Fantasy NHL Team Totals Challenge - Discussion

[Pengwin7]

Looking forward to seeing which of Mrazek, Allen, or Vejmelka P7 leaves me with.

I can tell you right now you'll be left with ARI goalies.
I want no part of that team... especially on a new ice surface.
Goalies hate new ice, new lighting, new atmospheres... just look at Grubauer in Seattle last year.
And Chychrun, I think, will be moved soon enough.

At least Montreal & Chicago will have professional conditions all around them.
[The teams... not so much... but at least their home-ice surface isn't a completely new situ.]

I chose that #8 slot to avoid choosing last... I want nothing to do with anything Arizona.
(Though... if there was one stat I'd be most comfortable drafting last... it's the randomness that is year-to-year SV%... any of last year's bottom 10-12 teams could finish last in SV% this year.)

[Eskimo Brother]

I can tell you right now you'll be left with ARI goalies.
I want no part of that team... especially on a new ice surface.
Goalies hate new ice, new lighting, new atmospheres... just look at Grubauer in Seattle last year.
And Chychrun, I think, will be moved soon enough.

At least Montreal & Chicago will have professional conditions all around them.
[The teams... not so much... but at least their home-ice surface isn't a completely new situ.]

I chose that #8 slot to avoid choosing last... I want nothing to do with anything Arizona.
(Though... if there was one stat I'd be most comfortable drafting last... it's the randomness that is year-to-year SV%... any of last year's bottom 10-12 teams could finish last in SV% this year.)

I would have had them ranked Mtl then ARZ, then CHI. I feel like CHI is going to be worse, and ARZ will have a big home ice advantage especially in the second half of the season when they're used to the ice and visitors aren't. I owned Veggie all year last year in a few leagues, and he had some good games, and with the shot volume I think he can keep up a generally good Sv%. Hoping ARZ waiver claims a better goalie than Johansson to back up though...

[PenguinHunter]

I can tell you right now you'll be left with ARI goalies.
I want no part of that team... especially on a new ice surface.
Goalies hate new ice, new lighting, new atmospheres... just look at Grubauer in Seattle last year.
And Chychrun, I think, will be moved soon enough.

At least Montreal & Chicago will have professional conditions all around them.
[The teams... not so much... but at least their home-ice surface isn't a completely new situ.]

I chose that #8 slot to avoid choosing last... I want nothing to do with anything Arizona.
(Though... if there was one stat I'd be most comfortable drafting last... it's the randomness that is year-to-year SV%... any of last year's bottom 10-12 teams could finish last in SV% this year.)

I am very interested to see everyone's strategy and such after the draft.
The part I am most interested in hearing about is the draft pick selections.

After reading the above comment about not wanting any part of Arizona,
could someone guarantee that they do have any part of Arizona (or any particular team) by selecting the number 2 overall slot?

By ensuring that the final slot that Team #1 has to fill is the same slot that you have to fill as Team #1 then you assure you have an option with your last round pick.
And then on the final turn before the last round... you should have options at every position available that you wouldn't have to pick the team you do not want?

[Invictus]

SA is the most volatile stat, but you can find teams within it that have been pretty consistent. I just decided to be flexible - I think picking 5th I had to be. Since picks were leaning into GF it made me stay away.
I generally agreed I wasn't going to leap frog anyone in GF so went for more sure things in the more volatile cats.

[Pengwin7]

I am very interested to see everyone's strategy and such after the draft.
The part I am most interested in hearing about is the draft pick selections.

After reading the above comment about not wanting any part of Arizona,
could someone guarantee that they do have any part of Arizona (or any particular team) by selecting the number 2 overall slot?

By ensuring that the final slot that Team #1 has to fill is the same slot that you have to fill as Team #1 then you assure you have an option with your last round pick.
And then on the final turn before the last round... you should have options at every position available that you wouldn't have to pick the team you do not want?

I certainly had a strategy - and since we're into the final round, practically - and since I must pick SV%-SV% at my turn, the draft is pretty well set.
EB (likely/I believe) had same strategy:

1. The most dependable stat(s) is goals scored and shots against... probably in that order. 4 of my first 5 picks (I think EB too) were goals scored.
2. Shots against can be dependable, but one major C1orC2 or D1-D4 moving in/out is big deal. That's why I went with CGY-D, Weegar/Kadri coming in should be net-positive vs. the more offensive Gaudreau/Tkachuk.
3. SV% can waffle. We've seen great goalies have an "off-year". So, if you are going to pick a more random stat, which is based on 82gp (82 games x ONE player, goalie)... that's the one to leave to chance.

