I don't think I'd do this....
But what are your categories.
Hey everyone!
I have a trade possibility where I would trade away Bouchard, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick for Dahlin. I wonder about the picks importance like, first-round picks that are not 1st overall have way more clout than value I find, what do you think?
I'm leaning towards yes, because lists say dahlin has much higher upside and floor, but also he plays in a super bad team, and Bouchard has yet to play a full season but already he shows signs of future production.
It's a keep 10 + 1 recruit (green flags on fantrax) with salary cap. we dress 9 forwards, 4 def and 1 goaler for each week's duels.
Would you trade bouchard for dahlin?
I don't think I'd do this....
But what are your categories.
Oh right, sorry! this is the scoring categories for defs:
goals: 8 pts
assist: 6 pts
gwg: 2 pts
+/-: 1pts
shootout goal: 1pt
shootout gwg: 2pts
I wouldn't do this. Both guys are great assets, but at this point, knowing that Buffalo is a tire fire and that there's a decent route for high-end production in Edmonton, I wouldn't send sizeable assets to make the switch.
I see, thanks. This gives me pause to think more about it. I must say that the upside / 3yp of dobber guides leave little doubt as to which player they consider better (dahlin 78/62 and bouchard 62/43 or something like that) and I'm heavily influenced by these, generally. Pts/60 from both are comparable but dahlin is still producing more with the environment he's in, doesn't he?
Last edited by fractalesque; January 20, 2022 at 1:26 PM. Reason: added actual number in case folks don't know it
12 teams. Keep 9 any position.
7 prospects. D scoring 3.75 for goal, 2.75 for assist. Forwards 3.5 for goal, 2.5 for assist. 0.5 for hits and blocks. Goalie scoring -1.5 GA, 0.3 for save, 2 points for win and extra 2 for shutout.
Pre Draft
F: Keller, Zegras, Suzuki, Caufield, Cozens
D: Drysdale, Guhle, Perunovich
G:
IR:
Prospects: W. Johnston, K. Johnson, Guenther, Morrow, Mateychuk
I'm biased because I have Dahlin, but I would go with Dahlin even in the package you have before you.
Dahlin has accomplished things in his teenage years that only Bobby Orr had before him, and he's shown that as a 19-21 year old, he can put up 55+ points on the worst offensive team in the league.
Sky is the limit for him, including 70+ pt seasons. I'll stand behind that.
As soon as Tippett gets fired (which should have been months ago, could happen any day but probably won't happen at all), Bouchard is going to get a shot on PP1. Once that happens, I would prefer him over Dahlin because if Barrie can lead the NHL in dmen points with that playing time, the sky is the limit for Bouchard.
If you think Tippett is going to finish the season in Edmonton, then the deal makes sense for you. Either way, both Bouchard and Dahlin are going to be great assets over the next 5+ years.
Would both be keepers for you? (I'd assume so, but...). What about for the other guy -- if he's got three other stud D and he's trying to dump Dahlin as a result and keep Bouchard (green check) and still add picks, then you fire back with a lesser offer.
In a keep 10+1 there are going to be great picks in the draft. But it's also a league where securing the best group of ten is key.
I prefer Dahlin to Bouchard straight up, but the picks give me pause.
My leaning is no, but more information needed for sure.
Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
Active roster (no starts, just total points): 12 FW, 6 D, 1 Goalie
Forwards: Kucherov, Barkov, Teravainen, Seguin, Hoffman, Lindholm, Gusev, Horvat, Meier, Perron, Schwartz, Johansen, Pavelski, Buchnevich, Hischier, Granlund, Bracco
Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson
Goal: Lehner, Holtby, Varlamov
Farm: Soderstrom, York, Woo, Tracey, Dorofeyev
I would easily take Dahlin here. He's so far above Bouchard individually it's not even a conversation. I always like siding with individual talent over situation as situation changes a lot during a young player's career.
Update: I made the trade.
I side with the idea that Dahlin just has that much better talent, that he is currently having those very reasonnable numbers (if not excellent) while having very little support. From an (arguably extremely small sample) Bouchard is doing just as well playing with two of the best players in the entire world. Were Dahlin in a better team I think the choice would look obviously on Dahlin's favour.
Hence, I did it. I'm an extraordinarily bad drafter anyway so better someone else make them and I'll try to trade during the season
Thank you very much to all who shared their thoughts about this!
Oh yes, both are keepers! And for my trade partner as well, Bouchard is not a green flag in our current setup. His other defs were deangelo (!), graves, soucy, brannstrom and K'andre Miller. It's not like any of those except Deangelo is better than Bouchard I believe. We are 22 clubs so like 220 keepers. Having Dahlin, at 21, sounds like a great asset to me.
This is really interesting! But I believe it went vastly over my head, I have little knowledge if at all about coaches though. I understand from your message that this Tippett person for some reason does not favour Bouchard on the pp? I realize that PP could paint a very different image of Bouchard potential, and I shall wait and see...
