portion can and do ever hit that mark in their career.

I see a solid 60 pt guy with potential for 70 as upside

[rtstr]

[/B]
I agree. We tend to overhype prospects like crazy, and basically project any decent prospect as a future 70+ pt guy, when in reality only a very small portion can and do ever hit that mark in their career.

I see a solid 60 pt guy with potential for 70 as upside

I think that's lowballing him. Wyatt is not a decent prospect, he's a 19-year-old 2nd line NHL center on a Cup contender. We aren't talking about a run-of-the-mill
coinflip prospect.
If he had higher draft pedigree everyone would sing a different tune but that's irrelevant today. If 2021 was redrafted he's an easy top 15, potential top 10 pick in what was a deep first round.

There's about ~75 players on pace to hit 70+ this season. I don't think it's that rare. Johnston should do it numerous times.

[Bubba55]

I like the Bergeron comparison for a couple of reasons. It does appear, as others have commented that his defensive game is a strong point for him, that 200 ft game is why he is in the NHL as a 19 year old and not in the AHL. The other aspect of that comparison that I like is that Bergeron only scored over PPG once in his career. Averaged out he was a consistent 60 pt forward, some years a little more and some years a little less. If Johnston has that kind of career, a consistent 60 pt two way forward I would not be at all surprised. However, I would be surprised if he evolves into an elite level NHL scoring forward. It could happen, but I think it's significantly more unlikely than not.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Hes an offensive playmaking center he's not a Bergeron. 60 pt projection is funny to me but I'm happy to buy him low.

[rtstr]

Hes an offensive playmaking center he's not a Bergeron. 60 pt projection is funny to me but I'm happy to buy him low.

Right. There seems to be a common misconception among prospect evaluators that "great at defense" = "not great at offense". Not the case.

[silkysmooth]

I think that's lowballing him. Wyatt is not a decent prospect, he's a 19-year-old 2nd line NHL center on a Cup contender. We aren't talking about a run-of-the-mill
coinflip prospect.
If he had higher draft pedigree everyone would sing a different tune but that's irrelevant today. If 2021 was redrafted he's an easy top 15, potential top 10 pick in what was a deep first round.

There's about ~75 players on pace to hit 70+ this season. I don't think it's that rare. Johnston should do it numerous times.

Just because he's in the NHL already and established himself doesn't mean he's going to be a star. He definitely could be and has decent odds, but that doesn't mean he's likely to become a ppg+ player.

Each year, the first round of the nhl draft produces 32 skaters. Let's assume 25 of those are forwards. If the average NHL career is 15 years, that would mean 375 forwards get drafted in the first round in that time. If 75 players pace for 70 pts in a season, that means a forward drafted in the first round has an 18% chance of hitting the 70 point pace mark once in their career. The actual number is a lot lower of course, since there are some skaters from the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc rounds that are part of those 75 skaters. So let's just make it simple and say 15%. And that's for 70 point pace. Those numbers start to drop off very, very quickly once you cut it to 80 pts or higher.

Could Johnston be one of the 15% and hit a 70 point pace? Yes, definitely. But it's not like he's for sure going to become a ppg player, or is even likely to.

I'm just saying we often overstate what players will do rather than understate.

[The Towers]

What's all this stat stuff above...what's that got to do with Wyatt Johnston...would be more interested in comments that reflect his performance on the ice this year. If you're not watching him...I'm not interested. Open to those who have actually watched a lot of his games. Oh...another goal as I type away

[Luffy D Monkey]

I'm just saying we often overstate what players will do rather than understate.

Okay, this is not a personal attack. None of us have a crystal ball. I am going to try to unpack your argument to show why I disagree with your prediction.

First you said "I see a 60 pt player" which seems to indicate an eye-test, qualitative evaluation of this player.
However your second post to justify this took the polar opposite approach, a quantitative "play the odds" approach.
I don't want to spend too long dissecting this but I don't see how those two posts and two approaches fit together. I also don't see how taking the cautious approach that you're extolling is helpful for fantasy, but I guess that could just be a personal approach to gambling.

Lets just take the 15% number and apply it to rookies who have played 20 or more games this season. That's 56 players x .15 = 8 rounded down.
Now I'm going to list 8 players who I think have a better future in the NHL from a point production standpoint.
1. Beniers
2. MacTavish
3. K Johnson
4. Quinn
5. Perfetti
6. Berggren

After Berggren it drops off and obviously there's some wiggle room with your choices here. But to be honest, I'm putting Johnson in the top 3 of this list, and I might have him ranked 1st.

Now tied with Beniers for rookie goal scoring lead with 19 goals.
Centering the #2 line in the entire league for goal scoring rate at 5v5:
https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/...1_c10&ref_url=
Yes...thats right behind McDavid's line.

[DangerCat]

I’ll say this I traded him and stank (this is while he was just finished his 120pt jr season last year) for Drysdale as I figured I’d take a stab at drysdale as he is a legit PP1 D man and already playing.) Not in a million years did I think Johnston was going to come in and score 20 goals this year right out of junior given where he was selected. Stupid now I know. I think the future is sky high for this kid I would be stepping over myself if I could get him back at a reasonable price. I wouldn’t say he nets 100pts but I think consistent ppg guy with maybe a few 90 point seasons sprinkled in in his prime.