Finals - Last move (in-depth question)

[Locke]

It's a H2H league counting G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, Hits, Blocks, W, Gaa, Sv%, Saves

I'm up 9-5:

I've got 31 skater games left (maybe 33 if Dunn plays today and Monday), he's got 31. He probably has two extra goalie games on me (Owns Grubby).

I've got the tie-break (best reg season record against opponent; 14-12)

So he's got to at least flip 2 categories and tie another to pull of the W.

To my mind, he's got the best chance to flip SOG, Hits, Blocks, and Saves. G (he's up 20-17) and wins (he's up 7-6) are hard to predict/chase, while A (me), P (me), +/- (opp), PIM (opp), PPP (me), FOW (opp), Gaa (me), and Sv% (me) are likely decided.

I've run the numbers for each of us for the rest of the finals based on average stats over the year for who we've got playing and I'm in decent shape. Expected increases over the rest of the week for those four categories are:

Me: 72.6 sog, 47.1 hits, 26.5 blocks, 108 saves
OPP: 67.3 sog, 40.8 hits, 26.1 blocks, 153 saves.

That puts expected finals end at:

Me: 282 sog, 160 hits, 110 blocks, 430 saves
Opp: 261 sog, 149 hits, 99 blocks 460 saves

And likely end result 8-6 me (Opp flips saves, but nothing else)


We've each got 1 move left. If you made it this far lol, thanks.

Here's the question finally: Should I add somebody like Lowry or Arvidsson (best available players re Sog and hits) that will give me two extra games beginning tonight?

Or should I use the last move on Monday to get one additional game that targets a specific category (IE, Comrie who may play Monday to try to win saves, or a skater to target sog/hits/blocks)

I've got Beniers and maybe Dunn going Monday, He's got Oleksiak and Grubby.

[Eskimo Brother]

I think going with a goalie would be a mistake. If he gets shelled, then not only are you still not winning saves, but you're opening up the door for your opponent to flip gaa and sv% too, possibly handing him the win right there. I know it's not the sexy thing to do, but conceding saves and adding a guy like Lowry (he's actually who I added in another league where SOG and Hits are close) makes a bigger difference, and makes your odds at pulling this out a lot better.
Best of luck!