The Power of Contrarian Thinking!! Examples included...

[Fighting_Emu]

I submit today that 90% of our most meaningful gains in fantasy hopckey will be when you dipped where they dallied- where yoiu deviated and they deferred...

In the modern world we all have access to the same infoprmation. Sites like dobbers and indeed these very forums are great places to glean additional insights on the stocks we invest in so to speak. We have our own valuations to be sure but to be honest were all working from a simliar(ish) blueprint so to speak. I contend that when we are the furthest outside the lines on said blueprints are when we make the most gains. There are creative ways to operate inside it and trade for value or switch yhour focus to the future or some other scenario- but if were being hionest- if were being REALLY honest- the only way to net a truly elite player in their prime (outside of drafting them) is to poach them off a newbie gm. If you traded for Jason Robertson this week- for example it syas less about your negotiating savvy in most cases than it does about the other Gms lack of it. My point is its easy to draft a Connor McDavid or whatever but if youre going to try and land that kind of upside via trade you have very limited options if youre trading partners are even halfway in the know.

Im suggesting one of the best ways to do that is to target guys that are not popular right this second. The kind of guy thuis exact board would be very ho-hum in off not very against. I dont imagine many people will agree with this but I truly beliieve those spots are the only way you can truly maximize your return. If we use Robertson again- even if youre trading partner is very out to lunch yoiu likely STILL had to give one- two- even three signifcant pieces to land him. Im talking about guys you can get much cheaper. There will be examples- but first storytime:

Two years ago- I looked at Evander Kane and he was universally hated. Im not gonna lie spousal abuse is a sore spot for me and although he was never prosecuted for that-there were allegations. He was also posting pics of him doing pushups with stacks of cash on his back. I live in winniupeg and apparently he was walking out on bills- he bottled a bouncer. The short version is- I didnt like him either. That being said I always had a soft spot fior Kane in fantasy- I play in sog heavy leagues and hes always been a beast- tbh almost to his and his teams irl detrimenbt- lol! At that time I offered Duclair for him. Duclkair was making a case for maybe being a 30 goal guy and havcing a modicum of upside but against Kanes antics it seemed reasonable. Then the suspênsion we all knew was coming came down and there was this feeling like he might not play again. I knew the other owner was down a third (we only draft three rounds)- so i doublked down and added a third to Duclair. Accept!

The next season it becomes cl;ear the suspensaions are done with and he signs with McDavid of all teams!! I could keep him but I was in a rebuild and applying this same technique I saw a player who was highly touted who was performing ok but not great. I ponied up and added two more significant one year pieces (KLane was the core however)- and I got him! So you might say well the Kane thing was one in a million. Maybe- but how many people were making pitches for him? I contend almost no one. Diod the other GM make a bad trade? Im not sure- he was competetive that year and Duclair helped- hes also a savvy drafter and found some solid value with that third. We did NOT know Kane would even play again. Im saying thats EXACTLY where you should roll the dice. In Hughes case Ill admit the owner has a bias towards contending every year but honestly I was running around poutting out fires on these boards as early as last year because even though he had scored BETTER than a point per game pace some GMs literally look at his statline and go- Sheesh hes not even a 70 point player!! Im saying when you identify those opportunities you dont have to roll the dice every time but if you can afford to take a gamble thats actually the best time to do it! We gamble and fail all the time! How many people drafted and held Cody Glass even up til this year?? Hell Im still holding Poolparty off of ONE dominant WJC- lmao!! Were always gambling anyways- why not maximize the return?

[Fighting_Emu]

