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Thread: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

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    Default The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Points only...

    Erik Karlsson has 5 points through 3 games.... Could be this be a return of a giant??

    He's on the wire... I have limited moves on the year, 10 all season. And no bench/IR so I'd only wanna act if wise...

    Debating dropping Ekholm for him.. Ekholm gets waaay more regular strength time, but NSH is struggling to score.

    Ekholm is firmly on pp2, where Erik is firmly on pp1...

    Wondering whether Erik is worth the switch... ((Ghost and Yandle also available but I'd lean Erik I think right now if this production won't be a mirage...)

    (And I'm leaning to keep Deangelo right now. To save moves for one thing, but also because I think he'll continue to be given plenty of opportunity on the pp1.)

    (Do people believe in Ekholm? I think I always find him pretty uninspiring...)
    F: McDavid, Kucherov, Eichel, Gaudreau, M Tkachuk, E Lindholm, Rob Thomas, Hischier
    D: S Jones, Werenski, DeAngelo, Hamilton
    G: Husso, Raanta


    *** ONE YEAR - POINTS ONLY *** skaters: 1pt/G, 1pt/A. goalies: 2pt/win, 2pt/SO *** 12 teams
    MUST HAVE -- 8F, 4D, 2G --- (******Can only swap at same position, F, D, G ********)
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Bit of a tough call, but I think you should take the leap of faith and go for it!
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    This is a tough call with only 10 moves. I hesitate a bit because it's early and I don't know how much people expected of EK this year. And, can he stay healthy? If he gets hurt you might end up burning another move replacing him. Ekholm is always tough to predict year to year. He has some boom or bust potential, with obviously less boom than EK. It would be an improvement for your team today, but it's got risks over the full season.

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    That's a really great point that my exuberance hadn't really weighed strongly enough. He's healthy now... but can he stay healthy... ?

    With limited moves, it could be wise to play it slow and steady.

    Ekholm not an exciting pick... but usually a safe-ish bet for 0.5 ppg
    F: McDavid, Kucherov, Eichel, Gaudreau, M Tkachuk, E Lindholm, Rob Thomas, Hischier
    D: S Jones, Werenski, DeAngelo, Hamilton
    G: Husso, Raanta


    *** ONE YEAR - POINTS ONLY *** skaters: 1pt/G, 1pt/A. goalies: 2pt/win, 2pt/SO *** 12 teams
    MUST HAVE -- 8F, 4D, 2G --- (******Can only swap at same position, F, D, G ********)
    10 ACQUISITIONS TOTAL ON THE YEAR (**I've used NINE of them - ONE LEFT**) *** NO BENCH - NO IR - NO TRADES BETWEEN MEMBERS ***

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Very interesting format - I’d loathe playing in a league like this (no trades!!??!), but it’s interesting from a strategy perspective.

    To me it’s simple - your league places a massive premium on guys who are workhorses and never get injured - I’ll bet the team that wins is most often the team that had fewest man games lost to injury and who kept add spots until the end in case of injury.

    So preserving those 10 adds, with no IR, is vital. Unless your starting roster is weak, any move that does not involve replacing an injured player has to REALLY move the needle.

    The only other point I’d add is that workhorse starter goalies in your league are valuable - a 35W / 5 SO goalie is an 80-point player. Not as valuable as high end forwards, but more valuable than D for sure. Even a 1A guy who puts up 25W is worth more than most D.

    So in your league it’s F and G top priority to preserve add spots, in that order, then D.

    Now to your team makeup.

    Very strong at F with high end guys, most of whom are not injury-prone (Boeser exception).

    At G, strong imo - Andersen 1A in front of injury prone Raanta on great team, Binnington has no threat and is on a solid team - you are solid but definitely preserve add spots to nab a replacement starter in case of injury to Andersen especially.

    At D, for a points only and with about 50 Dmen in play, I’d say you’re solid but not super high end. Jones and Werenski should be good for 50+, Ekholm 35+, and DeAngelo the wild card but I think 50+ is a lock given his utilization. And you have a chance to have three 60+ guys. To me Ekholm is a weak link - he is NOT a keeper in a 4D keeper points only setting, so many options better than him - but he is durable which makes a big difference. I’d easily take Yandle over him (durable as all hell and getting solid PP1 time, that’s why he was brought in, and ironman streak means he’ll always play). EK will have a great year i think, but it won’t be 70+, or imo even 60+, I think 50-60 is reasonable, and there’s still a good chance he comes in closer to 40-45 despite the fast start. But the injury risk seals it for me. If you want to replace Ekholm, your weakest link, I’d do it with Yandle not EK.