Bouchard moved to PP1 tonight with Barrie missing the game. Bouchard scored 2 PPG and got the Oilers PP back on track from their 1 for the past 11 slide. Hopefully, Tippett realizes that Bouchard is a much better fit on PP1 than both Barrie and Nurse.
Congratulations on acquiring Dahlin. He's a stud!!!
Team 1: Keep 10 + 1 recruit -- skaters: G, A, +/- -- goalers: W, SHL, points
Team 2: Keep 10 + 1 recruit -- skaters: G, A, +/-, GWG, STG, STWG -- goalers: W, Sv, GA, SHL, points
# Team 1
Center - Dvorak, McCann, Blackwell, Hayton, Lundestrom, Ryan Suzuki (r), Ty Dellandrea (r), Jakob Pelletier (r)
Winger - Keller, Ovechkin, Tatar, Svechnikov, Wheeler, Mantha
Defense - Fox, Deangelo, Girard, Jokiharju, Brodin
# Team 2
Center - Nelson, O'Reilly, Tavares, Hintz, Seguin, Borgstrom, Mavrik Bourque (r)
Winger - Fiala, Tatar, Arvidsson, Yamamoto, Coronato (r), Poulin (r), Evgeny Svechnikov
Defense - Dahlin, Krug, Letang, Fehervary, Thomas Harley (r)
Damn I thought I posted my response a while ago but I guess not.. I was originally curious how many teams were in your pool as I couldn't really evaluate the trade with a 1st and 3rd without knowing 10+1 keeps X ???? (Amount of teams) - to see what type of players you are potentially giving up with those picks. And what position are you currently in? How high might that 1st be? What's your cap situation like? But I see your later post has answered my first question: 22 teams: so 220 top players gone before each draft makes these picks a bit less valuable to me.
That type of information would be very helpful in originally analyzing this trade. Also, you're underrating Bouchard if you think he's just a product of his team. He has had an 87-point OHL season (25 goals) while leading that team in scoring by 33 points (only two other defensemen have had that type of junior season in the last 20 years - Ryan Ellis and Tony Deangelo). So, he’s always been seen as a very high point producing defenseman and he landed on a team with an insane top powerplay unit. He's a great playmaker with an amazing ability to transition through good outlet passing and has a great wrister + a bomb of a slapper. He distributes the puck very well playing at the top of the pp. He isn't as dynamic as Dahlin and doesn't skate as well (although he's taken leaps in this regard) but talking about him like he's totally outclassed by Dahlin is just silly. He's also 1.5 mil aav and even less if you use cap hit for this season and next. That's good for 21st overall cost per point this season - without any pp1 time.
If you're not confident in your drafting then I'm sure the trade will work out for you as I like Dahlin's upside and I think Buffalo has a bright future if the young players stick around, and 6 mil x 3 years is a respectable contract for his talent level. But if I, were you, I'd probably start looking back on drafts and seeing how you might improve in that area instead of selling picks (I saw the Robertson vs. Turcotte post) so obviously you have the ability to make good picks. Looking at what players went after your picks and asking yourself which players would have been great picks for you, and why you might have missed those players? I'm sure you'll discover some more patterns which might help your overall fantasy success. Drafting is nearly everything in a keep 10.
I do think Buffalo will turn things around and Dahlin is a nice player to have in a keep 10, but I think Bouchard is being a bit underrated here and could be a big time contributor in your format as he will score a lot of goals in his career, imo.
Anyways, long story short, I like Bouchard at his price tag in a cap league and if Tippett finally figures out what he has in Bouchard, he should score a ton of points. But I think the trade is fine overall if you prefer Dahlin and can afford the 5 million dollar premium right now. 1st overalls are always nice to gamble on :P, look at Ekblad flying now.
Weekly H2H, Points Only, Keeper League - 10 team - Keep 14 (+ 2 rookies, under 25 GP) - dress 12 F, 6 D, 2 G (Wins: 2 pts, OTL: 1 pt, SO: 1 pt) - 30 Roster max w/ 1 IR spot which opens up one roster spot.
FW: Aho, Eichel, Draisatl, Rantanen, Marchand, Matthews, Kyrou, J. Robertson, Bergeron, Duchene, Boldy, Toffoli, Kempe, Krejci, Schmaltz
D: Rielly, Heiskenen, Dobson, Drysdale, Byram, Nurse, Weegar, Matheson, Clarke
G: Andersen, Georgiev, Francouz, Kotchetkov, Wallstedt
Dahlin scored 44 points in 82 games as a rookie bud. Not 55.
Perhaps he could have hit 55 the next year if not missing time. Perhaps he would have lost his confidence and gone cold like he did under Krueger. We will never know.
And they were not the worst offensive team in the league. Eichel scored 82 points in 77 games, Skinner scored 40 goals, Reinhart had 55 points. they were tied for 23rd out of 31 teams. not good. Top heavy, but better than Anaheim, Arizona or LA that year
And lots have done better. Larry Murphy scored over 70 his rookie year. Playing for those 80s kings every said sucked until his rookie year lol