Jakub Vrana-
What People See- A perrenial 55ish point player whose currently not playing and might never play again. If he does play he could be a shell of his former self or this could be the pre-cursor to slowly exitting the NHL altogether. He underachieved in Washington and his being traded to Detroit is a testament to that. Why am I going to invest in a problematic 55 point player who may or may not play in the league ever again?
Contrarian Perspective- Going into this season only 2 players scored more even strength goals than Vrana- AO and Matthews. Thats it. Let that oine sink in. Were talking at least being on par with literal generational goal scorers. The ES moinkiker just screams that hed thrive given any pp time. Was he a problem in Washington? I guess so- but almost any young player not named Kuznnetzov has been a problem in Washington and even Maantha who was accomplishing supêrlatiuve worthy feats in Detroit is an afterthought there. In fact after being traded he went on an almost goal per game run for like 12 games or something- lol! I believe Stevie Y knows what he has and if anyone can help an enigmatic offensive player round out his complete game its him. They paid a tidy sum too so I dont think hes an afterthought. His deployment has NOT been perfect- Ill admit that. Ive often wondered if the deployment doesnt line up with the personal issues- like say hypothetically he was too hungover to play 16+ minutes? Again Ill move away from the speculation but what were seeing is a guy who can be acquired for very liuttle who can have a massive impact on hbis return.
Best Case Scenario- Best case is that those AO-Matthews comparisons in goal scoring spoke to a natural goal scorers aptitude. Im not comfortable putting him in that rarified air but it doesnt take a lot of imagination to picture him rounding into a form as a 40 goal guy- and once he does that (IF he does that)- well have a completely different talk about his upside- lol!
Worst Case Scenario- His personal issues get the best of him and he nbever plays again. Theres a middle ground where he never conquers said issues but manages to carve out a frusterating and enigmatic career. In that case you could stiull try to flip him whgile hes on a hot streak.
Verdict: Lets be real- I think you could get this guy for free at this point! If you can afford the bench space do so. if you cant at least monitor him. For me its all about icetime- if he comes back but hes still at 12 minutes I think its a bad sign but if th team trusts him to get up over 16 minutes as the core piece Im pretty confidenmt too. Tbh Im likely holding until next season anyways because if the issue is addiction- or even grief-depression it might take a full summer workout regimen to get back into game shape. If hes playing 12 minutes out of the gate next year Im waiting for a hot streak and selling high. If hes over 16 minutes I think youve succesfully contraried yourself into a win!!

Alexis Lafreniere
What people See- A highly touted rookie who was never the swiftest foot to begin with and rose to stardom in the Q- a league that historically doesnt get the same respect as the rest of the CHL- who has had two and a half very mediocre seasons since beiung drafted. Maybe people werent expecting McDavid numbers out of the gate but in year three theyre looking at a guy struggling to get even a half a point per game and wondering what all the fuss was about...
Contrarian Perspective- Ok- lets be clear here- some very, very, VERY good scouts, analysts and pundits were Èall inÈ on this guy. They were ready to call him not just eliute like other first overalls but pencilled him in as a franchise piullar- before he ever played a game! That draft was extremely deep with multiple superstars emerging and that year he was head and shoulders above them. Does this make him bust proof? No- of course not BUT I dont agree with people who want to rewrite the narrative and say he was divisive like a Yakupov or overrated like say an RNH. He was the guy- there was no question. You could get him now off waivers in some leagues or a streaking Kubalik in others and his upside doesnt just go away. Having dug into this issue very deeply I can rport that while there isnt a siongle clear factor to blame there are multiple issues that are working against him including his team being in contention, his coach histopriucally not utilizing young players effectievly and deployment including atoi, pptoi and offensive zone starts. It is my sincere belief that all of these factors- along with others like having a different development curve than other more high impact rookies form that class- have conspired to camouflage a guy that was thought to be borderline generational at one point. I know Youtubes Graviteh is not exactly an authority on prospects but hes actually a good litmus test for where players and prospects are generally valued at and he has an early video asking if Lafreniere is the best player to come into the NHL since McDavid in terms of pure skill.
Best Case Scenario- Youre adding a franchise lynchpin that enhances your roster for years. Mackinnon and to a lesser extrent Stamkos had non-linear develoipment curves that could not be easily explained away and they turned out fine. Some people are rewriting his upsiode to a point per game player. Im not. I think were looking at a goal hevay 90 point player who can threaten (and in fact surpass) 100 in his prime. Ive got a guy in my league who drafted (and held!)( Mackinnon and he almost wont trade prospects anymore- lmao! develoipment takes time and the upside here is literallky as good as it gets.
Worst Case Scenario- This is where it gets interesting. I just cant see him fizzling out- I think hes in the NHL to stay. I really feel like even at his worst hes a 55ish point second liner who can exceed that in a good year. Even in the mjidst of this type of deployment the team has made it clear that they vioew him as a core piece going forward- take that for whats it worth but I think hes ahead of say even Kakko in terms of the teams confidence. All thgis is to say that even if he misses I still think he has a modicum of value. for completeness I will say theres a world where he tops out as a point per game player but never finds that superstar gear. I just dont see it myself. Take iot from Laffys dad who said of his play- I think hes very good- hes always very good but when the game is on the line he puts on his superman cape and goes to work. Hes got that gear- hes always had it- lets just see if he can unlock a way to use it consistently.
Verdict: I see very little downside here. If you can manage to acquire him I personally think hes a no brainer. Id fall shy oif giving a proven superstar but Ive always felt that any player with gamebreaking upside is worth gambling on. If you already own him- just hold! Look up his old highlights- do a deep dive on Mackinnons development- just dont drop-sell him.

