Rank These Top Players: Matthews, Marner, Bedard, Tkachuk, etc. - REP Given!

[Rockies & Hockeys]

For the bottom team in my sig (start 12 F, 5 D, 2 G. Also 7 Bench.) I'd like to do some planning for next season's draft. I've got 2 draft picks in the top 4 (not sure which ones), plus ALL the picks 5th-8th, so I'd REALLY like to solidify the top 8 of this list (since I'll get 6 of them). I also get the 13th overall pick...

The reason these guys are available to be drafted is that the league has a rule where each player can only be kept for 5 years after being drafted (being traded doesn't re-start the clock). So whoever I draft from this list, I can keep as one of my 10 keepers for the next 5 years. With that in mind, I'm likely to slide someone like Stamkos or Hedman down my list a bit due to age.

Side notes:

- This is also a rookie draft, so I could take someone like Bedard, Fantilli, etc.. However I've already got really strong minors keepers, so I'm not desperate to boost them. My main team is fairly weak now but I've got a load of high picks in 2023 & 24. I'm hoping to make a title push both years if all goes well.

- You can keep your 10 keepers for five years, but for your 5 minors keepers their clock doesn't start until they've reached 100 GP and get called up. So I may end up with someone like Cooley for 7 or so years total.

- The list of guys I have on this list post are ALL the guys whose contracts expire this year (plus Bedard). There will be some other decent guys who don't get kept, but not likely any worthy of a first round pick.

1) Matthews
2) Marner
3) M. Tkachuk
4) BEDARD???
5) Connor
6) Aho
7) Point
8) Saros
9) Barzal
10) DeBrincat
11) Stamkos
12) Hedman
13) Tavares
14) Markstrom
15) FANTILLI/MICHKOV/CARLSSON???

Can't decide when to draft the rookies, that's for sure!

[stevegamer]

Question 0: Which Tkachuk? It's clearly not Keith, but I don't know which one it is.

Question 1: What are the starting requirements by position, if any?


Here's my tiering of these guys without knowing the answer to question 1. I left the numbers you assigned to them:

Top tier above PPG guys:
1) Matthews
2) Marner

PPG F plus elite owns at D or G:
3) MTkachuk (Matthew goes here, Brady goes next tier down)
5) Connor
6) Aho
8) Saros - If you can actually use 2 G's regularly I'd grab him.
12) Hedman - he'll be your best or second best D keeper. Must draft.

Older PPG guys, or potential PPG guys, but not consistent yet:
3) BTkachuk (Brady goes here)
7) Point
9) Barzal
10) DeBrincat
11) Stamkos
13) Tavares

Rookies:
4) BEDARD??? Worth taking somewhere, unsure where. I would NOT take him in the top 6. He's at best in the Point/Barzal tier for me, as there's bust risk. However, you do have a ton of picks. This is where you can try and shop a pick for a big return.

15) FANTILLI/MICHKOV/CARLSSON??? I think you want to get one of these guys in round 2/3 especially if one of your minors is going to games played promote. However, this draft is supposed to be deep.

Just no:
14) Markstrom - way too shaky right now, an you want a consistent entrenched starters, preferably on good teams. Nashville & Calgary are roughly the same quality of team, but Saros >> Markstrom.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Great questions - I've added details in the original post to say that it's start 12 F, 5 D, 2 G. Also 7 Bench & 5 Minors.

And... it's Matthew Tkachuk.

[Belexus75]

for now i would flip Saros and Point and then put Bedard right below Saros but it can change quickly next year...

as for other 23 draftees, i would leave them where you got them.

now this is for competitive team...if you rebuilding obviously it would change things around slightly

[Rockies & Hockeys]

for now i would flip Saros and Point and then put Bedard right below Saros but it can change quickly next year...

as for other 23 draftees, i would leave them where you got them.

now this is for competitive team...if you rebuilding obviously it would change things around slightly

Thanks! Yes, I expect to be extremely competitive the next several years. I'm coming out of a 2 year rebuild and should be very deep and strong these next few years if I draft decently well. That's a part of why I want to figure out how early is too early to draft Bedard, haha.

[Belexus75]

well i would think that Bedard will go within first 3 picks due to the hype and also if its weaker team it makes sense to take a flyer and hope he turns into gold 3 years down the road...so depending on where your pick is, he may not even be there..but if you competing lots of those guys are better...btw i would have marner at top of that list in points only where G/A have same value

[Pengwin7]

I don't really want to work on the full list, but:

1. Bedard
2. Matthews
3. M.Tkachuk
4. Marner

The upside in Bedard is too tremendous to pass on.
Even if he is a slow-rise, somebody will pay through the nose to get him... it will be a huge trade-haul.
There's always a few GMs in fantasy leagues that go ga-ga over elite prospects.
In a "partial keeper" (Keep 6F), you can basically upgrade the entire back-half of your team for Bedard in Jan or Feb NEXT YEAR.
And... if for some reason you go through terrible injuries, you can sell your good older players and build for a future year yourself when Bedard is even better.

Matthew Tkachuk is a very underrated scorer, I like him long-term over Marner.
There IS some "who knows" with both Matthews & Marner... Matthews could leave summer 2024.
I think TOR fans don't think it's possible... but I do. (We'll know more by mid-July next year, after a few weeks where he *could extend.)
Toronto simply ain't "all that" for some people. It wouldn't surprise me to see AM34 leave.
I think both his points and Marner's points drop if that happens... and it could.


