Ranking vs. current year draft - REP

[FinnishFlash]

Looking for some thoughts on ranking some more-stablished players vs. this years draft class. I have 3 1st round picks in my 16-team salary cap dynasty league this year and have been getting quite a few offers to move them. I won last year, contending again this year. The picks are likely to be all over the place, if I'm guessing, 1 is likely lotto, 1 is mid-round and mine will likely be towards the end.

Cats are G,A,PTS, STP, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK for skaters.

Where would you rank the following vs. this years class (ignore cap space for now, I have plenty):

- Ehlers
- Raymond
- K. Johnson
- Newhook
- Zegras
- Necas
- Jarvis
- Stutzle

I'll likely move one pick prior to the deadline, preferably one of the ones I perceive to be non-lotto, for an upgrade but just trying to get ahead of planning. If someone offers me an established superstar for the lotto pick I'd likely take it however, I don't think any of the above fit that bill quite yet (potential is there for a few of them though).

As always, will REP where I can. Thanks in advance!

[senryu]

Are we talking about comparing the likely ceilings for the named players v. the 2023 draftees? Are we to give young players more value than a guy like Ehlers, for example, as he will be several years older than the draftees and thus will not have as much today-going-forward value? Are we to give players who are producing in the NHL currently more credit than those in the draft class, most of whom won't contribute for a year or more?

[FinnishFlash]

Are we talking about comparing the likely ceilings for the named players v. the 2023 draftees? Are we to give young players more value than a guy like Ehlers, for example, as he will be several years older than the draftees and thus will not have as much today-going-forward value? Are we to give players who are producing in the NHL currently more credit than those in the draft class, most of whom won't contribute for a year or more?

All of the above.

Essentially to bake it down in to a simpler question - If you had a lotto pick (tied to NHL lotto) and were a contending team would you move it for any of those players? Would you if it was a non-lotto pick?

I could have prob left Ehlers off there now that he is on the IR (but I did have an offer of Ehlers for the pick pre-injury so left him on there). We can ignore him, my bad for leaving him on there.

[Fighting_Emu]

My thoughts:

Newhook KJ and Jarvis are all very good but you might as well take them off the list as they aren't producing and your contending. You've literally got upside guys there that are producing now.

Let's take ehlers off based on injury.

That leaves Stutzle Zegras Raymond and Necas.

If its NOT a lottery pick id take any of those guys. They're all high first rounders who have managed to transition productively to the NHL. You're literally just taking out the risk and speeding up the development.

Where it becomes problematic for me is of its a lottery pick. I think Bedard is likely generational. It sounds like Fantilli might be too- kind of like the jack eichel of this years draft. Michkov you have to wait 3 years minimum- its not an eternity but its a long time in fantasy but at the end it looks like we're talking about ANOTHER borderline generational guy. Lastly Leo Karlsson is climbing up the ranks like a madman and if not generational hes at the skill level that he likely would have went first or close to it in the last couple drafts. That is a TON of talent in the top 4.

When you say lottery pick do you mean a guaranteed top 3 or even 4?

I think if it is you have a real conundrum on your hands. For me I would knock out Raymond and necas at that point. I'm very very high on both players but it doesn't look like they have that really truly elite offensive gear that you might have with zegras and especially sstutzle- whom im very high on.

It depends on how sure you are that you can win? How sure you are the pick is top 3 or 4? Depends how many keepers/protections/farm you have each year?

At the end of the day id want to have at least a really good chance of winning and id feel better if there's potential for that pick to drop to 5 or 6 lol! When I go for it I go all in and the players were talking about here are not just rentals either- they become core keepers with their own very good upside so i think i WOULD do it. That being said I would really play up the generational angle of any of the top three guys and try to get value added somehow if I could.

So yes I would do it for stutzle or zegras but I would ask for some type of added value if possible....

[senryu]

The scoring system has blocks, hits, and PIMs. I have no idea what the 2023 class will do for these categories. I'm going to presume that the draftees will not be substantial contributors here. Someone with more eye-test experience can chime in if a 2023 draftee is someone who gets hits and PIMs.

Connor Bedard
Adam Fantilli
Matvei Michkov
Tim Stutzle
Lucas Raymond
Trevor Zegras
Leo Carlsson
Martin Necas
Seth Jarvis
Kent Johnson
Nik Ehlers
2023 Picks 5-10

There's a strong argument for putting Michkov down based on the expected 3 year wait. But it seems near consensus that he's clearly the best Russian since Ovechkin. That carries a lot of weight. Taking Michkov ahead of Fantilli makes complete sense if you don't need those extra couple of years of production that Fantilli is likely to provide.

[random-d]

Those are all quality players that are playing NHL games. I have a hard time ranking anyone that hasn't sniffed an NHL rink ahead of them. Many a prospect has been hyped in a draft year to be better than X percent of his piers but I would say that fails to come to fruition more often than it does. When it does happen it's usually over the course of several seasons during which time all of the listed players will be producing at or above that level. Bedard is the only one I would argue for being equal to or worth more than any one of those players. If these were depth players or prospects that are struggling I could argue that buying another ticket might be a better choice but all of those players have looked like they're going to be great for the foreseeable future.

So for me it's:

Maybe Bedard (meaning the pick is guaranteed to get me him)
All of those players
everything else


To me it boils down to; do I want 5k in my hand, or a chance to win 10k. I'll take the 5k.