Help with last forward keeper

[pumpkinxyz]

Without debating why I wouldn't keep all 3 or 2 of them, if you had to pick a last keeper who would it be?

Kucherov 9.5M$ / 5 years
Pastrnak 6.67M$ / 1 year
Robertson RFA

League in sig. Pts only limited keeper. Really hoping Robertson signs before our drop date of August 11.

Thanks.

[Belexus75]

im confused, do you keep 7 forwards? i dont know how those are last 3 you choosing form if thats a case. If i need to pick 1 its probably Pasta due to contract.

However following would be my 7 keepers

Mcdavid
Pasta
Kucherov,
Hubs,
Guentzel
Robertson

Last one, for this year Fiala, for future Zegras , i think it be easier to redraft fiala

[pumpkinxyz]

im confused, do you keep 7 forwards? i dont know how those are last 3 you choosing form if thats a case. If i need to pick 1 its probably Pasta due to contract.

Hence the ''Without debating why I wouldn't keep all 3 or 2 of them''.

Its a complicated subject but everyone in my league is obsessed with getting the productive low salary players and my first pick this year is at round 5 so keeping Zegras, Raymond and Kyrou is actually a better strategy if I look at past drafts. A few years ago I drafted McDavid at round 5 and Carlson at round 6 because previous owners weren't able to win with them and thought it was because of their cap hit, so they didn't protect them and I was almost 100% sure I could draft them at those rounds and was right. Since then I got 2 championships and a 2nd place in 3 years. It's all about knowing your league.

I am gonna send out trade offers for Kyrou though so I can replace him with another of the 3 mentioned.

[tobias]

If you are only thinking about this next year, then it's got to be Pasternak, even with all the uncertainty and injuries in Boston. Beyond that, as contracts even up, it's Kucherov for me.

[teepee1]

Ill go Kuch as he legitimately can go 120 points if all goes right. You just take it.

[stevegamer]

The info on your league is really helpful for me, because it points me to "Not Kucherov". he's expensive, has been hurt a bunch lately, and if McDavid went in round 5 due his salary, Kucherov will drop as well.

I'd prefer Robertson & Pastrnak over Kyrou, so I would definitely look at a trade there. Voted Robertson.

[pumpkinxyz]

I might be the only one, but I find it weird that Kyrou gets no love here. At 2.8M$ he is great in cap leagues. Even if he drops down to around 70 pts it's still great value.

[random-d]

I might be the only one, but I find it weird that Kyrou gets no love here. At 2.8M$ he is great in cap leagues. Even if he drops down to around 70 pts it's still great value.

Probably because he isn't one of the options in the poll?

[pumpkinxyz]

Probably because he isn't one of the options in the poll?

If you read the comments I mentioned I might try and trade him and stevegamer agreed with that. Belexus75 lists his keepers and doesn't list him. I also posted another thread probably about 1 month ago asking who my keepers should be and no one selected Kyrou.

Maybe I should have just asked if Kyrou should be one of my keepers in this league format!?

[stevegamer]

I think Kyrou could be solid value, but I trust the 3 guys in the poll more to produce. It seems to me that Kyrou is the kind of guy who will be heavily desired in your league, and can net you a better pick than the more proven guys. I suspect Robertson may come in cheaper than we think, which would also make him a great value.

That's the reason I suggested trading Kyrou, if I wasn't clear.

[Belexus75]

2.8m player with 60 points is only better then 8mil player with 80 points if you have no cap space. We have no idea what is your cap situation and i will not create spreadsheet just to figure out your cap...so we go on player value based on performance.

As for Kyrou this year he will be great value in cap leagues but next year he will probably be pretty poor value. I also think that STL window is going to be closing soon and there will be a retooling period which will hurt Kyrou and others.

[LawMan]

For me it is still Kucherov. Injuries remain a concern, but he has a fair contract for a guy with 100+ point potential and for whatever reason I think he plays 70+ games this year. You don't mention how cap crunched you are and so its hard to determine the exact right play but given your lineup I would be looking to go with a hard "expensive/cheap" split strategy. Lock down great keepers who you pay for and then supplement that with a lot of cheap streamers as the season goes on.

You had both McDavid and Kuch last year and the remainder of your bench was still quality guys so I assume it is possible again.

[pumpkinxyz]

You don't mention how cap crunched you are and so its hard to determine the exact right play but given your lineup I would be looking to go with a hard "expensive/cheap" split strategy. Lock down great keepers who you pay for and then supplement that with a lot of cheap streamers as the season goes on.

Here's my thinking on this. We have a cap of 82.5M$ for 20 active players so it comes down to 4.125M$/player. As LawMan said a part of it is going with the expensive/cheap split strategy but also add in the players that are around the 4.125M$. So as of right now (because I keep changing my mind), lets assume I keep Kucherov, I would have the following keepers (12 total so 3/5 of active roster):

McDavid
Zegras
Raymond

explanation : McDavid earns about 3 times the average salary/player, so Zegras and Raymond on ELCs balances that out. Don't think I'll get to pick as productive players on ELCs at the draft.

Kucherov
Swayman

explanation : So I decided few years back that goalies were too hard to predict from year to year so why not just go with cheap options. Sways balances out Kucherov's salary

Huberdeau
Guentzel
Kyrou

explanation : All three add up to 4.87M$/player...close enough

Theodore
Chychrun
Gostisbehere
Q. Hughes

explanation : nothing really just the 4 most valuable I think. A little over the pts/player needed but not too bad.

That brings my total protected cap to 61.625M$ for 12 players out of 20 against cap of 82.5M$. I've already narrowed down most other GMs keeper lists by talking with them (real life friends) and the GM protecting the less salary is around the 42M$ and the highest around the 55M$. So I'm already over all others and I am not keeper all my ''best'' players. I'm left with 20.875M$ for 8 players left to draft which comes to only 2.6M$/player.

So as you see I'll already have to draft some ELCs to add 1-3 decent contracts. I think it would be near impossible to draft value picks like Zegras, Raymond and Kyrou as opposed to drafting a few decent contracts that will bring good value. Most ELCs drafted are either ''busts'' in their first few years or might rack up 35-50 pts max... unless like most years I hit one out of the park (last year Raymond).

Now I'm back with the ''who's my last keeper''. Kucherov highest upside with ok contract and years left. Pasta with very good $ value but just 1 year left. And Robertson who I'm really hoping signs before Thursday midnight so I can get a clearer picture. Trades are almost impossible in my league right now. Only offer I got was a 4th rounder for Pasta. I'll also add that we are adding an 8th GM this year who'll pick his 12 first players out of all FAs left after we hand in our keeper lists. And we are possibly adding a 9th GM next year so contract length becomes even more important as it will become harder and harder at draft day.

With all this being said, if you are still reading this... thank you and I praise your patience.

[pumpkinxyz]

Update :

I traded Pasta for a draft pick + pick upgrade. The best and only offer I had was a 4th rounder + upgraded my tenth to a seventh. Very low return for Pasta but the 4th rounded is now my best pick this coming draft.

Handing in my list tomorrow. So far Kucherov is ahead... anyone a Robertson fan that would risk keeping him and hope for a bridge deal?

[ross10019]

Update :

I traded Pasta for a draft pick + pick upgrade. The best and only offer I had was a 4th rounder + upgraded my tenth to a seventh. Very low return for Pasta but the 4th rounded is now my best pick this coming draft.

Handing in my list tomorrow. So far Kucherov is ahead... anyone a Robertson fan that would risk keeping him and hope for a bridge deal?

I would be shocked if he signed a bridge deal - you're looking at a Suzuki or Norris-type deal I would think, and likely higher.