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Thread: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

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    Unhappy Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    I happen to be the only GM in our 1-year H2H league, who is running 3 stable goalies (Hellebuyck, Talbot and Lehner).
    Other GMs have 2 or even only 1 permanent goalie and use 5 allowed FA pickups per week to fill the goalie slots accordingly.

    After big analysis I came to conclusion, that I need to trade one of my goalies. Details of analysis in different thread.

    Main reasons

    1. I am losing 2-3 skater categories by close margin every week.
    2. And not crushing the goalie categories with those 3 goalies anyway.
    3. We have 9 skaters cats and only 3 goalie cats where Wins are only real volume cat. SV% is not volume cat and Shutouts are semi random stat.
    4. I am now 11/12 in our league. I cant stand pat with 3 goalies to see what future brings. I have to act now.
    5. I will better use the extra slot for skater.
    6. With the goalie trade, I will try to upgrade my forwards. Either 2for1 or 1for1 trade.
    7. We have 5 free pick ups per week. I will use the timed pick ups when the schedule / opponent is good to improve goalie cats.
    8. Possible injury - I think I can fix the injured goalie with an IR slots and/or free pick ups/trade. Yeah, I am little gambling here.


    Please help me to choose, which goalie should go.

    These goalies have similar stats for this season (table below). Here is the FrozenPool comparison report.
    They are clear starters (Maybe except Talbot - see the notes column). They play in strong teams.

    Is this a coin flip to choose? Because I simple cant make up my mind.
    I welcome your insights and estimation how their season will go and what to consider/look for.


    Attributes I am considering

    1. How their teams will go ROS (mainly Wins and Defence - lowest shots allowed). Right now PowerRankins standings are: 7.Minnesota, 13.Winnipeg, 16.Vegas . Wild will keep roling, great chemistry there. Vegas should be improving (key players coming from injuries - Stone, Pacioretty already did. Karlsson coming maybe today, Martinez in 1-2 weeks . Eichel in 1-2 months.) Winnipeg is coming from a slump.
    2. How many starts the goalies will get. I think Hellebuyck and Lehner are clear starters. Talbot currently is a starter (75% starts) but I smell the change. Last season they splitted the games 33/23 ( 59% vs 41%) in favour of Talbot.
    3. How many games they play in fantasy playoff weeks (from 4th of April 2022). Minnesota 14 (3-4-7), Winnipeg 12 (3-4-5), Vegas 12 (3-3-6)
    4. Off nights schedule during season: Minnesota is a winner from my fast research.
    5. Did I miss something important to look for?


    Season stats
    ( todays matches not counted vs Toronto and vs Calgary)

    goalie starts
    SV%
    Shots against GAA Wins
    Loss OTL Shutouts
    ____________________notes___________________
    Hellebuyck 18/24 - 75%
    0.916
    560 2.68 8
    6 4 0
    he started the season bad, then turned god mode. Unfortunatelly after loss with Edmonton after shootout, the Winnipeg were slumping heavily. Only bad start was against Minnesota (4 goals in 1st period).
    Talbot 18/24 - 75%
    0.915
    576 2.71 13
    5 0 0
    He got the most wins now and the Wild are on hot-run. But the backup goalie Kahkonen played good 2 times in a row. I think the coach will play Kahkonen more (posted question in Minnesota thread).
    Lehner 18/24 - 75%
    0.909
    594 3.08 9
    9 0 0
    he is keeping injured Vegas above the water. Stats says Vegas has poor defence (lot of shots against), but everybody says the Vegas will turn around as the key players come back. Lehner thread here.

    P.S.: Some fun at the end of the post: I plan to pick up Francouz as stream goalie. So I will have 4 goalies, hopefully not long.
    League: H2H, 1 year, 12 teams, no keepers, 5 FA pick-ups / week, unlimited trades.
    Categories: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocks, Wins, SV%, SHO
    Positions: 2xC, 2xLW, 2xRW, 4xD, 2xG, 4xBN, IR, IR+

    Drop Batherson or other skater to stream into playoffs?

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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    In a keeper league I would eject Talbot but this is a 1 year.

    Moving forward I like Lehner's chances the most. Now that MaxPac, Stone are back. Losing your top 2 forwards is a tad detrimental. AND Eichel may be with them in 3 months.

    Hellebuyck is easily the most talented. his team plays like crap though and will until Maurice is fired. But he should command a hefty price regardless.
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    I think Lehner or Hellebuyck will fetch the most in trade, and you want a return that helps you with skaters.

    However, dealing Talbot for a lesser player which also helps you is fine. If you get no solid offers, Talbot is the drop.
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I think Lehner or Hellebuyck will fetch the most in trade, and you want a return that helps you with skaters.

    However, dealing Talbot for a lesser player which also helps you is fine. If you get no solid offers, Talbot is the drop.
    I like Hellebuyck the best, followed by Lehner then a bit down to Talbot.

    I would shop Talbot and see what you can shake free. If you can get a nice haul for either Helly or Lehner it would obviously be worth considering as well.
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    Shop Helley for maximum return because the other two will do just fine and you can stream a third as needed. I think Helley gets you the best skater 1 for 1 here no question!
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    The obvious answer is to trade the one that will get you the best return. All 3 goalies are going to put up similar stats for the rest of this season.