    But does Yandle move the needle enough to swap and use a spot? Perhaps, it’s potentially 20-25 points more. But I’d say no given premium on injury - and you need to preserve spots in case forwards go down, bc when that happens we’re talking way more than a 20 point swing especially with long term injury. And you already have Boeser who ALWAYS misses time.

    So I’d stand pat.

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    EK is on his last legs imo...he has so much talent that he can still produce in bunches but i dont think he will be durable and physically fit enough to make this consistent for new few years....could he challenge 50-60 this year? sure, i think he can but dont expect dominating D for next 3-4 years again...
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    RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
    D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
    G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    I would say jump on it. Yes, he's been injured for a few years and it's affected the number of games played. But, and this is the big thing for me, he has confidence in himself. He declared that he feels he's still one of the best hockey players in the world. And he's off to a hot start. What happens if he gets another 5 points in the next 5 games? Someone will nab him. I took him in the fifth round of our 10 round draft this year. To me, he's worth the risk. There's maybe 5 D who have the potential to get 60+ in a season. He's one of them.
    Head to Head League: 1 point for G, 1 point for A. 2 for Goalie win, 3 for SO.
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    F: Crosby, Point, P. Kane, JVR, Kopitar, Rakell, Tarasenko,
    D: Letang, Doughty, Karlsson, Grzelcyk, Faulk,
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    You've got a good team overall. In a one year format, points only, I'd roll the dice on Karlsson over Ekholm, no questions asked. I don't think Ekholm moves the needle much in your format (his career high is 44pts, and that was 3 years ago...). And last year was the worst year of Karlsson's career, and his scoring pace still basically matched Ekholm's career average. And San Jose seems to be playing better as a group so far, which if it continues, will have a huge impact on Karlsson. It's possible Karlsson gets hurt or doesn't pan out, but if it does work, a move like this could win you the season. Ekholm won't.
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    I'm in the same exact format as your league, except we only get 5 drops. I picked Karlsson in round 14 of my draft. He's not old, he's healthy right now, he's up with the best of the best in terms of offensive talent from the back end.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year. ***NO BENCH, NO IR, SWAP D for D, F for F, G for G ONLY***
    F: P Kane, Wheeler, Kucherov, Malkin, Batherson, Crosby, Eichel, Point
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Ullmark


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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Karlsson’s floor and Ekholm’s ceiling are a similar number. This is the kind of move that can win your league. Swing for the fence here and take Karlsson then hope/pray that his ankle/foot has healed.
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    No question id make that move (Ekholm for Karlsson) even with your limited moved the upside of Karlsson is worth the risk.
    If it doesn't work out i dont think Karlsson is that much worse than Ekholm

    Yandle is also an option as well but he lives and dies off that pp1 and has other D men that could take his spot

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Depends on what you are expecting from Karlsson and what is valuable production in your league.

    It could be a bit of a resurgence, but there are red flags everywhere. https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/.../Erik-Karlsson

    His shooting percentage is 20%, his pts per 60 as a result are 250% higher than his peak years, his individual points percentage is 83% (33% higher than his best years) and hes been in on 100% of the PP points.
    In case you even need more alarming stats, hits SOG/60 this year are at a career low and even down from last year (though, small sample size) and so far he's only at 35% of PP time (historically he's had 60%+ of PP time).

    If 45-50 pts is valuable, then grab him, as he has a decent chance of getting that. But I wouldn't expect more, and the floor is lower than that.

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Quote Originally Posted by silkysmooth View Post
    Depends on what you are expecting from Karlsson and what is valuable production in your league.

    It could be a bit of a resurgence, but there are red flags everywhere. https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/.../Erik-Karlsson

    His shooting percentage is 20%, his pts per 60 as a result are 250% higher than his peak years, his individual points percentage is 83% (33% higher than his best years) and hes been in on 100% of the PP points.
    In case you even need more alarming stats, hits SOG/60 this year are at a career low and even down from last year (though, small sample size) and so far he's only at 35% of PP time (historically he's had 60%+ of PP time).

    If 45-50 pts is valuable, then grab him, as he has a decent chance of getting that. But I wouldn't expect more, and the floor is lower than that.
    This is an excellent post.
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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    Quote Originally Posted by ross10019 View Post
    Very interesting format - I’d loathe playing in a league like this (no trades!!??!), but it’s interesting from a strategy perspective.

