Thanksgiving Standings

[2014olympicgold]

The time ol' American Thanksgiving mark of the season is upon us. I saved last yrs standings at Thanksgiving so lets look at that first (As of Nov 25, 2021). I've added in the difference in their 82game pace on November 25th vs the end of the season points:

2021-22 Season (Thanksgiving):	2021-22 Season (End):
Metro: Carolina - 29pts (18GP) (132pt/82gp) Washington - 29pts (20gp) (119/82gp) NYR - 27pts (19gp) (117/82gp) Atlantic: Florida - 31pts (19gp) (134pt/82gp) Toronto - 29pts (21gp) (113pt/82gp) TBL - 25pts (18gp) (114pt/82gp) WildCard: Columbus - 22pts (17gp) (106pt/82gp) Pittsburgh - 22pts (19gp) (95pt/82gp)	Metro: Carolina - 116pts (-16pt) NYR - 110pts (-7pt) Pitts - 103pts (+8pt) Atlantic: Florida - 122pts (-12pt) Toronto - 115pts (+2pt) TBL - 110pts (-4pt) WilCard: Boston - 107pts Washington - 100pts (-19pt)

2021-22 Season (Thanksgiving)	2021-22 Season (End):
Central: Minnesota - 25pts (19gp) (108pt/82gp) St Louis - 22pts (19gp) (95pt/82gp) Winnipeg - 22pts (19gp) (95pt/82gp) Pacific: Calgary - 29pts (20gp) (119pt/82gp) Edmonton - 28pts (19gp) (121pt/82gp) Vegas - 21pts (20gp) (86pt/82gp) WildCard: Anaheim - 23pts (20gp) (94pt/82gp) Colorado - 21pts (16gp) (108pt/82gp)	Central: Colorado - 119pts (+9pt) Minnesota - 113pts (+5pt) St Louis - 109pts (+14pt) Pacific: Calgary - 111pts (-8pt) Edmonton - 104pts (-17pt) LAK - 99pts WildCard: Dallas - 98pts Nashville - 97pts

East 2022-23 Season (Thanks)	West 2022-23 Season (Thanks)
Metro: NJD - 32pts (20gp) (131pt/82gp) NYI - 26pts (21gp) (102pt/82gp) Canes - 24pts (20gp) (94pt/82gp) Atlantic: BOS - 34pts (20gp) (139pt/82gp) TML - 27pts (21gp) (105pt/82gp) DET - 24pts (19gp) (104pt/82gp) WildCard: NYR - 24pts (21gp) (94pt/82gp) TBL - 23pts (19gp) (99pt/82gp)	Central: Stars - 27pts (20gp) (111pt/82gp) Av's - 23pts (18gp) (105pt/82gp) Jets - 23pts (18gp) (105pt/82gp) Pacific: VGK - 33pts (21gp) (129pt/82gp) Sea - 25pts (19gp) (108pt/82gp) LAK - 24pts (22gp) (89pt/82gp) WildCard: CAL- 21pts (19gp) (91pt/82gp) STL - 20pts (19gp) (86pt/82gp)

So 12 of the 16 spots stayed the same (75%), with 3 of 8 in the west changing (Winnipeg, Anaheim, Vegas)

[2014olympicgold]

So this yrs candidates to dropping off who are in the playoffs today are:
- Seattle - This is only because it's a shock they are doing this well.
- St Louis - 86pts, and a game above .500 while a -10 Goal Diff doesn't bode well for them
- LAK - Sub 90pt pace. They aren't bad...but they aren't good.
- Rangers/TBL - This is more of who has looked good and not them. Florida and Pitts are right there.
- Detroit/NJD/NYI - Can they hold their game? NJD I think they def can, but can Detroit and NYI.

Should be an interesting battle. Going back to the 2005-06 season, teams that are in the playoffs on American Thanksgiving, have a 76.3% (171/224) chance at getting into the playoffs (not including COVID paused yr).

[BloodSport]

Ottawa: So you’re saying there’s a chance.

[lobo1969]

Edmonton currently on the outside looking in, but nobody here is worried....

[Feenom]

Edmonton currently on the outside looking in, but nobody here is worried....

yet…

[hockeyrobot]

Toronto vs Detroit in round 1? I might die.

[Survivor]

Dropping off teams, yes I am a New Jersey Devils fan and with the cushion they have put up, I find it hard for them to fall out of the playoff picture. Not sure if they will stay at the top of the Metro, but I highly doubt they will drop completely out. Detroit is the team I see dropping out in the East.

In the West, St. Louis is not that good and they are not going to make it. I also think the Kings are a team when it is all said and done, will be playing golf during the playoffs.

[stevegamer]

A few things to note.

1. The relative strength of the top of the East versus the West. Right now the East is the better conference.

2. At first, I was confused as to why Montreal was TML, then I realized it's Toronto. That really was odd. Nobody abbreviates the Blue Jays TBJ, do they? I've been a Blue Jays fan since 1977, and I've never once seen that.

3. This list doesn't give the top teams by actual point paces. If you look at this summary list, you see that the Penguins have a higher point% than the Rangers:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2023.html

The Wild are tied with the Blues, but lose wins tie-breaker, etc.



My thoughts are that every team that is below 45% of points is done for the year. Anyone at 50% or higher is definitely in the hunt. Then there are two very injured teams in the middle of that range: Capitals & Flyers. Interestingly, nobody in the west is middling, Arizona is close.

The Flyers have no shot at all, and frankly, it's surprising that they aren't worse. I do think they are going to hang around the fringe of the race, mostly due to Torts. Note the regulation points percentage, they get lots of points from getting to OT.

Capitals need to get healthy, and soon. They're not getting what they need, and the East is greatly improved. I listed them second, because they need to improve to catch the Flyers.

I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that the Kraken make the playoffs.