Nikolaj Ehlers
What People See- A perrenial 60 point player whose very fast but seems to lack that top gear that seperates the great players from the merely very good. If theyve looked a little deeper they may have noticed that his last two seasons were closer to a point per game than to the usual 60 points but at that point they might cite injuries as a concern.
Contrarian Perspective- Those in the know are aware that Ehlers really has not struggled for talent or even for that matter production- hes just kind of capped off b y his deployment and usage. Every year owners exclaim with baited breath that- this is the year! And to be totally frank- last year was the year- he cleared a point per game with very healthy sog totals to boot- and that was even with a permanent role on the first line but something more akin to spot duty. This year he was supposed to get more sonsistent deployment and he got injured. The narrative that he doesnt have the talent is just plain wrong. When given the deployment he hasnt even really struggled- hes actually stepped up. If hes a) healthy and b) deployed offensively on a consistent basis hes as safe of a bet as you could ask for imho. I wont muddy this with my own expoerience but Ill just say I was surprised when these boards seemed to have the opinion that Necas was already better than Ehlers. Im very high on Necas- dont get me wrong- but Ehlers is a very talented player and he hasnt even dropped the ball to this point., His produiction being masked is more due to injury and deployment trends. I think there was a significant buy window when we thought hed be out all season and tyhat seemed to close in my league when it was updated to 6-8 weeks but it may still be open in your standard league. I cant think of a lot of players in the same suppoised 60-70 point ranmge that Ehlers is percieved that I wouldnt flip for him. Ehlers is a beast!
Best Case Scenario- Best Case scenario is that he is finally deployed consistently when healthy and that in and of iutslef should ensure a point per game pace as a relatively safe floor. I do think he has one more gear though. he reminds me of Huberdeau- heèll always have the talent to score 90 and threaten 100 iun any given season but hitting that lofty peak might depend more on teamn isutation, linemates and some puck luck!
Worst Case Scenario- Its possible that he continues to struggle to clear a point per game but hoinestly I feel like if it does happen its probably a lot more to do with bad luck than anything else. With his skill I think you could see a universe where his compete level wanes and he cant find consistency. In that case scenario youre likely going to get where hes currently valued at. Theres juyst not a ton of downside here. Upside? Yes I really think there is but the truth is that the doiwnside is what people think hes doing right now...

[Fighting_Emu]

Kevin Fiala
What People See- A flashy point per game player. Sure hes struggled at times but the Kings brought him in to score and hes doing that- hes basically what we had hoped for... isnt he?
Contrarian Perspective- The contrarian says no! If you look at his Minnesota days he seemed to be a slow starter. His slow starts were not just slow going production though. As an owner you cringed every time he got bumped down a line. Did he p^lay on the third line? He did! And the experiment lasted quite awhile toio. I think he spent some time on the fourth line too. Then like clockwork he would find his groove-chemistry-niche and hit another gear after christmas and drag his very mediocre stats back up to repectability. Heres a secret- thats still happening!! Hes playing up and doiwn the line up- he doesnt have secure linemates. Everyuone raved about him and Kopitar and despite getting a decent amount of time there it didnt really stick. I have NO idea why this seems to happen every year but at least this year hes on a new team so the adaptation periood makes sense. I submit that if he does the same thing and finds his gear in the second half and add those ridiculous totals to a point per game first half- all of a sudden were looking at a 90-100 point player! Would I bet my house on it? No. If I could add him foir a guy whose a lot more likely to just settle in at a point per game- would I make the swap? Yes- absolutely I would. I dont want to add a lot (and you shouldnt have to tbh)- but if you can swap him for a similar player-0 like an Elias Lindholm- why not take that gamble?
Best Case Scenario- He blows up the second half and finds a way to skip the growing pains next year. If he can do that its not unreasonable to look for 35-40 goals and 90 points over the course of a full season.
Worst Case Sceanrio- He doesnt. Aaaaannnndddd youve still got a point per game asset. These are the types of swaps I live for!
Verdict: Its a wonky indicator but it seems to go off like clockwork- every eyarhes a slow starter. Outside of the point per game production the line swapping and coaches criticismn suggest that might actually still be going on. If he can correct that- he could be an elite asset for your fantasy squad!!