As an example, at the end of this year, compare last year's with this years at the bottom 5 GF, the bottom 5 SA/gp, the bottom 5 SV%.
ARI, MON, BUF, CHI... these are going to be awful teams for goals-scored (from 18 players per night) and shots against (from 18 players per night)... but yeah, SV%, that's just a hot goalie having a good year... or... a BAD year!


Since I got first pick spot choice... I went #8.... because I wanted to avoid being forced into something.
Looking back, I could've chose earlier and still gone after GF, then SA, then SV%... and I'd still be looking at the randomness of whatever SV% there was left.
So... maybe I could've done that differently.

[Pengwin7]

I would have had them ranked Mtl then ARZ, then CHI. I feel like CHI is going to be worse, and ARZ will have a big home ice advantage especially in the second half of the season when they're used to the ice and visitors aren't. I owned Veggie all year last year in a few leagues, and he had some good games, and with the shot volume I think he can keep up a generally good Sv%. Hoping ARZ waiver claims a better goalie than Johansson to back up though...

Mrazek, IMO, has the best pedigree as a goalie on any of those three teams.
He's a solid goalie but he will struggle under pressure.
IMO - there's no pressure in Chicago this year. They are expected to play poorly.
I'm sure Kyle Davidson is hoping he gets a .888sv% going on.

(But... assuming Mrazek isn't so shady as to take cash-under-table for "losing" games...)

Mrazek does still need to play for a future contract.
And he probably knows he could get traded to a better team if he plays well...
I don't think he'll be awful.
And the CHI defense isn't awful awful. I think they'll be able to defend OK and take up space.
Same thing with the Montreal group of defenders.

Arizona has a bunch of new D-men in Nemeth, J.Brown, and Stecher.
Goalies also hate playing behind new D... because it takes a while to adjust to how they move in front of them.
(Though - Allen is dealing with this a LOT too this year... but, as you say, Allen is the better of these goalies... and Mrazek has full-boat of new D... good point, that's not good for him!)

re: Vejmelka - specifically...
Oh yeah, he had some GREAT games last year, a lot of 1gaa games in Oct, Nov... and a shutout on Nov.29th.
You can draw a nice thick line in his stat tables after November though.
People seem to remember players for their "good starts" in a year.

But imagine how much HOT GARBAGE this guy had to be to have his SV% average out to where it did... I'll help:
DEC 6.15gaa, .818sv%
JAN 3.56gaa, .901sv%
FEB 4.06gaa, .892sv%
MAR 3.00gaa, .921sv%
APR 5.03gaa, .865sv%
So... as the year went on... deep into "we're out of it"... he was awful...
That's gonna happen again...

[Eskimo Brother]

It may happen again with Veggie, but I think there's probably also a factor of exhaustion as to why he dropped off as the season went on. He's had a season to train, and he has known for a while that he is going to be coming into the season as the starter. Very different prep, and probably a little ability to manage yourself a little better to keep yourself sharp through the full season. I'm a little more optimistic on ARZ than most though. I think they will be bad, but I don't think they'll be at the bottom of the totem poll, where I see Chicago. CHI also doesn't have much behind Mrazek, and they may trade him too, so they could fall off even more at the end of the year.

[Pengwin7]

Yeah... Davidson's the first GM I've ever seen really go full-shit in his rebuild.
If Mrazek plays too well, he'll ship him out of town!!!

I can't wait for CHI vs. ARI this year... that's gonna be something to not watch.

[Eskimo Brother]

I might watch it just to compare it to OHL/OJHL hockey level. Might be fun.

[niconasr]

And now watch both teams start the season super strong.

[Invictus]

1. The most dependable stat(s) is goals scored and shots against... probably in that order. 4 of my first 5 picks (I think EB too) were goals scored.
2. Shots against can be dependable, but one major C1orC2 or D1-D4 moving in/out is big deal. That's why I went with CGY-D, Weegar/Kadri coming in should be net-positive vs. the more offensive Gaudreau/Tkachuk.
3. SV% can waffle. We've seen great goalies have an "off-year". So, if you are going to pick a more random stat, which is based on 82gp (82 games x ONE player, goalie)... that's the one to leave to chance.

Don't entirely agree with this..

