2022 prospects, best in pts only ?

[berni67]

I can pick a top 5 prospects in this 2022 HNL draft.

Who have the best ceiling in the group. I can sit him in my farm few seasons if needed. I thinking about Slaf, Cooley, Nemec, Wright, or other

rep to all

[Axeman33]

The best "projected ceiling" is probably Cooley but the chances of someone reaching their ceiling any time soon is usually slim. Look at the past few draft and tell me how many of them have reached their projected ceiling? I'd say next to none.

[Feenom]

Cooley then Wright. Ceiling is still far from reach as Axe said.

[Belexus75]

to me top 5 in points only would be

Cooley
Savoie
Wright
Slafkovski
Nazar

but realisticaly top 3 drafted in any format should be Wright, Slafkovski, Cooley just based on value

[Pengwin7]

1. Slaf
...
2. Cooley
3. Wright
4. Savoie
5. Lekkerimaki
1-12... Roll that Dice... Nazar

Those in the WHL fantasy league can confirm I had #1 overall pick and took Slafkovsky.
Let's be honest, nobody on this fantasy site is smarter than the collective Montreal GM and scouting team.
They took a winger over two fairly high-end centers.
Let that sink in.

Just about everybody with half-a-hockey brain knows that the defensive contributions that centers provide make them oodles more valuable than a winger.
80pt Center >> 80pt Wing
I think most GMs would even prefer a 70pt Two-Way Center over an 80pt Wing.

So... for me... to see the Montreal franchise take the winger... is clear indicator that they see a pointing-upside MUCH higher than Cooley or Wright.
After all, Cooley and Wright are centers and have a certain amount of value in taking a face-off and marking up on a defensive zone faceoff and being in general charge of 3rd forward on opposing line.

Whereas Slaf, as a winger, is much freer to break-out earlier and stay in the offensive zone a bit deeper.
Hence... more.effin.points.
The PP1 unit in Montreal with Suzuki and Caufield is already taking great shape as a dynamic unit. They are one D-point man away from having something exciting for the future.
And PP1 points (see McDavid, Draisaitl) are the major key towards breaking the 100pt barrier in the NHL.

To that effect, both Cooley and Wright are high-end players will get their points.
I prefer Cooley slightly over Wright because Cooley has a clearer path towards C1 linemates and minutes.
M.Beniers is a VERY good prospect and a year ahead of Wright. He may end up being the C1 with better ES linemates than Wright.

I don't see the small Savoie playing center on a loaded BUF prospect team, so I think he'll score a LOT.
And I'll go with the next 2022 drafted winger, Lekkerimaki, as my 5th, for similar "winger" reasons as Slaf.


The major wild-card is Frank Nazar.
And it depends on the Chicago 2023 draft pick.
If Chicago happens to land Bedard, I think Nazar ends up shifting to a top line wing... and I'd immediately shift him to a pointing upside close to Slaf/Cooley/Wright

IF Nazar ends up winging with Bedard... he might be the highest of this group.

That said, if CHI doesn't land Bedard...
And if CHI wants Nazar groomed as a C1...
He's in for a LOT of learning-curve time playing two-way NHL hockey.
He's good... but playing C1 two-way NHL hockey is super, duper hard... and it steals from a lot of the offensive upside of a player.

[speaking of Bedard... it's also worth wondering what happens if Bedard lands in MON... or ARI... or SEA... since those are bad teams that could land him as well...]

[Belexus75]

1. Slaf
...
2. Cooley
3. Wright
4. Savoie
5. Lekkerimaki
1-12... Roll that Dice... Nazar

Those in the WHL fantasy league can confirm I had #1 overall pick and took Slafkovsky.
Let's be honest, nobody on this fantasy site is smarter than the collective Montreal GM and scouting team.
They took a winger over two fairly high-end centers.
Let that sink in.

Just about everybody with half-a-hockey brain knows that the defensive contributions that centers provide make them oodles more valuable than a winger.
80pt Center >> 80pt Wing
I think most GMs would even prefer a 70pt Two-Way Center over an 80pt Wing.

So... for me... to see the Montreal franchise take the winger... is clear indicator that they see a pointing-upside MUCH higher than Cooley or Wright.
After all, Cooley and Wright are centers and have a certain amount of value in taking a face-off and marking up on a defensive zone faceoff and being in general charge of 3rd forward on opposing line.

Whereas Slaf, as a winger, is much freer to break-out earlier and stay in the offensive zone a bit deeper.
Hence... more.effin.points.
The PP1 unit in Montreal with Suzuki and Caufield is already taking great shape as a dynamic unit. They are one D-point man away from having something exciting for the future.
And PP1 points (see McDavid, Draisaitl) are the major key towards breaking the 100pt barrier in the NHL.

