Ehlers v Sergachev+

[GavinC]

For my dynasty league in sig (Ice Cap, 32 teams), I've got some pretty decent cap issues, looking to unload obvious guys like Gallagher and Wennberg, but I've got an interesting offer on the table for Ehlers, who is obviously a pretty good own for cap purposes.

Ehlers/3-9 (this season) for Sergachev/1st (2024)

The first is obviously a ways off, so hard to gauge right now (likely not a lottery pick, and if it is, it'll be a long-shot), but Sergachev is coming up to that theoretical breakout stage (400GP), $1.2 cheaper, 3 years younger, and I would wager not likely to sign for more (or much more) than Ehlers next season. Ehlers on the other hand is signed for 3 more seasons at $6, pretty good value.

For reference (league should also be publicly viewable):

Ehlers pt/gm last 3 seasons: 1.2, 1.4, 1.4
Sergachev pt/gm last 3 seasons: 0.9, 1.0, 1.0

Replacement level for points is pretty close to par for F/D, but average $/pt for above replacement players is roughly $9k cheaper for F. Sergachev though is ~$4.5k cheaper than Ehlers there.

Anyway, part of me feels like this is basically a free 1st, but I'm just not quite sure about blind spots.

Any advice is much appreciated!

[Bubba55]

It would be useful if we could see what your team actually looks like. In a 32 team Dynasty, I can't help but think that Ehlers and Sergachev both have significant value and how that translates specifically into your squad is somewhat important here. It might be a "free 1st", it might not.

[GavinC]

Thanks man, yeah link to my roster is in my sig, although maybe not showing up properly. Here: https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/leag...srtbvql2rzgux2

[stevegamer]

Given your roster, I'd make that deal. You seem to have better F depth & pipeline than on D.

[GavinC]

Given your roster, I'd make that deal. You seem to have better F depth & pipeline than on D.

Thanks man, yeah it does feel like a no-brainer, I'm just overly attached to Ehlers, so it's good to get your guys's opinions. I'd rep but I'm still a lightweight after all these years

[Bubba55]

Thanks man, yeah it does feel like a no-brainer, I'm just overly attached to Ehlers, so it's good to get your guys's opinions. I'd rep but I'm still a lightweight after all these years

Being overly attached to Ehlers is not a bad thing. You were bang on when you said his contract for the next three years is a good one, 6 Mil for the next 3 years! I agree, this is a decent trade for you as is, but maybe we can do better. What if you offered the other GM Johnny Hockey? I love Gaudreau but if he signs for a major shit load of $$ his value in a multi cat league gets even worse. A bad contract compared to Ehlers if Johnny hits pay dirt. I'd much rather add Sergachev and the 1st for Gaudreau and the big contract than Ehlers with the cap friendly contract. Given the year Johnny had, maybe asks for a 1st next year not 2024?

[GavinC]

It's not a bad thought, but so far Johnny is proving to have less value than Ehlers. Rebuilders don't really want him, and the competitive teams are well aware of the contract year performance/upcoming cap hit. I'm gonna hold on him until I know for sure what his contract looks like, just because there's very little difference between selling him now with the prospect of the huge contract, and the actual contract. If he for some reason signs a sweetheart deal with Calgary, well then that changes everything!

[GavinC]

Pulled the trigger, I talked him back a few spots on the 3rd, so the final trade was:

Ehlers/3-17 for Sergachev/1st (2024)

Thanks for your input folks!