Comparing 2 seasons ago to last season SA was the most volatile as a whole.
Though maybe we are taking a different perspective on this... as SA saw much larger swings on some teams, while SV% was less really large swings but less 0-2 rank movements (if this is making sense).
But both SA and SV% were by a larger margin more volatile then GF (as said).

As an example, at the end of this year, compare last year's with this years at the bottom 5 GF, the bottom 5 SA/gp, the bottom 5 SV%.
ARI, MON, BUF, CHI... these are going to be awful teams for goals-scored (from 18 players per night) and shots against (from 18 players per night)... but yeah, SV%, that's just a hot goalie having a good year... or... a BAD year!

Since I got first pick spot choice... I went #8.... because I wanted to avoid being forced into something.
Looking back, I could've chose earlier and still gone after GF, then SA, then SV%... and I'd still be looking at the randomness of whatever SV% there was left.
So... maybe I could've done that differently.

I disagree that MTL is going to be an awful (by awful we are talking bottom 5) team for GF. I was quite happy to get them with a 2nd last pick.
Under MSL I believe they were a 15th ranked for GF team
I mean they could totally turn out to be bottom ranked as you said, that's the joys of playing this - the anticipation!, but I think/hoping I squeezed out some good value with that pick .



I also think 5th didn't help me as much as I thought it would... With how categories got filled out I didn't really avoid what I wanted to avoid. I could have moved up and maybe secured 2nd pick and gotten CAR (SA) that I wanted. It was my least favourite cat and that would of gotten me off on a better start.

[Pengwin7]

Don't entirely agree with this..

Comparing 2 seasons ago to last season SA was the most volatile as a whole.
Though maybe we are taking a different perspective on this... as SA saw much larger swings on some teams, while SV% was less really large swings but less 0-2 rank movements (if this is making sense).
But both SA and SV% were by a larger margin more volatile then GF (as said).

Well, 2020-21 is going to be a (trying to think of word...) anomaly.
That season, because of COVID/travel, NHL set up teams to play only their division for the 25-ish games.
Carter Hart got toasted by the Rangers that year... I'll never forget it.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/spli...4582/year/2021


You'd need maybe to go further back and just compare two regular full 82gp NHL seasons.
Maybe 17/18 and 18/19.

That said... I may be wrong... but any stat generated by 18-players (skater group of 12F/6D per night) over 82gp should be more steady, year-to-year, than a singular stat where one goalie is in charge of 1/82 of a season, each game. A great goalie can be great, year-to-year, true. But a bad goalie might be replaced... or he might feel less pressure... or a good goalie might feel more pressure. Case-in-point is Carter Hart who has gone from .917-to-.914-to-.877-to-.905(last year).



I've been tracking shots-against fairly closely for 15-20 years now.
I'm always very interested in team defense... as I feel that's the most-telling thing that a coach & his coaching methods, can control.

[Invictus]

To add (thought of it after)... We are most concerned with predictability so I don't think I disagree with that first statement as much as I first thought...

I would wager the changes in SA could be more easily/accurately predicted (loss of a 2-way fwd or d-man, coach change) then the changes in SV%.
(Don't know for sure would have to look further into that)

I'll do some other years when I have some more time just to see what they produce.

______________________________________

And I agree that bottom SV% can be the most random of the 3 cats... so picking last in it would have been more ideal.
Doing this again I probably would have chosen to start with pick#2. Secured the CAR (SA) pick I most wanted and then leaving SV% as my last pick.

[4T2]

I think what would make the SA standing so volatile is that the difference from the top teams to the bottom is so small. 7.3 shots per game last year. And you have 25 teams who would fall within 5 shots/game of each other. It doesn't take a large change to swing 10-15 points in the standings. The top teams for this stat like Carolina should stay good and the bottom teams like Arizona should stay bad.

But looking at the draft results, would anyone be surprised to see the 10th round drafted Red Wings or Sharks SA outproduce the 4th round drafted Kraken SA? It could happen quite easily.

What are the chances though that the tenth round Sharks SV% ends up better than the fourth round Avalanche SV%? Or the tenth round Islanders GF being better than the fourth round Capitals GF?

I think the most room for movement comes in the SA column for sure. SV% can be prone to volatile swings for the reasons you guys have already covered, but they seem a little easier to predict.

[4T2]

As far as picks go, I believe the next two are defaults:

EB - Arizona SV%
4t2 - Arizona SA

Leaving PH to decide between his homer Flyers or Arizona