Keep 1: Konecny or Boldy or Hagel

[gcefaloni]

Hi,

I am in a points-only keeper league. We keep 7 players every year and I'm wondering whether to keep Konecny, Boldy or Hagel for the next few years.

-Boldy seems to have high upside and just resigned long-term with MIN.
-Konecny has exploded this year and is still signed for another 2 years with PHI before hitting UFA.
-Hagel who's RFA after the next 2 years and whose 3-year projected and "upside" is listed as being lower than the other 2 players according to the Dobber Fantasy guide.

I don't know which one of the 3 to keep for future years.

[Axeman33]

In a cap league, Hagel is your best value. Maybe not the best player but definitely the best value. If this wasn't a cap league, I'd say Boldy, but alas it is.

Hagel for me.

[gcefaloni]

In a cap league, Hagel is your best value. Maybe not the best player but definitely the best value. If this wasn't a cap league, I'd say Boldy, but alas it is.

Hagel for me.

Does the value proposition change for you if I tell you that our league uses the last year's Cap Hit so next year, Boldy will still be at 881k and Hagel still at 1.5M (for next season and the following). So this means there would only be one year where Hagel is at 1.5M$ and Boldy is at 7M$ and then it will revert to Hagel getting resigned at his next RFA deal.

Do you still prefer Hagel for 2 years at 1.5M$ then new deal? Or Boldy at 881k for one year then 7x7M$ is a better value?

I didn't emphasize the salary in my question too much because I wanted to tilt the discussion a bit on which player is more likely to get significant points going forward.

[silkysmooth]

Konecny
Boldy / Hagel

Konecny is putting up an elite season and still has 2 more years after this one at only $5.5M. He's also shown before he always had this potential with his near ppg season a couple years ago.
In 3+ years, Boldy will be better than Konecny only due to cap hit (I think Konecny will still probably out point him), but Konecny is far, far better for the next 2 years at only 5.5 so I'd have to go with him.

[tweetdrivr]

Boldy.

[TheDard]

Boldy

Though question; is your league salary cap expected to rise some as the NHL salary caps rises?

[gcefaloni]

Boldy

Though question; is your league salary cap expected to rise some as the NHL salary caps rises?

Yes it does. It follows the increase with a one-year delay.

[TheDard]

Yes it does. It follows the increase with a one-year delay.

Then hold onto Boldy without doubt.

[lusshouse]

If you think you'll compete next year and need the cap space : Boldy.

You could gamble on Hagel, getting two seasons out of him.

Or go with Konecny, higher upside, but higher salary for a year or two. Then... who knows!

[Eskimo Brother]

That's a fun question.
I'm assuming based on the replies that this year doesn't matter, since you seem to have discounted it already.

The players themselves break down as:
Boldy - Youngest, most runway to improve, currently still on ELC
Hagel - Lowest floor, putting up career year, signed to best contract of the group and his lower name/drat value probably means a reasonable extension number (I have him projected at $7M at this point in time).
Konecny - Highest upside, hitting that upside right now, still on a reasonable deal at the moment.

All three are awesome assets, and you must have an amazing team to only be able to keep 1. I wonder if there isn't another of your six that I would dump in favour of one of these guys as well. Could you provide us with the list?

Right now, my cap rankings have Boldy ahead by a hair, then Hagel, then Konecny a reasonable distance behind, but still super valuable. As he's also the one putting up the best numbers, the size of your league matters. The smaller the league the more Konecny's value would increase relative to the other two.

Personally I feel like I need some more info, like the status of when you're trying to compete, your other keepers, whether the cap is for all 18 of your players, or how that works, etc.

[gcefaloni]

That's a fun question.
I'm assuming based on the replies that this year doesn't matter, since you seem to have discounted it already.

The players themselves break down as:
Boldy - Youngest, most runway to improve, currently still on ELC
Hagel - Lowest floor, putting up career year, signed to best contract of the group and his lower name/drat value probably means a reasonable extension number (I have him projected at $7M at this point in time).
Konecny - Highest upside, hitting that upside right now, still on a reasonable deal at the moment.

All three are awesome assets, and you must have an amazing team to only be able to keep 1. I wonder if there isn't another of your six that I would dump in favour of one of these guys as well. Could you provide us with the list?

Right now, my cap rankings have Boldy ahead by a hair, then Hagel, then Konecny a reasonable distance behind, but still super valuable. As he's also the one putting up the best numbers, the size of your league matters. The smaller the league the more Konecny's value would increase relative to the other two.