[IF... Matthews does re-sign long term... and once Bedard's team (post NHL-lottery) is revealed... this thread would be good to revisit. If Bedard lands on CHI... I'm not so big on that... but if he lands on CBJ (w/Laine, Gaudreau, K.Johnson, Marchenko)... that's an incredible spot for him and I'd be taking him over a re-signed Matthews. So... 1.Bedard-CBJ, 2.Matthews-TOR, 3.Bedard-someOtherteams, 4.Matthews-OtherTeam, 5.Bedard-CHI.)

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I don't really want to work on the full list, but:

1. Bedard
2. Matthews
3. M.Tkachuk
4. Marner

The upside in Bedard is too tremendous to pass on.
Even if he is a slow-rise, somebody will pay through the nose to get him... it will be a huge trade-haul.
There's always a few GMs in fantasy leagues that go ga-ga over elite prospects.
In a "partial keeper" (Keep 6F), you can basically upgrade the entire back-half of your team for Bedard in Jan or Feb NEXT YEAR.
And... if for some reason you go through terrible injuries, you can sell your good older players and build for a future year yourself when Bedard is even better.

Matthew Tkachuk is a very underrated scorer, I like him long-term over Marner.
There IS some "who knows" with both Matthews & Marner... Matthews could leave summer 2024.
I think TOR fans don't think it's possible... but I do. (We'll know more by mid-July next year, after a few weeks where he *could extend.)
Toronto simply ain't "all that" for some people. It wouldn't surprise me to see AM34 leave.
I think both his points and Marner's points drop if that happens... and it could.


[IF... Matthews does re-sign long term... and once Bedard's team (post NHL-lottery) is revealed... this thread would be good to revisit. If Bedard lands on CHI... I'm not so big on that... but if he lands on CBJ (w/Laine, Gaudreau, K.Johnson, Marchenko)... that's an incredible spot for him and I'd be taking him over a re-signed Matthews. So... 1.Bedard-CBJ, 2.Matthews-TOR, 3.Bedard-someOtherteams, 4.Matthews-OtherTeam, 5.Bedard-CHI.)

Good point to consider - If I take Bedard I can likely trade him for a massive haul. May have to do that if those top three are gone.

Also, would you mind ordering Aho, Point, Connor for me? I'm pretty undecided on which order I should take them. That being said, there's a decent chance I can just take them all, haha. Gotta love lots of high picks!

Now that I think about it, I'lll likely end up with TWO of: Matthews, Marner, M. Tkachuk & Bedard, and ALL of Aho, Connor, Point and one player. Who should that be - Saros? Barzal?

[Pengwin7]

Connor is a 90pt pace player, so he'd be first.
Aho is exactly point-per-game over last 5 years, and turns 26 this year, so he's 2nd.
Point is also about point-per-game, but he turns 27 this year, so he's 3rd.

*Aho has been SO consistent, that I think his sexyness appeal is rubbing off.
But he's a consistent 16% shooter - and CAR still has young wingers (Necas, Svech, Jarvis) that will get better.
Whereas Point & TB are aging together.

So I think Aho wins the tie-break there.
If/when CAR's young wingers *pop*... I think Aho could elevate to a 90pt forward.

He's also only has 12ppp this year... so he has space for more.

Aho/Point are very close to a coin-flip though... and generally, TB players seem easier to flip in fantasy leagues than the (less-sexy) CAR players.

[This Guy]

1) Matthews (as you're competing now)
2) Bedard
3) M. Tkachuk
4) Marner
5) Connor
6) Saros
7) Aho
8) Barzal (I think Horvat will help boost him)
9) Point
10) DeBrincat
11) Stamkos
12) FANTILLI/MICHKOV
13) Hedman
14) Tavares

[stevegamer]

Given your clarifications:

Matthews
Marner
MTkachuk
Connor
Saros
Bedard
Aho
Hedman

Point
Barzal
DeBrincat
Stamkos
Tavares
FANTILLI/MICHKOV/CARLSSON???

Thoughts:
If you get a top 3 pick, think about shopping it for a small pick downgrade, and another future pick. Your draft is going to be so heavy this year, a future pick is better than more now.
Saros as one of your 2 G is very nice. He's clearly the best on available, and you should deny other teams the possibility to get him. He'll set you up nicely when you must drop Vasilevskiy.
I decided to slot Bedard in at 6. I realize he has tremendous upside and could net a large return.
I have Hedman at 8, because he definitely makes your team better in a weak area. I do think there's a chance he slips to 13, but it's a longshot as he's the best D.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Thanks for that update! Yeah, there are a few where it’s hard to decide because of age, eh?

[Rockies & Hockeys]

After checking out these responses and also chatting with a few buddies of mine, here's my updated list:

1) Marner
2) Matthews
3) M. Tkachuk (maybe higher though?)
4) Connor
5) Aho
6) Point
7) Bedard
8) Barzal/Saros
9) DeBrincat

At 8th I'll choose Saros IF I don't choose to keep Grubauer over, say, Lafreniere or Boqvist.

If I don't end up with Bedard, I'll likely choose Fantilli in the 2nd round. I have a LOT of high pick this upcoming draft and I like to take one top prospect each season. Last year that was Cooley for me. That way my pipeline is never running dry.

Thoughts on the updated list?

[VintageVibe]

For the next 5 years in a points only league:

M Tkachuk
Matthews
Marner
Connor
Bedard (potential 7 year keeper)

Aho
Point
Barzal

If you could keep him beyond 7 years I would put Bedard at the top of the list -- but you can't so I won't -- and I take the other players 90+ points for the next 5 years over a likely staggered start (~65-75, 75-85, 85-90, 90+) to his career (depending on what team he ends up on).

Hope this helps and good luck with your ultimate decision!

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Famous! I just saw now that this made the “Forum Buzz”, where the awesome Rick Roos said I should go for Bedard 1st overall due to having minors 7 years total. What does everyone think?