Trading for Dahlin : Need your advice

[Pashowretty]

What's going on folks! I could really use your advice on this trade that I'm about to make.

I'm in a 11-team points-only keep-11 keeper league (details in sig), rebuilding and currently last. The guy who is 2nd in my league is trying to make a push for the win and wants my Malkin & Kadri. In return, I'm asking for his first-round pick and Rasmus Dahlin. Since we have to respect each positions in a trade to finish with the same number of players at each position, the whole trade would look like this :

Malkin + Kadri + Provorov + a pick (that we haven't yet determined) VS Atkinson + Garland + Dahlin + 1st.

In my league, the last 3 teams participate in a playoff pool during the NHL playoffs. The winner gets the first overall pick. Assuming I'm trading Malkin and Kadri, I'm basically destroying my chances at the first overall and would probably end up with the second overall. Barring a miracle. Of course, he's not sure he wants to let go of Dahlin, but for me, that's a deal breaker. If I'm not a getting a piece that I can actually build on for the future in this deal, I'm just better off trying to fight for the first overall pick in my league.

So what do you think? Is this a good trade for me? Am I asking too much/not enough? What do you think of Dahlin's offensive output in the future? I'm going to add his team here so you can evaluate other trade proposals I could make. As always, appreciate the help folks.

F : Draisaitl, Huberdeau, W. Nylander, Zuccarello, Kuznetsov, Duchene, Reinhart, Kopitar, Giroux, Marchessault, Atkinson, Garland
D : Theodore, Burns, Dahlin, Spurgeon, Suter, Schultz
G : Bobrovsky, Talbot
Bench : Trocheck, Monahan

[senryu]

Tell us if the pieces don't otherwise work, but why are you receiving Atkinson? 32 1/2 years old and he's not part of any rebuilding effort. It seems likely the other owner is assigning some value to him, which is requiring you to give up more than you normally would for what you truly want in Dahlin. Is Atkinson someone you can trade?

The idea of sending Malkin away is the right move. Frankly, Kadri being 4th in points makes me wonder if you can get a better deal for him than Dahlin. Have you shopped Kadri at all? He seems like the kind of asset where other people would be frustrated if they knew that he had been up for trade and never got a chance to bid.

For the trade mentioned, is Garland a keeper for you? It doesn't appear to be. I'd want to take Provorov out and put Pulock in there.

[Gretzky99Orr4]

I'd want more than that for Malkin and Kadri. Maybe one of them for Dahlin and a 1st.

[Pashowretty]

Tell us if the pieces don't otherwise work, but why are you receiving Atkinson? 32 1/2 years old and he's not part of any rebuilding effort. It seems likely the other owner is assigning some value to him, which is requiring you to give up more than you normally would for what you truly want in Dahlin. Is Atkinson someone you can trade?

With Atkinson and Garland, I'm just taking his two worst forwards off his hands. I'm not going to protect either of them and he's not going to protect them. But since we need to respect the positions in a trade, I need to get two forwards back. For example if I trade a forward + a d-man + a goalie, I need to get a forward, a d-man and a goalie back in the trade. So basically, Atkinson and Garland are just fillers here. The real pieces that have value for both of us are Malkin, Kadri, Dahlin and his first round pick.

Of course, I could ask for, say, Dahlin, Reinhart, Atkinson and a first, but he's not going to give up Reinhart, since he needs him if he wants to win this year and he probably wants to protect him at the end of the year. Does that make any sense?

The idea of sending Malkin away is the right move. Frankly, Kadri being 4th in points makes me wonder if you can get a better deal for him than Dahlin. Have you shopped Kadri at all? He seems like the kind of asset where other people would be frustrated if they knew that he had been up for trade and never got a chance to bid.