Tyler Bertuzzi
What People See- Gross!! Is this really the direction you want to go with this!!?? They see a guy who put up 45ish twice and then got around 60 one year. He struggles with injury and hey didnt he have some dumb no covid shot issue? I mean hes literally injured for the second time this season...
Contrarian Perspective- Yes he did have a no covid shot issue that was an issue for crossing the bordedr- thats when I was able to acquire him! So thats no longer an issue- injuries are an issue here but thats kind of out of our hands- so lets look at the produiction. So he got 47 and 48 in 70 games a couple seasons back but lets remember here- that was an absoilutelt awful red wings team! i think Hronek was on pace for a history worst plus minus that year and evebn the good linemnates he did have like Larkin and Mantha were still developing and didnt bring a lot of individual talent-production to the table at that time either. So last year hes finally healthy(ish) and wrangles some quality linemates and go figure- he scores at a point per game pace! Make no mistakes Bertuzzi plays an ugly game! He scores off his butt he draws penalties with inapproipriate commentary about thew oppositions girlfriedns- hes a nuiosance,m he can be a scumbag- hes a rat! That typ e of player has a role to play in the NHL though and his never quit woirk ethic has endured himself to coaches along time ago. He leads by example and goes to the dirty areas- that matters when the coach ios dceciding who to put out in ciritcal moments. Short version? I think he is a core player for the wings.
Best Case Scenario- I think at this point your kind of nuts to bank on antything more than 70 games and that will always be his biggest knock but I think hes safely going to scopre at a 70-80 point pace in those. He was SO exciting to watch last year as the team developed and they started takiunbg pride in theiur perfcormance. He seems like a bit of a big game guy and as Detroit gets better and mopre competetive I feel like he has that IT quality wherby hell be able to step up his performance even higher. Id count on 70ish point pace but Im secretly hoping hes the next Marchand...
Worst Case Scenario- I think he has proven himself insofar as his atoi wont be a conbern but being a well rounded player who hustles defdensively I wont say its impossible that they lean on him more in that way. If thats the case I think hell still be a 55ish point player who chips inwith pims and hits. His 180 sogs plays but its right on the cusp for me- Im hopiung he adds more of that to his game. If your league counts takeaways and or penalties drawn he could be a nice multi cat add.
Verddict: Not all buy low opportunities are created equally. I think in Berts case his injuries and especially current injury make him basically a free add in a lot of formats. Some greener GMs may be asking is he worth a stash? I believe in many cases that he ios. He provides a relatively safe offensive floor, someinteresting peripherals and an oft overlooked upside to his game that people will not buy in on until he PROVES it and puts up a 70-80 point season. If thats worth adding in your league Id reccomend him in a hearts beat.


- - - Updated - - -

Josh Morrissey
What People See- A solid 45ish point dman whose good but more likely a sell high option than an investment.
Contrarian Perspective- I no longer own Morrissey (to my shame) but there was a time I went way out of my way to acquire him because he was heralded as the number one all situations dman the Jets needed. He essentially made both Byfuglien and McDonagh expendable to some extent. This idea losty its merit after he failed to break out two years ago, struggled again last year- and even yielded the top pp spot to Pionk or at least splitting duties with him. We decided he was a very good dman but noit an elite offensive one. I submit that we just gave up two years early. I think that although he has his warts- he doesnt shoot enough- he has arrived and this is closer to thge nmormal for him thanm it is to an abberation. Maybe not a 70 point dman- but I think hes the 55+ dman we used to pictuyre when his name came up.
Best Case Scenario- This is the new normal and youve got a staple on your blueline for a lot of years. The jets have a lot of intriguing yoiung talent but not a ton on thed blueline and even less that suggests offensive behemoth. I like Heinola but I think hell help prop up their offense as a whole rather than be a detriment to Morrisseys time. Ive heard murmurings aboiut Josh getting on the Norris ballot- Josh Norrissey sure has a certain ring to it!
Worst Case Scenario- He goes back to being carbonated gingerale- aka- hes playable, decent even but not a top 15 guy in the league for fantasy. Thats not an impossibility but to me it all comes down to what yopu invest...
Verdict- Acquiring Morrissey is all about what you have to give up to get him. I feel like the owner might be motivated to sell because he might worry hell turn back into a pumpkin at midnight. If you can get creative with your offer and sell him on upside or intangibles I think thats the way to go. The reason hes on this list and the crust of my premise is his 3 year average. Its likelt closer to 40-45 than it is to 60. Id bring that up in talks and Id be trying to move maybe a younger guy whose in that range or a guy who cointributes in other cats. Maytbe a foprward who youd generally move for a 45ish point dman. The point is youre NOT going to go out and make an offer for a 70 point dman. The masses expect hiom to regress pretty hard and Im just not sold that hes going to so your going to agree hes playing above his head and see if theres a deal tyherer. Youre NOT going top throw out an elite keeper asset for him. This list is about steeping out of the lemming lane and in this case its not a buy low its recognizing that his career trajectory and underlying stats dont necessarily scream regression- at least to the degree people want to peg him at.

