Hill/Keller vs Samsonov/Gourde

[Bender]

Would you so this trade? I feel like Keller has a ton of potential but he's stuck in Arizona

16 H2H Dynasty
Skaters: G/A/PIM/SOG/PPG/STP/FOW/HTS/BLK
Goalies: W/GAA/SV%/SO

I trade:
Hill
Keller (lw/rw)

I get:
Samsonov
Gourde (c/lw)
two 3rd round picks

[fractalesque]

That does not seem advantageous. Keller has had a at least similar production to Gourde (in terms of 82gp pace) over the last years, and is 7 years younger.

The last years pace for Gourde (starting from 21-22 going backwards) : 55 / 53 / 35 / 49 / 64
The same but for Keller : 65 / 51 / 52 / 47 / 65

Keller has had a overall better pace than Gourde, in the offensive desert that is Arizona.

I do not have profound knowledge of Hill vs Samsonov so maybe I'm missing a huge part here, but none of these goalies are Vasilevsky or Hellebuyck and Samsonov does not sound so much better than Hill to justify that trade. I personnally find that two 3rd-picks is more or less sand in the eyes.

That does not seem to me like a good trade for whomever would trade Keller away, not now, as Keller is outproducing Gourde, neither in the future, as Keller is a somehow proven 55 pts player, which is basically what looks like Gourde's current ceilling.

Hope this helps!

[Bender]

Its certainly a step back from Keller to Gourde. The question would be is that step back covered enough by the upgrade from Hill to Samsonov?

Honestly the more I think about the picks they really aren't worth much. they are third round in a three round prospect draft. Usually i can just wait until after the draft and get third round type talent off of FA.

Might try for Tuch instead of Gourde, see what happens.

[fractalesque]

[...] The question would be is that step back covered enough by the upgrade from Hill to Samsonov? [...]

To help with that type of questions I find that the concept of "goalie tiers" as expressed in this goalie rankings helps. There might be personal differences from the ranking themselves, maybe one would move Samsonov one ranking up, but I find it helps to see comparable goalies, and most importantly think about how hard will it be, come draft day, to get a comparable goaler. If you could draft a goaler in 4th round that would perform comparably to Samsonov, then that would render the trade essentially meaningless.

Interestingly, I hadn't seen the part of your message that says the bit about Tuch, it only appeared in the "reply with quote" citation. I think Tuch is a better future plan than Gourde so maybe that could balance out.

To come clean however, I own Keller and I prefer him over those two others, so maybe I'm not seeing clearly

[Bender]

Tuch was something I just thought of so would be a counter offer. He seems to fill out the stats a little better than Keller in this format which is why I brought it up.

Great idea on the goalie tiers, thanks for the suggestion!

[Bender]

Anyone else have some thoughts