Yeah, I've thought about trading them in two separate trades, but there's only two teams competing for the title this year in my league, so in other words, not a lot of buyers. The other one, who is first, has already traded a lot of his assets and doesn't want to move again. I would try to move Kadri to another team, but who's going to want him without a shot at the title? Nobody in my league is going to protect him for next year knowing that he's not going to have another season like this... So I know I'm giving up a lot in the trade, but I will probably lose Malkin and Kadri for nothing at the end of the year if I release them... Currently, my protected roster would look like this : Kaprizov, Lafrenière, Necas, Stützle, Boeser, Larkin, Raymond, Chabot, Seider, Dahlin, Chychrun. My thinking is I'm better off with Dahlin and a first round-pick than losing Malkin and Kadri for nothing. Plus, Chabot, Seider, Dahlin and Chychrun (assuming he's traded) are good pieces to build on on defence.

For the trade mentioned, is Garland a keeper for you? It doesn't appear to be. I'd want to take Provorov out and put Pulock in there.

I wish, but Pulock is injured right now, and he's not going to want an injured player to push for the win this year...

Sorry, heavy rep I'm just trying to give you guys as much information as I can... Hope it helps you understand better.

[senryu]

Your description is very helpful. It tells the market, and it appears that the market is limited to one owner. That changes the analysis.

My only additional thought would be to try to send Kadri to the 3rd place team, who may not win, but you could argue that having Kadri could be very helpful for next year's push. Sell on the idea of bolstering the team for the near future, as opposed to perhaps waiting for the third team's younger prospects (?) to turn into something.

Before the year, I probably would have jumped at the chance to turn Malkin and Kadri for Dahlin in a keep eleven. Kadri's astronomical performance is the only thing that changes the thought.

Might you try getting Theodore in there as well instead of the pick? (Monahan, Garland, Dahlin and Theodore for Malkin, Kadri, Provorov and Ekholm?)

[als_revenge]

When you trade, do the previous points get traded as well, or just future points?

Based on everything you've laid out, I'm ok with the trade. But I do worry you are overly focused on youth and will stay stuck there.

I think it'll be a long time before you win because you have Laffy, in points only.

[stevegamer]

You gave us a lot of info, which is good. I have a couple thoughts:

1. I really don't care much about the difference in picking first or second. We're pretty sure that we don't know if the guy who goes first or second in your draft will be the better player, just like the real NHL draft.

2. I think that Garland could very well be a keeper for you. I'd keep him over Caulfied and maybe Lafreniere at this point. I'd look to deal one of those latter two if this goes through, preferably Caulfield.

I'd be willing to do the deal if you get what you are saying, but if you need a little more, ask for a small pick upgrade.

[Pashowretty]

When you trade, do the previous points get traded as well, or just future points?

Based on everything you've laid out, I'm ok with the trade. But I do worry you are overly focused on youth and will stay stuck there.

I think it'll be a long time before you win because you have Laffy, in points only.

Just future points count.

And yes, I gotta say that I'm a little worried that I'm not going to win before long... My plan was to load up on 24 years old or younger players and let them develop into this young and strong core that would make me the next powerhouse in my league, but like they say, "you plan. God laughs."

Laffy is a complete disaster. The Sens are a mess and there's just no supporting cast outside of the first line for Stützle. Hart plays for the Flyers who are a train-wreck and will probably rebuild the whole team come summer. Boeser is doing next to nothing. The few bright spots of my team are Kaprizov, Raymond and Seider, and yet, the sample is small for the last two.

But honestly, at this point, I don't know if there's another option than waiting and suffering in silence until someone pans out. Of course, I could trade Caufield, Lafrenière and Stützle for second or third-tier players that will make me better in the short term, but it's not going to be enough to push me over the top. No one is going to give me a top-tier player for those struggling youngsters.

When I look around my league, the guys who have drafted the MacKinnon, Huberdeau, Barkov, Heiskanen, etc all waited 2-3, sometimes 4 years for them to become the beasts that they are. Some got lucky and drafted players the season they became stars. I just don't know if there's another solution than taking the long road on this...