Marchand - When To Pick In One-Year H2H Leagues?

[metaldude26]

When is the best time to pick Brad Marchand in one-year H2H leagues? I see the ADP of 116 and average round of 10.3 on Yahoo, but I'm not buying it. I presume this is being influenced by points-only leagues where having a player miss two months will hugely depress value. I suspect roto leagues are even pushing this down as well.

I've done a number of mocks, and just completed my first real draft. I keep finding that by about pick 40 all the slam dunk options are off the board and my eye starts wandering over to Marchand. I took him at 49 in my real draft (an 8-Team points-based H2H league) where I was on the turn, so another 14 picks away. I've seen Marchand fall into the 70's in some mocks, but I figure once you've cleared out the top two tiers of wingers, you should start looking at Marchand and that's been happening around pick 40 for me. My top two tiers for wingers BTW:

T1 LW - Draisaitl, Kaprizov
T1 RW - Kucherov
T2 LW - Huberdeau, Miller, Connor, Gaudreau, Svechnikov, Ovechkin, Meier, Stamkos, Guentzel, Panarin
T2 RW - Marner, Tkachuk, Rantanen, Pastrnak, Meier

As I'm sure you've noticed, it's really thin on the wings. Once these guys have gone Marchand starts looking very appealing.

When have you found the right time to pounce is?

[Feenom]

He's a point per game guy, I wouldn't hesitate to pluck him around picks 40-55. I've done 2 drafts and because he sprinkles a bit on all cats he's going 4th round average. I've done an offline auction draft with a cap of $25 and he was taken at $2.70. He will be back way before Xmas and has already started skating. He's a multi cat stud. I'm not surprised.

[niconasr]

I agree the 45-60 range is where I'd pick him. That being said, double hip surgery is scary! I can't say I don't have a few doubts as to how well he'll produce once he's back.

[RizzeeDizzee]

FWIW, I drafted Eichel last season at 65th overall in my main league, and his situation was iffier than Marchand's.

[marsid6687]

I keep wondering, at least for Yahoo leagues, when Yahoo will add LW or RW designations to some of the Center only players or where the player is designated only as a LW or RW. I believe that has happened every year now for quite some time.

[Caps Crazy]

I would say a good time to snag Marchand would be in the 50 to 60 range.

[TheMule_91]

You say you either drafted him at 49th overall or wait another 14 picks. I think you were right to draft him when you did and I don't think he'd last until 63rd overall. Without speculating if he can return from double-hip surgery, Marchand is an elite LW player expected to miss a month of hockey.

When Pastrnak had hip surgery 2 or 3 seasons ago, in my H2H cats league, he went between 42nd and 45th overall. I'll be targeting Marchand in the 4th round this season.

[Belexus75]

if you confident you can draft good enough to squeeze to the playoffs no matter what, then i would target him as early as round -3-4 ...i think he will still be top 20 guy based on points per game performance.

[1320kid]

FWIW he just went late 9th in my yearly redraft points league.

[LawMan]

In my league: 8 of 12 make playoffs, head-to-head, 9 skater categories. NO IR spots
I like him in the 4th round.
picks 37-48. early in the 4th would be a tough call but if I have 37 I still think its worth the risk knowing its unlikely he survives to #60.
If healthy Marchand is a #8-14 overall in my league. A consistent #5-8 the last few years.

In previous years I have been reluctant to grab injured players worrying about recovery but more often than not for elite players that grab has paid off.

Last year a few similar players went:

Eichel in the 7th
Kane in the 14th
Malkin in the 8th

All became massive steals come playoff time. It doesn't matter if you finish #1 or #8 in the regular season. Adding the potential of a PPG player at the "trade deadline" or fantasy playoffs is massive.
I have the confidence I can use 1 of 5 bench spots (again, No IR) on Marchand and be just fine for the playoffs.

[Stifler]

in a one year league i'm avoiding him at all cost. I don't trust the double hip. let it be someone else's problem. There's comparable value to be had that doesn't come with huge risks in my opinion

[dmk2401]

I agree with Stifler