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Thread: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

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    Default What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    Good evening all, what do you think the odds are of Lafreniere becoming a top-tier player in the NHL? How did he compare to guys like Jack Hughes prior to being drafted? Thanks!
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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    I had an opportunity to trade Lafreniere for Tage Thompson at the start of the year. I turned it down and regret it now! (There were picks involved which made it a decline)

    I can see Lafreniere having a Nugent-Hopkins like career in which he won't hit his potential for several more years. The Rangers are in a win-now mentality. They already have scoring lines set so he'll be fighting for top six minutes and he'll need a new contract at the end of the season, along with several other players. Something has to give and while I don't expect him to be traded, I have doubts he'll reach potential in NY.

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    We have seen flashes from him. But it seems like he is just taking a longer time to develop, perhaps due to lost time with covid lockdowns and starting as a rookie in the highly constrained covid environment (less time with coaches, teammates etc). And of course NYR not really needing him has hurt his numbers. I still think he will be a top tier player, but you might have to wait another year or two before he hits that next level. Maybe he never gets there, but if I were to put money down, I'd bet on him becoming the player he was drafted to be.

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    Quote Originally Posted by pmorrow View Post
    We have seen flashes from him. But it seems like he is just taking a longer time to develop, perhaps due to lost time with covid lockdowns and starting as a rookie in the highly constrained covid environment (less time with coaches, teammates etc). And of course NYR not really needing him has hurt his numbers. I still think he will be a top tier player, but you might have to wait another year or two before he hits that next level. Maybe he never gets there, but if I were to put money down, I'd bet on him becoming the player he was drafted to be.
    I think this is a big part of it for Lafreniere. I remember back when he was drafted, saying here that the Rangers were already deep on the left side and this was going to hurt him going there. It's not like he went to a team like Arizona, or Montreal, that lacked depth in pretty much all positions, in order for someone like Lafreniere to get the ice time required for him to take the next step. Personally, I still think the Rangers should have gone with Byfield simply due to team needs but hindsight is what it is.

    The skill level isn't in question, but until Gerard Gallant is ready to actually start using the kids like Kakko and Lafreniere in a big time role consistently, neither will live up to their draft position.
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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    It depends on what you think/thought he would be. I admit that I thought he would be a top tier guy (100 pt upside). I have lowered that, but perhaps my initial upside was the one that was off. I still think he can be a PPG type guy (and he plays a more physical game than many realize-think for banger leagues with hits etc). As others have eluded to, with him it will come down to usage/opportunity. He can’t hit PPG numbers on a 3rd line. He will need to be top line consistently with top unit PP usage to realize that potential.
    My guess would be :
    Top line/top PP /18+ min/game = PPG type + decent banger cats =60% confidence
    2nd line / split unit PP 16-17 min/game = 65-72 points + decent banger cats =30% confidence
    Lesser usage 10% confidence. 50ish upside with banger cats.

    1-2 years ago I would’ve had his confidence at the PPG + level. We’ve seen the skill (it’s there). It’s just a matter of consistent deployment and can he put a complete game together

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    I don't think rnh is a great comparison- here's why:

    Even in rnhs draft year he had warta- warts bad enough he wasn't invited to the wjc in his pre draft year. Not a death knell for a prospect but lafreniere was and it was always a given hed be there and of course he killed it.

    When rnh went first oa- the oilers could have went a lot of ways but they opted for rnh based on what many people thought was pure upside. If they had anything going g kn at that point they might have drafted a different player- rnh draft stock was team situation as much as individual skill. It seems cra?y now but when he was drafted lafrwniere had no competition it was the Lafrwniwre draft and although he was not billed as he elation many models were comfortable sliding him in as a franchise caliber player.

    So whats going on? Well I think this is 100% about opportunity. NYR got two early forst round supposed studs which affects this story. So not being in a traditional rebuild they probably weren't sure what to do with kakko. I think kakko is a very good player and I think he likely still ends up as a 60-70 point winger who is borderline elite defensively like maybe a palat. I think his mature defensive game AND size made him somewhat of a unicorn but I really don't think he had that gamebreaking offensive gear (and maybe he still gets there but I've seen him and he doesn't even seem like thats what he's striving for).

    So the rangers forced him in to the lineup anyways cause he was supposed to be a franchise player lol! He wasn't. He wasn't a disaster but he couldn't keep up with Ziba and panarin. I think the rangers squa.dered pretty much a year or two and decided "were just not gonna do that again". I mean they're wasting precious contract time- they should ultimately be cup contenders with that roster.