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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    Thank you for your opinions. That's 3 votes for trade Talbot, 1 for trade Helley.
    Seems everybody likes Lehner (btw big Lehner sucks thread here ) , even he has worst SV% actually. Any other opinions?

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    The obvious answer is to trade the one that will get you the best return. All 3 goalies are going to put up similar stats for the rest of this season.
    nice idea. I will try to offer all my goalies in our leagues's chat.

    However, yesterdays was the Vegas - Minnesota match, where my 2 goalies were showcased and both went crap.
    So I am very curious if I get any serious offers at all.

    Btw, notable free agents in our league currently: Reimer, Quick, Merzlikins, BlackWood, Holtby, Oetinger, Vanecek, Ullmark, Francouz, Smith, Rask.

    This makes a goalie trade very difficult.

    There is even a different question: Should I pickup one of those FAs? Will it be a straight upgrade over one of my current goalie?
    League: H2H, 1 year, 12 teams, no keepers, 5 FA pick-ups / week, unlimited trades.
    Categories: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocks, Wins, SV%, SHO
    Positions: 2xC, 2xLW, 2xRW, 4xD, 2xG, 4xBN, IR, IR+

    Drop Batherson or other skater to stream into playoffs?

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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    About Ullmark, from today’s goaliepost.com

    Linus Ullmark has been tremendous lately for the Boston Bruins. That's great news if you have Ullmark, but maybe not so much if you're stashing Tuukka Rask. Ullmark has a .941 save percentage and four wins in his past five outings, perhaps quieting the cries to sign Rask. The Bruins were getting very mediocre goaltending from Ullmark and Swayman earlier in the year, which made bringing back Rask a no-brainer. While it's still likely to happen, the urgency to get it done doesn't seem as great as it once was.

    It would probably make sense for cap purposes for the Bruins to wait as long as they can to sign him anyway, but that could cause a significant issue if you're stashing Rask. Until he signs, Rask likely will have an NA designation in most leagues, meaning if you're holding him, he's essentially occupying a precious roster spot without any production. When he signs, he'll likely move to IR, so then you can add a player to replace him. You'll have to decide how long you can reasonably hold onto him without hurting your team too much in the meantime.
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    First off, solid post! All the important deets are there to help make a good choice. +1

    I think Hellebuyck on name alone "should" get you the best return and Lehner's numbers will probably get your the least. That doesn't mean I think he's the worst goalie, I just think his value is lessened right now.

    If it's me, I am shopping Hellebuyck and Talbot and see which one gets you the best return. It will be interesting to see what type of offers you receive and if you get anything offered to you that tempts you to pull the trigger to improve your roster.
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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    XMAS break and COVID plague stopped the NHL and the trades. Every fantasy GM has 5-7 players injured because of COVID.

    I am delighted that Rick Roos (rizzeedizzee here at forums) included this thread in his blog article (Topic 2).
    He suggests to offer all 3 goalies or Lehner exclusively.
    However Lehner is currently injured.

    Talbot just had a lousy Winter Classic performance and have 4 straight loses.
    Minnesota has 3 key players injured (Ek, Spurgeon, Brodin), I am afraid the Wild will be average team for atleast next month.
    EDIT: Talbot was pulled because of lower body injury :-(

    My only goaltender with instant value is Hellebuyck. But I have to wait for Lehner's and Talbot's update.
    So I am standing put with my 3 goalies for now :-/

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    Default Re: Hellebuyck Talbot Lehner ROS ? I need to trade one now

    So this story continued like this:


    1. I simply dropped injured Talbot right after Kahkonen posted 2 quality starts against Boston and Washington. I realised Kahkonen will get more starts after that ( We will see, Talbot is backup today).
    2. Talbot was picked up by OGM who had free IR slot (My slots were full).
    3. Dropping Talbot was easy, because in my league goalies arent valuable (means hard to trade) and there was Sorokin free at waiwers.
    4. I picked Sorokin because of his good season and good Islanders schedule.
    5. So I was again with 3 goalies and my problem/dilemma was back.
    6. My 3 goalies didnt have many overlapping days in schedule, so I was fine some days, to figure this out.
    7. Today I managed to trade Lehner for E.Lindholm (buy low). Calgary will play many games next month and Vegas not (and most of those games arent favourable: @Washington, @Carolina, @Florida, @Tampa, @Edmonton, @Calgary, Colorado)
    8. So I have now Hellebuyck and Sorokin.
    9. Will watch for waiwer wire for timely goalie pickups, when in need for a goalie start.


    Thanks all for usefull thoughts and advices.

    If you got a little time, please check and comment my overall roster. Thread link in signature.
    League: H2H, 1 year, 12 teams, no keepers, 5 FA pick-ups / week, unlimited trades.
    Categories: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocks, Wins, SV%, SHO
    Positions: 2xC, 2xLW, 2xRW, 4xD, 2xG, 4xBN, IR, IR+

    Drop Batherson or other skater to stream into playoffs?

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