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Thread: Another Necas Move?

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    The Great One

    Default Another Necas Move?

    You can skip the italicized pârt if you want and it wont afect the question:

    Ok caveat to Tweetdrivr- I DO value your opinion but in this case I already know ahat it is- lol! To hold Necas. As a quick aside I DO value Necas and if I cant find the right deal Im MORE than happy to keep him. That being said I think there are a variety of ways each year a rebuilding team can improve if theyre paying attention and savvy enough to exploit an un timely injury, a difference in player valuation, a slow start or the hype of a guy whose streaking. On my roster I dont have a lot of guys I can move in those scenarios. I will NOT move Hughes. Im personally sold on Fiala- I believe he will learn to have at least a normal start and when combined with his uisual torrid second halves he could be an elite producer in my sog heavy format. Theres no real point to moving D or G as theyre worth a ton and a team weakness. That leaves Bertuzzi who Id consider moving but he doesnt get a lot of love having one breakout season as a 27 year old and maybe Kuzmenko but hes not poroven enough to net a real return. The rest are just meh- sop far anytways. That just leaves Necas as a strong producer who would motivate another team to make a swap. Its not that I dont like him or think hes a star- I do. Its just like in the Ehlers-Rossi thread if theres a chance to improve positionally or a situation where I could potentially add 2 elite assets for one I just feel like you HAVE to consider that. That last thread kind of provced my point- half the threrad said Id be crazy to do it- the other half said the other owner would be crazy to- lol!

    IN any case the offer at hand is:

    My Necas and one of Severson OR Marino
    For
    Drysdale, Quinn and Nazar


    AA few importantg points before the circus starts!!!

    - This is a goal and sog weighted league. Goals are worth 4, Assists worth 3 and sogs woirth 1 while special teams production adds plus one to that. I look for players that shoot 200 sogs a year or 2 and a half sogs per game at a minimum. Necas falls in that category. Historically hes shot at exactly that rate while this year in his breakout hes up to 3 sogs poer game or 240 sogs a year. That plays for sure and with elite point production clould be elite fantasy production but its not what Im gonna call great numbers. He plays for sure but hes not in that 300+ sog range where youre getting a real advantage from the player based on his penchant for shooting.

    - Dman are golden in this league. Just on scarcity we start 7 forwards compared to 4 or even 5 d. If you dont have a 2nd starting goalie - which happens in an 18 team leaguer you can instead choose to run a 5th dman. On top of that its a bit tricky to follow but instead of the plus or minus one fantasy point that forwards get- they mul;tiply that by 3. I tend to punt plus-minus as its so hard to predict b ut what it tends to do is make core-heavily used defensmen POP even more outside of a handful where there plus minus will kill them. Its why I traded hronek so cheap and now kicking myself a bit- haha!

    - I am rebuilding with an eye likely towards 2 years from now. I think my team is fairly good but the brutal truth is I actually do start my fullest, hotytest, most productive ropster each week and I am in last place by a sizable margin. A big part of that is goaltentdiong which should level out in a year or two when Im mopre serious about competing but its not as simple as tanking for a year to get Berard either. At best- like literally best case scenario I think Ive got this season and safely next punted. In that third year I think I might be oiut of lottery range but I kind of doubt Im realistically competetive even then. Patience is a virtue and Im saying I will be waiting two to threee years regardless so if I can get two- or more- assets that will be impactful by then for one- it really is a win. I know production beats potential every time- thats a whol;e other debate- but Im not just picking random bluechippers either- Im trying to target guys Ive got a very strong feeling about.

    Ive got question marks about Quinn- his commitment to defense is troubling but the last time a guy was tearing up the AHL- Jeff Marek was reporting that Troy Terry waqs the best player in the leaguie- not the best rookie- the best PLAYER! Im getting similar vibes from Quinns AHl campaign. If hes a sog pig like hes touted to be- he only needs to be a 30-30 guy to have a lot of value in this league- HGoffman for ewxample was a beast in our format. If he can get to a ppg or better hes a unicorn. Hes the guy Im maybe the LEAST confident in of the three and he doesnt need to set the world on fire to get pretty good value back- with a small percent chance that he bvlows the lid off things haha!

    I know Nazar has lost a year due to injury but I really feel like hes a special player. A scout I follow fairly closely had an interesting article saying he thinks Nazar has the highest offensive ceiling inb the draft. I think with his understated-strategic style he can replace Necas in the next three years or so. If Im competing that three years is an eternity but realistically Im not so its a wash for me.

    Drysdale is the gem. D is golden and Im weak at D. i really dont like how Zellweger and Minty have seemed to step in as a barrier to being the top ppqb but thats life. When he was drafted he was said to be a fairly special player. Scouts almost accross the board said he was much better than Sanderson and now were seeing what Sanderson is capabkle of lol! So again much like Quinn even if he ended up as an all situations- pp2 type that you pencilled in for 40 and hoped could hit 50 in any given year- THAT has value in our format. The upside is clearly much better but I like to look at the downside when considering these trades too. I really dont think Drysdale would bust right out and indeed am makling the trade with the hopes that hes an offensive guy who finds his niche. Im not ecpecting Makar here or anything but if he COULD lock down the top unit powerplay on a talented ducks team I think hes absolutely a core keeper.

    That leaves the return. Like I said I think Necas is a star and will be in three years when Im competing but Ive got the opportunity to net a sog volume guy with uber potential in our format, a top dman which again is heavuily rewarded and a guy who might be Necas or even Necas lite AS LONG as Im willing to wait on them. I like Marinos skill defensively and IQ- which to me says he at least has it in him to be a 40 point guy going forward. I think he gets 30+ fpor sure this year anyways and we re-evaluate what he is nerxt season. Tose players play in our format but not a guy you might necessarily build around. I believe this owners team can contend for all the marbles if he made a tweak or two down the line and although hes not a sexy name a 35 point dman in opur scoring could be one of those pieces.

    Whats the verdict? Am I getting too fancy? Is this even enough?

    To the last question I think it is because Ive seen so many CANT MISS guys absolutely whiff lol! So even though its a lot of hypothetical value on paper- even the core piece of the return Drysdale- is not actually a proven copmmopdity. Necas is actually DOING it lol! That kind of counts for a lot (everything?). Let me know...

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    Default Re: Another Necas Move?

    In a league that stresses G and SOG, long term, I'd prefer the Drysdale side. As nice as Necas is, there's a decent chance that one or both of Quinn and Drysdale will prove themselves just as, if not more, valuable. Although that may come in 3-4 years, not 2 or fewer.

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