    Lafreniere is a different animal imho. He IS that offensive catalyst- he might not have gamebreakkmg speed but not every elite scorer is built that way. I didn't see lst years games but I had high hopes. I was disappointed by the results but in the end I was still optimistic by the narrative the scouts and pundits had spun about him- hes acclimating well, he's a little unlucky, he's shown flashes of brilliance, etc.

    I HAVE seen the games this year. I'm NOT a scout by any means but he's looked very good. That whole kid line looks very good. I think vhytil and kakko are likely 2nd/3rd liners in the long run and they ay like it which limits Laffy opportunities as well. They are going for the safe defensively sound playes- chipping it off the glass- there's nothing wrong with that but when your already only averaging 15 minutes of icetime a game and then you devote a big chunk of that to executing defensive strategies then the results will be what they will.

    Is 12 points in w7 games objectively good? No. But I mean 15 minutes on the third line spending a good chunk of starts in your own zone I submit its not actually all that bad. We don't generally look to third liners with third line defensive deployment for scoring lol!

    Ultimately hes a scoring player and more importantly the staff in NY see him as such. They've stopped forcing the Trochek experiment for now and moved Laffy to zibas line. He responded with two points. Will the floodgates open? Im not sure. I'm kind of expecting a 60ish point pace whilst quietly hoping for more while he's on that line and resigned myself to 30 or less when he's not. I think next year is the year we make a decision on him....

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    To answer your question…Lafreniere was one of the highest scoring rookies in the Q since Crosby (42 goals vs Crosby’s 54). He had one more season in the Q than Crosby but never got within 30-40 points of what Crosby did. Hughes holds the records for points (by 39!) and assists (by 32) in the USNTDP. He’s one spot behind Matthews for goals (6th overall).
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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I think this is a big part of it for Lafreniere. I remember back when he was drafted, saying here that the Rangers were already deep on the left side and this was going to hurt him going there. It's not like he went to a team like Arizona, or Montreal, that lacked depth in pretty much all positions, in order for someone like Lafreniere to get the ice time required for him to take the next step. Personally, I still think the Rangers should have gone with Byfield simply due to team needs but hindsight is what it is.

    The skill level isn't in question, but until Gerard Gallant is ready to actually start using the kids like Kakko and Lafreniere in a big time role consistently, neither will live up to their draft position.
    Good point! Gallant has been frustrating poolies since his days in Vegas lol! He wins games but he's not a great "developer"

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    It purely comes down to deployment, him and Kakko are both in the same boat. GG won't play them ahead of guys like Panarin, and Kreider who had a career year last season. Both Laf and Kakko have the skill to play on a top line and power play on any other team not named < New York Rangers >

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    Healthy scratch tonight…
    12 team Yahoo Roto keeper (keep 3)
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    F: B Tkachuk, Stutzle, Eriksson Ek, Necas, Konecny, Cooley, Boldy, Lehkonen, Tippett
    D: Dahlin, Seider, Matheson, Durzi, Addison, Mintyukov
    G: Hill, Husso

    IR:

    Bench: L Hughes, Merzlikins, Terry, Tuch

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    as said he didn't come to a franchise devoid of talented forwards and it will take time to usurp. Essentially when Kreider really starts dropping off is when an opportunity really arises but also now Kravtsov IMO is starting to percolate. Points aren't there but he's starting to do some slick things out on the ice routinely and GG is wisely playing him with Panarin so they can speak Russian. As far as chance to breakout it's Kakko/Kravtsov then Laffy. He is still 21 and has never been demoted, I have faith but I do not expect him to emerge sooner rather than later. The best way for me and fellow Rangers fans to think of this is that all three mentioned here become formidable players essentially at the same time Mika, Vinny, Artemi, Kreids start to drop off so they can essentially swap out so to speak as far as primary to depth pieces. NYR have never once in my 33 years of life drafted and developed a high end forward so maybe that's just the way it goes in Manhattan.

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    Just wanted to make sure his owners knew he was a scratch…
    12 team Yahoo Roto keeper (keep 3)
    9 F, 6 D; roster 3 G max
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    D: Dahlin, Seider, Matheson, Durzi, Addison, Mintyukov
    G: Hill, Husso

    IR:

    Bench: L Hughes, Merzlikins, Terry, Tuch

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    Default Re: What are the odds Lafreniere will become a top-tier player?

    If you own Laffy you have no choice but to ride things out. It will take time and a change in circumstance, but I believe he will be, or close, to the player most thought he would be. On the other side of the equation, if you're looking for a good buy low opportunity, well, I'm sure a lot of Lafreniere owners are losing patience.
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