Personally I feel like I need some more info, like the status of when you're trying to compete, your other keepers, whether the cap is for all 18 of your players, or how that works, etc.

Thanks for the in-depth answer Eskimo.

To answer your questions:

(1) Here's the list of my team: I intended to keep Crosby, Barkov, Gaudreau, E. Lindholm, Dahlin, Hellebuyck and I need a 7th. I like Eichel but too expensive, Suzuki I will have to let go at 7.8M, and then there is Boldy, Hagel, Barrie and Konecny.

FW
8700 Sidney Crosby
10000 Jack Eichel
863 Nicholas Suzuki
881 Matthew Boldy
5900 Aleksander Barkov (will be 10,000)
5000 Jonathan Marchessault
6750 Johnny Gaudreau (will be 9,750)
1500 Brandon Hagel
4850 Elias Lindholm
5500 Travis Konecny

D's
894 Rasmus Sandin
6000 Rasmus Dahlin
1000 Anthony DeAngelo
4500 Tyson Barrie
5000 Samuel Girard

G's
6167 Connor Hellebuyck
750 Daniel Vladar

Bench
750 Chris Wideman
825 Samuel Blais

(2) I am not talking about this year because I'm far enough ahead of the second in my division to think I'll take the division championship away but too far behind the league's champion to think I could reasonably have a shot, so therefore thinking about next years. I try to be competing every year.

(3) The situation is that we keep 7 players every year, draft 18 players total (including the 7) and we must follow last year's cap hit and salary cap for the team (will be 82.5M next year for all 18 players). Particularities include that the first 13 players drafted must fit under 64M AND cap hits for players drafted in round 14 to 16 count double. That last one makes the league quite challenging given it is a relatively deep league of 18 players x 18 teams.

I was thinking of going in with a keep7 being:
8.70M Sidney Crosby
0.88M Matthew Boldy
10.0M Aleksander Barkov
9.75M Johnny Gaudreau
4.85M Elias Lindholm
6.00M Rasmus Dahlin
6.17M Connor Hellebuyck

For a grand total of 46.348M for the top7,
then need to stick under 17.652M for next 6 players to fit under 64M for first 13,
then under 16.5M for last 5 to fit under 82.5M for all 18 players.

[tweetdrivr]

Seems like a solid plan to me.

[Eskimo Brother]

All looks good. I would rather two of Konecny/Boldy/Hagel next year over Gaudreau at his increased number. That is unless Bedard lands in CLB. Assuming you can wait until after the draft to finalize your keepers?

[GinFizz]

i wouldnt keep Johnny G. Boldy/Konecny for me.

[stevegamer]

(3) The situation is that we keep 7 players every year, draft 18 players total (including the 7) and we must follow last year's cap hit and salary cap for the team (will be 82.5M next year for all 18 players). Particularities include that the first 13 players drafted must fit under 64M AND cap hits for players drafted in round 14 to 16 count double. That last one makes the league quite challenging given it is a relatively deep league of 18 players x 18 teams.[/B]

I was thinking of going in with a keep7 being:
8.70M Sidney Crosby
0.88M Matthew Boldy
10.0M Aleksander Barkov
9.75M Johnny Gaudreau
4.85M Elias Lindholm
6.00M Rasmus Dahlin
6.17M Connor Hellebuyck

For a grand total of 46.348M for the top7,
then need to stick under 17.652M for next 6 players to fit under 64M for first 13,
then under 16.5M for last 5 to fit under 82.5M for all 18 players.

Given that you're competing every year, and can walk to a division title, it's all bout the future. However, I care most about the near future when I know what the cap hit looks like, and roughly what the production should be.

I'd consider Crosby vs Eichel vs. Barkov vs Gaudreau as a keep 3 maximum, and I don't think I'd be keeping Gaudreau. I might only keep 2, as if you have more cap room than other people to use, you can get more expensive players in those rounds, essentially giving you more draft capital in a way. Therefore, I'd try to find room for Boldy, Hagel, and Konecny here.

I'd keep:
0.88M Matthew Boldy
1.50M Brandon Hagel
5.50M Travis Konecny
4.85M Elias Lindholm
6.00M Rasmus Dahlin
6.17M Connor Hellebuyck
and one of your expensive guys, knowing that replacing the expensive guy with Hagel means that you can just draft an expensive guy at the draft.

That would run roughly $35M for your top 7, which gives you roughly $29M for the next 6.