[Fighting_Emu]

Elvis Mierzlikins
What People See- A supposedly talented young goalie who might be one of the big reasons his team (alsop supposedly very good) is struggling. A casual glance down the depth chart shows a talented backup pushing for starts and one of the better goalie prospects out there nipping at his heels. He wasnt playing well to begin with AND THEN he got injured.
Contrarian Perspective- This is a very ta;lented, very hyped goalie whose got outstanding credentials. If we cut him just the smallest biut of sl;ack we can see that this team has struyggled immesnely with injuries, with chemnoistery having added a superstar forweard in the off season and with a young d core that while very talented may have growing pains. The good news is those injuries well heal, thaty chemistery should establish itslef and some of that elite young talent on the blueline will mature into just straight up elite blue line talent.
Best Case Scenario- If the team figures it out nwith Elvis at the helm he could end the season as a top ten guy. After that all bets are off- I could see him being a staple in the top five.
Worst Case Scenario- He literally loses his job coming out of this injury. Korpisalo has struggled immensely but he was once thought of as having sta0rter potential and Tarasov is no joke- hes the real deal in blue and teal! Worst case is hes traded and-or plays himself out of a job.
Verdict- This is the kind of buy opportunity Im looking for. Now you have to be careful- goalies tend to carry a lot of trade value and he was very highly touted going into the season. You have to think some of that sheen has lost its lustre with his disastrous start but think of Evander Kane here! Everyone shimmied when they should have shaked! Dont be a shimmy- shake your groove thang like the old rock and roll houndog you are!!

Honorable Mentions-

Trevor Zegras- Is this too obvious? For me hes like former teammate Jack Hughes- hes about as cant miss as you can get without actually having hit yet. He hasnt been bad perse but some very antsy owners might not be willing to wait for ppg production. I contend that hes closer to a 90 point polayer than a 70 point one. Hes a billable hour.

Elias Pettersen- I was shocked to see how his stock had fallen but the buy iwndow has liukely closed with 32 in 26 but you never know. Id trade any player in that poiint range- aho lindholm, barzal fairly easily for EP.

Eeli Tolvanen-Could be had dirt cheap and he put up borderliner generational numbers in the KHL.

Tim Stutzle- Hes currently breaking out so maybe too late but there was an ever so brief window there. Its probably too l;ate BUT I would watch to see if he struggles again and Id pounce!

Clayton Keller- Hes a personal favorite of mione and Im consistently shocked when I hear where hes valuated by most people. His junior days were on par with Patrick Kane- right down to playing style and everything- hes an uber talent. Yes Arizona is a bag of brown apples right now but SOMEDAY they will find a way out of their own copllective ass and when they do theres a legit superstar waiting to go off. Dang- he should have made this nlist maybe...

Bjorkstrand- I see so many should I drop Bjorkstrand threads. I wouldnt. Im not as confident as the other guys on this list- but like many of these same players- theres a lot to like once you get past the cursory first glance and disappointing statline..

Vince Dunn- I might be too late here and I will say that no concept moreso than 'Team X has a gaping hole on their top powerplay unit and this dman might be the answer' has caused me to make MORE bad investments BUT hypothetically. Team X has a massive hole on their top unit powerplay and Dunn could be the answer...

Akira Schmid- Undefeated!! I know there are issues with him becoming the starter but man that record sparkles. Logic has a lot of good reasons why hes going back to the minors but at what point does a team say 'wins are wins' and just let him out of his cage!!

Arvid Soderblom- Itll take awhile and as Babcock famously told the Toronto faithful at the start of his tenure and the rebuild 'there will be pain!!' but man this kid is passing the eyetest anbd he came out of nowehre!! You likely didnt have to invest much more than an instant coffee hold the sugar with coffee mate but no cream...

[tweetdrivr]

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