To that effect, both Cooley and Wright are high-end players will get their points.
I prefer Cooley slightly over Wright because Cooley has a clearer path towards C1 linemates and minutes.
M.Beniers is a VERY good prospect and a year ahead of Wright. He may end up being the C1 with better ES linemates than Wright.

I don't see the small Savoie playing center on a loaded BUF prospect team, so I think he'll score a LOT.
And I'll go with the next 2022 drafted winger, Lekkerimaki, as my 5th, for similar "winger" reasons as Slaf.


The major wild-card is Frank Nazar.
And it depends on the Chicago 2023 draft pick.
If Chicago happens to land Bedard, I think Nazar ends up shifting to a top line wing... and I'd immediately shift him to a pointing upside close to Slaf/Cooley/Wright

IF Nazar ends up winging with Bedard... he might be the highest of this group.

That said, if CHI doesn't land Bedard...
And if CHI wants Nazar groomed as a C1...
He's in for a LOT of learning-curve time playing two-way NHL hockey.
He's good... but playing C1 two-way NHL hockey is super, duper hard... and it steals from a lot of the offensive upside of a player.

[speaking of Bedard... it's also worth wondering what happens if Bedard lands in MON... or ARI... or SEA... since those are bad teams that could land him as well...]

i think big problem here is that unless miracle happens Slaf wont sniff 60 points let alone 80 for 5 years based on similar players in the past. i also think he brings way more to NHL team than purely scoring and that's why he was taken #1 not cause he has a highest point total ceiling. For points only i dont think he is the play here at all, he may not even be in top 5 when all is set and done.

[Axeman33]

1. Slaf
...
2. Cooley
3. Wright
4. Savoie
5. Lekkerimaki
1-12... Roll that Dice... Nazar

Those in the WHL fantasy league can confirm I had #1 overall pick and took Slafkovsky.
Let's be honest, nobody on this fantasy site is smarter than the collective Montreal GM and scouting team.
They took a winger over two fairly high-end centers.
Let that sink in.

Just about everybody with half-a-hockey brain knows that the defensive contributions that centers provide make them oodles more valuable than a winger.
80pt Center >> 80pt Wing
I think most GMs would even prefer a 70pt Two-Way Center over an 80pt Wing.

So... for me... to see the Montreal franchise take the winger... is clear indicator that they see a pointing-upside MUCH higher than Cooley or Wright.
After all, Cooley and Wright are centers and have a certain amount of value in taking a face-off and marking up on a defensive zone faceoff and being in general charge of 3rd forward on opposing line.

Whereas Slaf, as a winger, is much freer to break-out earlier and stay in the offensive zone a bit deeper.
Hence... more.effin.points.
The PP1 unit in Montreal with Suzuki and Caufield is already taking great shape as a dynamic unit. They are one D-point man away from having something exciting for the future.
And PP1 points (see McDavid, Draisaitl) are the major key towards breaking the 100pt barrier in the NHL.

To that effect, both Cooley and Wright are high-end players will get their points.
I prefer Cooley slightly over Wright because Cooley has a clearer path towards C1 linemates and minutes.
M.Beniers is a VERY good prospect and a year ahead of Wright. He may end up being the C1 with better ES linemates than Wright.

I don't see the small Savoie playing center on a loaded BUF prospect team, so I think he'll score a LOT.
And I'll go with the next 2022 drafted winger, Lekkerimaki, as my 5th, for similar "winger" reasons as Slaf.


The major wild-card is Frank Nazar.
And it depends on the Chicago 2023 draft pick.
If Chicago happens to land Bedard, I think Nazar ends up shifting to a top line wing... and I'd immediately shift him to a pointing upside close to Slaf/Cooley/Wright

IF Nazar ends up winging with Bedard... he might be the highest of this group.

That said, if CHI doesn't land Bedard...
And if CHI wants Nazar groomed as a C1...
He's in for a LOT of learning-curve time playing two-way NHL hockey.
He's good... but playing C1 two-way NHL hockey is super, duper hard... and it steals from a lot of the offensive upside of a player.

[speaking of Bedard... it's also worth wondering what happens if Bedard lands in MON... or ARI... or SEA... since those are bad teams that could land him as well...]

Considering Montreal's ability to draft and develop prospects in the past , some could argue that statement LOL!

[Pengwin7]

1. You guys don't have to quote my whole post. You are breaking my mouse-scrolling wheel.
2. I wouldn't say current GM/group in Montreal is same as past GM/group in Montreal.
3. OP only asked about "best ceiling"... didn't ask about timeline.

