The Tkachuk's Upsides?

[silkysmooth]

With Brady just signed for a hair over 8M long-term, and Matthew's contract up this offseason, I'm curious to hear what you think their respective "realistic" upsides are that you think they will peak at?

Matthew has proven a lot already, and he seems destined to settle in as around an 80 point player. Agree/disagree?

Brady is interesting. He is younger and has proven less, but some advanced stats like high danger scoring chances etc seem to suggest he is among the league's best--and could be a ppg guy too. What are your thoughts on him?

[bbfl1987]

I think Matt will be in the 70-80 range most years. Brady 65-70.

[Swarley]

I agree that Matt is around 75-80 pts and see Brady around 70 pts

[rangerdanger]

I rate Matty ahead of Brady in most setups. Brady definitely destroys everyone in HIT/PIM category, but I don't quite think he has the offensive potential of Matt.

Matt, while also providing HIT/PIM, just to a lesser extent than Brady, I think has genuine PPG potential. Meaning I would put Matty somewhere near the range of a guy like Svechnikov.

While I would rate Brady a bit lower. While I think Matt can be a PPG type player with HIT/PIM, I am not sure if Brady will really be more than a 60 point player in his peak. Which, given his HIT/PIM numbers is still amazing in banger leagues. But overall I would rather have Matt. Really, I think Matt and Svechnikov are very close in their career trajectories and eventual production.

While Brady might be a bit more similar to Evander Kane, production wise. All though Brady will probably rack up even more hits than Kane has, which is a feat in itself. I kind of look at Brady in terms of HITs kind of like I view Horvat/ROR in regard to FW. While I do think Brady will be a bit more offensively productive than Horvat/ROR, both can almost single-handedly win you their peripheral cat, HIT for Brady, FW for Horvat/ROR. All though FW are a bit easier to come by than HIT, and I think Brady might put up 10-15 points more than Horvat/ROR per season, so I still value Brady higher than Horvat.

ROR did have that one crazy season where he scored way beyond his means, putting up 77 points. I just think that season was something of an outlier for him. Well, it's definitely an outlier when compared to the rather substantial sample size of his career. And Brady might do something similar. Have one or two 70+ point seasons while getting his usual peripherals. Just not sure if he can do it year to year.

Honestly, this will be a bit heterodox I am sure, but in terms of Sens players, I kind of prefer Batherson. Sure, he won't get Brady's insane hit level, but he still will provide a substantial amount of hits with I think a fairly higher point output. At least, that is how Batherson is producing this season so far. And I would probably put Batherson right below Svech and Matty in terms of players who provide both HIT and scoring. I think Bath can be a legit PPG player. And then, Sens still have Stutzle, who I think can eventually be a PPG LW as well. And since Batherson and Norris can handle the physical side, I ultimately think Sens first line will be Stutzle - Norris - Batherson, relegating Brady to being the physical, 200 foot player for the 2nd line. At least that is probably how I would arrange them on that team.

[YzermansLegacy]

Realize I'm in the minority here... but I think Brady will outproduce Matt on average during their peaks. And I can see Matt hitting 80 during that time... so I suppose that speaks to how highly I value Brady in 2-3 years from now.

Matt is great - so none of this is a knock on him at all - but if you give Brady a couple more years of development, then stick a Johnny Hockey-level talent on his line... I think he'd be matching Matt easily. (Actually even this season, if you look at per game averages, Brady is pacing higher in Pts. Also consider that Matt has 8ppp on the season so far... and Brady has zero.)

Toss in what I expect (ok it's Ottawa so 'hope' is the better word to use here) to happen in 2-3 years as they move on from their current D and start replacing them with Sanderson, Brannstrom, Thomson, JBD, Kleven, etc... I think we start to see a MUCH higher GPG from the team in general, of which I'd expect Brady will get his share.

Weirdly, I think Brady has been undervalued for points because he's such a beast in PIM/HIT/SOG leagues. Give him another 1-2 years and I think those peripherals drop (a bit) while his Pts actually rise.

At the end of the day though, in a multi-cat I'd be thrilled to have either Tkachuk on my squad!