Filip Forsberg - Where do we go from here?

[kovalchuk17]

I didnt see a similar thread recently so decided to make one since I imagine many like me who drafted Filip Forsberg relatively late (around pick #90-110) got an absolute steal.

Filip's numbers in 69 games. 42 goals, 42 assists, 84 points, 37 PPP, 226 SOGs. These pace for 50g+50a=100p along with over 3 SOGs per game. His hits and blocks are not bad also if your league is into that.

By any reasonable measure this is a career year where everything broke right in a contract year. 18% personal S%, IPP of 72%. Roman Josi had a career year. Filip's wing partner for most of the year in Matt Duchene also had a career year with his own 19% S%. Despite this, Filip is only ranked in the low-40s in Keeper League Points Only Rankings for Dobber. While likely not going to be repeated, he has to be a threat for 82-90 points while hes in his prime I would think.

In my league he's a borderline keeper after Auston Matthews and Kirill Kaprizov in a 12-man keep 3 points league where points then SOGs is most important. PIMs and PPP help slightly also. I won last season then finished in second place this season by less than a point My third keeper was Andrei Svechnikov but he has not taken the leap I expected of him in Year 4 and Rod's line juggling is really frustrating. Im trying to acquire a stud young dman if i can but if not I need to be ready to keep someone as I am in win-now mode.

The way I see it if Filip is to be treated like a top-25 asset I likely keep him over Svech. If they are ranked similarly, I likely go with Svech since hes younger and not entering his prime for another 2-3 seasons. Where do you have him ranked? Thoughts?

[niconasr]

I think a lot hinges on where Forsberg winds up. He's a UFA and his landing spot could have his value rise or drop. If he stays in Nashville, I think you can expect a slightly lower pace next year and still bank on him missing a dozen game or so. I think I'd keep Svech over him, but it's close.

If possible, I'd rather wait and see where his next contract lands him before making a decision.

[Axeman33]

Career year in a contract year. Color me shocked.

Personally, I think Dobber's ranking is accurate but if he can repeat the year he just had than maybe he earns more respect and climbs up the list.

[Smurf54]

I have always liked Forsberg, and want to see what he can do in another environment. Having said that, I very much struggle seeing him as a keeper option in a keep 3 league, especially for a team that is in contention.

While I have always thought Forsberg was capable of more than what he produced in the past few years, there are a lot of red flags in his results from this season (beyond the incentive of a contract year). His TOI, PPTOI, SOG/GP, and OZ Start % have remained relatively consistent over the past 4 seasons. Which tells us that his deployment hasn't really changed or improved. And it doesn't appear that he's creating any additional opportunities than in previous years. The additional points seem to come from an increased S% (18.6% vs 12.9% career average) and increased 5 on 5 S% (11.7% vs an average closer to 8.5%). So unless his shooting ability (and that of his linemates) has improved dramatically over the past year, it's unlikely that these results are sustainable. The normalization of his shooting percentage alone brings him from 42 goals down to about 29 (obviously still good, but not great, and more inline with his historical results).

Long story short, I like Forsberg, and think he can be a useful fantasy player. But this is an example of "buyer beware", especially in a keep 3 league. I think it would be a mistake to drop Svechnikov for him, and I am also curious what other keeper options you might have available. And if you can, this would probably be a great time to shop Forsberg to another GM (and waiting to see where he lands in free agency could spike his value even further, if he goes to the right team).

[niconasr]

I have always liked Forsberg, and want to see what he can do in another environment. Having said that, I very much struggle seeing him as a keeper option in a keep 3 league, especially for a team that is in contention.

While I have always thought Forsberg was capable of more than what he produced in the past few years, there are a lot of red flags in his results from this season (beyond the incentive of a contract year). His TOI, PPTOI, SOG/GP, and OZ Start % have remained relatively consistent over the past 4 seasons. Which tells us that his deployment hasn't really changed or improved. And it doesn't appear that he's creating any additional opportunities than in previous years. The additional points seem to come from an increased S% (18.6% vs 12.9% career average) and increased 5 on 5 S% (11.7% vs an average closer to 8.5%). The shooting percentage alone brings him from 42 goals down to about 29 (obviously still good, but not great, and more inline with his historical results).

Long story short, I like Forsberg, and think he can be a useful fantasy player. But this is an example of "buyer beware", especially in a keep 3 league. I think it would be a mistake to drop Svechnikov for him, and I am also curious what other keeper options you might have available. And if you can, this would probably be a great time to shop Forsberg to another GM (and waiting to see where he lands in free agency could spike his value even further, if he goes to the right team).

Yeah, this is pretty much spot on. Nashville has a reputation for rolling out 4 lines and therefore, maybe a change of scenery could help Forsberg to maintain the numbers he put up this year. But expecting anything better is probably risky.

[kovalchuk17]

Long story short, I like Forsberg, and think he can be a useful fantasy player. But this is an example of "buyer beware", especially in a keep 3 league. I think it would be a mistake to drop Svechnikov for him, and I am also curious what other keeper options you might have available. And if you can, this would probably be a great time to shop Forsberg to another GM (and waiting to see where he lands in free agency could spike his value even further, if he goes to the right team).

This part I am working on. discussions have started but i dont want to give up too much either when i already have viable keeper options. It would need to be a slam dunk top-20 player for me to move some picks.

if someone would take forsberg that would simplify my decision as well. keep in mind though, pacing for 50/50 is likely svech's best case scenario. forsberg has already done it so while some regression is expected, hes already done it. he may also move to a team where he'll have better linemates than duchene and granlund/johansen so i havent ruled it out just yet

i didnt have many high picks nor did i trade high picks this season for rentals so that i was in contention hitting on all my picks from 60-120 was pretty remarkable (doughty, kopitar, hintz, forsberg, kuznetsov, dtoews, deangelo + picking up duchene). my opponent had multiple 1st rounders in the draft and traded his 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/6th on rentals. he barely won. it came down to whether forsberg/duchene/granlund could put up 1 single point in the 2nd/3rd period @arizona in the final game of the season AND a stat correction to brent burns where he lost an assist. needless to say i was disappointed to lose but im in a much better position than the other guy to make a run again next season.

[Belexus75]

i also always liked Forsberg....i think this year is his ceiling but i dont think his floor is much lower … consistent 65-75 with some 80s imo. He also provides some nice multicat stats

[Feenom]

I just think Svech will hit those numbers consistently once he decides to breakout. I like Forsberg but I just don't see him repeating those numbers, especially on Nashville. Big stats on a contract year is great for him but like Axe said, shocking...

I like the buyer beware warning and fits accordingly here. But I'm not hesitating one bit on keeping Svech over Forsberg. You should wait and see and in the mean time find a buyer for either him or Svech like you said, that would make it an easier decision for you. Good luck.

[jhonny]

sell, sell, sell.... HIGH! Unfortunately you might find that impossible in a keep 3 offseason. Forsberg has never been a PPG player. This season screams of anomaly (of which I took full advantage via a waiver pickup). Maybe see if there's a GM out there that thinks this is the new look Filip and it's here to stay. Otherwise it comes down to Svech or Berg and I go Svech 100%. The kid is still just 22 (I think it's worth it to wait for a few more chest hairs to grow in before giving up on the potential beast he could become).