[Axeman33]

1. You guys don't have to quote my whole post. You are breaking my mouse-scrolling wheel.
2. I wouldn't say current GM/group in Montreal is same as past GM/group in Montreal.
3. OP only asked about "best ceiling"... didn't ask about timeline.

Sorry, LOL!

The problem is, we don't know how good the newer group in Montreal will do. The old group was terrible so this new group with Gorton "should" be better but when you're as bad as Montreal has been, anything would look like an improvement. If they havent drafted/developed well, and the current group is just meh, that doesn't offer much for Slafkovsky to work with. I like Suzuki as much as the next guy, but I dont see him as a true 1C even though he's going to be paid like one and will be the best Slafkovsky will have to work with.

[Pengwin7]

If you have a link to it... theathletic article about MON management choice on Slafkovsky is good read.
(Now, I'll be fair.... of COURSE they are going to have to gush over their own choice... but one also learns a lot in there... specifically towards things like the conservative/defensive aspect required in Liiga. And I think everybody that poo-poos Slaf's upside is doing it based on his low Liiga numbers. Wright looks very good compared to an all-time weak OHL talent level, IMO. And Cooley looks great playing USHL, low-level college opponents with stacked linemates. Slaf played in, by far, the toughest, most defensive league of the three.)

From that article:

But the real difference-maker here was the type of player Slafkovsky is and how rare they are in the NHL. Yes, it is difficult to find a two-way, top-6 centre anywhere other than in the draft, but the Canadiens felt it is just as difficult, if not more so, to find a player with Slafkovsky’s combination of size and skill and scoring ability. The Canadiens looked at past drafts and, as well as they could, into future drafts, and determined that players like Slafkovsky come up less often than players like Wright or Cooley.

[YzermansLegacy]

For me the highest ceiling still sits with Wright. In pure points, he's the guy I'm taking. (And what he did in the OHL as an underager was VERY special)

P7's nuanced take with Slaf is BOTH spot-on AND incomplete (imho).

Slaf's package indeed is a rare one, and highly coveted by NHL GMs (think the way RH Dmen are coveted). He'll be REALLY good no question in my mind.

BUT... the "unique" part of that package is SIZE (+ability) not the scoring prowess. A recent "behind the scenes" (youtube) on the Habs draft day/planning talked about how if they take Slaf at #1, then they don't have to chase SIZE later in the draft. (And they nailed that with the Rohrer and Hutson picks imo)

So the full package of what Slaf will bring may indeed be the highest in terms of "rarity", and therefore worthy of the top pick, but to me, that doesn't directly translate to points-ceiling.

It's all 'projection' at this point but for purely fantasy points-only... Wright for me.

[Axeman33]

They aren't wrong but we've seen lots of kids with this size and skill come along and not really reach their potential. Most recently, Kakko comes to mind as he's a similar player to Slafkovsky heading into their respective drafts seeing as both were very productive versus pros heading into the draft.

Byron Bader did a lot of comparisons using his model as well, primarily with Rantanen, and Slafkovsky didn't fair so well there. I like Bader and his data that he uses. Of course nothing is fool proof. A lot depends on the team and their development process but a LOT depends on the drive and desire for these kids to better themselves. That's why you so frequently see 1st round picks fade after the draft and later round kids emerge to become NHL regulars and sometimes, stars. Of course there's no model to tell us that nor could we even begin to imagine how that would play out.

If you weren't familiar with Bader's calculations on Slafkovsky, here's the twitter thread he had out a while back that still sticks with me. Scroll down through his comments as he can only put so much info into one tweet.

https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/stat...KonjArM0eOQbxA

At the end of the day, none of us own a crystal ball so none of us can tell you who will pan out and who will flop. I "trust" NHL scouts as much as I can but scouting is only one part of it. What happens after the draft is what makes these kids into NHL player, both on the teams end and the players as well.

[berni67]

Should I draft Wyatt Johnston, he is still available

[Belexus75]

Should I draft Wyatt Johnston, he is still available

not above the top guys in 2022, but maybe somewhere from 6-10

[jcairns]

This conversation is interesting and is reminding me of Jack Quinn vs Rossi.

Every fantasy manager has overhyped Rossi since his draft year, yet Buffalo chose to draft Quinn over him. And if you listen to interviews with them on the decision, Buffalo management and scouting decided Quinn had the better trajectory and higher upside, and that's why they took him and left Rossi on the table.

And since being drafted, Quinn has outperformed Rossi by a wide margin and absolutely tore up in the AHL in a manner few players have for his age.

Yet, somehow... it seems like fantasy managers have convinced themselves Rossi is the higher upside, even though an entire NHL management and scouting team decided otherwise, and since that day all that has happened was their assessment has been proven correct.

I'm with Pengwin here and I also go Slav for upside in points only for the reasons he stated.