    To me it’s simple - your league places a massive premium on guys who are workhorses and never get injured - I’ll bet the team that wins is most often the team that had fewest man games lost to injury and who kept add spots until the end in case of injury.

    So preserving those 10 adds, with no IR, is vital. Unless your starting roster is weak, any move that does not involve replacing an injured player has to REALLY move the needle.

    The only other point I’d add is that workhorse starter goalies in your league are valuable - a 35W / 5 SO goalie is an 80-point player. Not as valuable as high end forwards, but more valuable than D for sure. Even a 1A guy who puts up 25W is worth more than most D.

    So in your league it’s F and G top priority to preserve add spots, in that order, then D.

    Now to your team makeup.

    Very strong at F with high end guys, most of whom are not injury-prone (Boeser exception).

    At G, strong imo - Andersen 1A in front of injury prone Raanta on great team, Binnington has no threat and is on a solid team - you are solid but definitely preserve add spots to nab a replacement starter in case of injury to Andersen especially.

    At D, for a points only and with about 50 Dmen in play, I’d say you’re solid but not super high end. Jones and Werenski should be good for 50+, Ekholm 35+, and DeAngelo the wild card but I think 50+ is a lock given his utilization. And you have a chance to have three 60+ guys. To me Ekholm is a weak link - he is NOT a keeper in a 4D keeper points only setting, so many options better than him - but he is durable which makes a big difference. I’d easily take Yandle over him (durable as all hell and getting solid PP1 time, that’s why he was brought in, and ironman streak means he’ll always play). EK will have a great year i think, but it won’t be 70+, or imo even 60+, I think 50-60 is reasonable, and there’s still a good chance he comes in closer to 40-45 despite the fast start. But the injury risk seals it for me. If you want to replace Ekholm, your weakest link, I’d do it with Yandle not EK.

    But does Yandle move the needle enough to swap and use a spot? Perhaps, it’s potentially 20-25 points more. But I’d say no given premium on injury - and you need to preserve spots in case forwards go down, bc when that happens we’re talking way more than a 20 point swing especially with long term injury. And you already have Boeser who ALWAYS misses time.

    So I’d stand pat.
    Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmmnnnnnnnnnnnnnn...

    This is the single best response to a post I've ever gotten here. Wow. Thanks ross. (!!!!)

    Everybody's responses have been freakin great... DOBBERHOCKEY COMMUNITY IS THE SHIT

    It's definitely a pretty unique format, ross (unless you're aerofoil apparently! ... we used to have 5 moves for the season too but we upped it to 10 because of covid. I feel like 10 is just right.)

    You're summation of the strategy is spot on ross... D are definitely worth a lot less. I always always draft 2 goalies within the first 4 rounds... you do NOT wanna be left without dance partners there.

    (You suggested injuries rule who wins... there's definitely truth to that. One of the main things is taking advantage when people prematurely drop people, and knowing exactly when to scoop them. The Dobber community has been invaluable for that over the years, and I've won many a time

    The other main reason why people win, the last two years in a row.... is Connor. Thankfully I was lucky enough to draft first this year. We've talked about instituting a no Connor rule. If I win this year... it may have to happen.

    You guys have given me a hell of a lot to think about and I'm super grateful. Lots of good arguments. Gonna continue to mull it over.

    Either way -- wishing Erik much health and a grand resurgence, that's for sure.
    F: McDavid, Kucherov, Eichel, Gaudreau, M Tkachuk, E Lindholm, Rob Thomas, Hischier
    D: S Jones, Werenski, DeAngelo, Hamilton
    G: Husso, Raanta


    *** ONE YEAR - POINTS ONLY *** skaters: 1pt/G, 1pt/A. goalies: 2pt/win, 2pt/SO *** 12 teams
    MUST HAVE -- 8F, 4D, 2G --- (******Can only swap at same position, F, D, G ********)
    10 ACQUISITIONS TOTAL ON THE YEAR (**I've used NINE of them - ONE LEFT**) *** NO BENCH - NO IR - NO TRADES BETWEEN MEMBERS ***

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    Default Re: The Return of Erik Karlsson??

    If he's having some kind of resurgence, I'm going to ride that wave until he gets injured.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year. ***NO BENCH, NO IR, SWAP D for D, F for F, G for G ONLY***
    F: P Kane, Wheeler, Kucherov, Malkin, Batherson, Crosby, Eichel, Point
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Ullmark


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