Bunting vs. P Kane

[niconasr]

Thanks for the feedback everyone, lots of food for thought but I don’t have to make a decision any time soon so I have time to think about it.

For those that are suggesting Bunting over Buchnevich, I hadn’t really considered that. What’s the main thought there?

I see Buchnevich as a better points producer moving forward vs Bunting and they were about equal in plus/minus. Buchnevich finished the year at 2.72 fantasy points/game, well above Bunting at 2.28

I think Buchnevich is hard to evaluate. He's had a great first year with St-Louis and I think some might think this was a career year.

The fact that Buchnevich finished with 2.72 and Kane with only 2.28 makes me feel like your league might be very particular. Buchnevich had 16 less points and only 14 more PIMs which kind of means +/- has a crazy amount of value in your league. Trying to predict +/- is kind of impossible.

Is +/- worth 1 point or -1 point? Making a +1 player on any given night more valuable than a player with an assist but a -1 rating?

[joeb323]

Buchnevich finished with 199 fantasy points but because he played 73 games it’s 2.72/game to Kane’s 178 fantasy and 2.28/game.

A plus is 1 fantasy point and a minus is -1 fantasy point.

So for a basic example, if you get an assist but still finish -2, your net fantasy points is -1 for the night.

There’s some other stats like shots and power play points to factor in too, but in general a -20 player compared to a 0 +/- player is kinda like the 0 +/- player getting 20 more assists than the minus player. Minuses sting a lot and I’m trying to avoid having a bunch of minus players on my team next year so I don’t get burned by it like I did this year

[2014olympicgold]

Buch could end up +12 next yr and Kane could be -10 and all of a sudden you have 2 similar players.

Don't overthink this. +/- is crazy volatile and Buch could even regress from his career yr in points which then pulls his +/- back and now you made a decision to keep a 60-70pt/82game forward over P.Kane.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Buch could end up +12 next yr and Kane could be -10 and all of a sudden you have 2 similar players.

Don't overthink this. +/- is crazy volatile and Buch could even regress from his career yr in points which then pulls his +/- back and now you made a decision to keep a 60-70pt/82game forward over P.Kane.

This. Make forecasts for predictable stats and volatile ones. Play around and see how the volatile ones affect value... plus/minus can be really inconsistent from year to year so if Bunting's value hinges on plus/minus, that's a damn risky bet.

[stevegamer]

Thanks for the feedback everyone, lots of food for thought but I don’t have to make a decision any time soon so I have time to think about it.

For those that are suggesting Bunting over Buchnevich, I hadn’t really considered that. What’s the main thought there?

For me, it's that Kane is the best player of these 3 guys. He's also on the worst team. I doubt there will be much disagreement with the former, and none with the latter.

Others have suggest you forecast the volatile stats separately, and that's what I'd do.