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Thread: Zero G's Draft Strategy

  1. #31
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Grapes View Post
    I understand meeting the minimum 4 weekly starts.
    Trading Vasilevskiy in the off season and using the Zero-G strategy next season would be worth looking into ?
    Again, the whole strategy is about maximizing return.
    I would suggest the thesis would be "emphasize skaters and prefer skaters over goalies until the tipping point.
    It's about "going against the herd" and the difficulty is in determining the "tipping point"; which is different for each goalie.
    A built in assumption is that at least 1 of out the teams will not understand the strategy and will draft its goalies where they would be "traditionally ranked" and since you will favor skaters until the "tipping point" you will not grab any of these goalies.

    A simple example. Vasilevsky is the consensus #1 goalie.
    Traditionalists have him at say #6 overall. The stats in roto also may have him at #6 overall. However, the "Zero G" strategy says he's still human and inconsistent week-to-week so in head-to-head he's ranked #15 overall. So he goes into your rankings at #15 in a one-year league. In a keeper he is ranked the same, in order to draft him you need to get pieces worth more than this.
    Again, if you implement the strategy you expect at least one team to take him when he "falls" to pick 10, 11, 12 etc.... If however, you are sitting at the 15th pick (or later) and Vasi is there, well then you take him.
    If you take Vasi at #15 you did not "fail" to implement the Zero G strategy, you used the Zero G strategy to "properly" rank him, and got excellent value out of drafting him.

    In an extreme example the other way. If all 12 teams in a league (16 round draft) were completely committed to a rigid Zero G you would end up with a draft where the final 3 rounds were all goalies. A smart GM who anticipated this could spend his 11-13th round picks on Vasi, Helleybuck and Lehner. That GM would be laughing... having only sacrificed what were essentially waiver level replacements to get the top-3 Gs in a league.

    Back your actual question. Your league is a 7-4 goalie stats with only 2 counting stats, (W, SO) of which SO can be de-emphasized as 0-0 ties are common.
    It would make sense to trade Vasilevsky assuming the value you get back is elite. And that the waiver wire can cover you for an average of 1.5 starts per week. Colorado locks up 2.5 starts per week. Brossoit is <0.5 starts per week.

    That being said. You have: McDavid, Panarin, Marchand, Marner. 3 certain 1st rounders and 1 borderlin (Marner). WTF is going on in your league ???
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
    LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
    RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
    D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
    G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
    NO IR

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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    I've used somewhat of a hybrid forever.
    I never draft a goalie in the 1st three rounds. Ever.
    in the 4th I'll take one. Just to get one of those mid-high tier G's.

    I don't have another G in my queue until I'm filling out my bench and all other active positions are full.

    Last year this strategy netted me Mike Smith and Cam Talbot in late rounds.

    I also will not take a D in the first three rounds.

    in a keep 8, I kept 8 forwards. I drafted Freddy Andersen & Carey Price in the re-draft. one early - as there was an immediate G run and then Price in the 7th round (15th rd if you consider 8 keepers per team).

    Always late round value on goalies.

    Always.
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  3. #33
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    I've used somewhat of a hybrid forever.
    I never draft a goalie in the 1st three rounds. Ever.
    in the 4th I'll take one. Just to get one of those mid-high tier G's.

    I don't have another G in my queue until I'm filling out my bench and all other active positions are full.

    Last year this strategy netted me Mike Smith and Cam Talbot in late rounds.

    I also will not take a D in the first three rounds.

    in a keep 8, I kept 8 forwards. I drafted Freddy Andersen & Carey Price in the re-draft. one early - as there was an immediate G run and then Price in the 7th round (15th rd if you consider 8 keepers per team).

    Always late round value on goalies.

    Always.
    you've found success here i'm assuming? i have the 11th pick, then 3 picks in round 2, 1 in 3, and 3 more in 4 (i sold the farm last year for a quick rebuild)

    its a keep 4 league and historically the league takes the remaining top goalies not kept in the first 2 rounds. i'm thinking of taking 4 forwards and 1 def in the first 3 rounds then 1 goalie and 1 def/skater in round 4 and then go from there

    i think ive set a few tiers and targets teed up so im hoping it works out.
    12 Team H2H Keep 4

    2 C, 4 W, 4 D, 2 UTIL, 2 G
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, FW: W, SV%, GAA

    C: Barkov, Eichel
    W: Connor
    D:
    G: Sorokin
    ​IR:
    NA:

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Both my teams in signature were late goalie redrafts. I got good value.
    10 Owner Keepers. Keep 8

    Positions----C:3 LW:3 RW:3 D:6 G:2
    Skaters: Assists/Blocks/FOW/Goals/Hits/SOG/STP
    *
    Defense premium 1.5/1 Goalies: GA/SV/W

    Kootenay League

    C: Draisaitl(c,l), Zibanejad, Beniers, Nelson
    RW:Meier(l,r), Kyrou, Tippett, D.Stome(c,r), Stone
    LW: Tkachuk(l,r), Panarin, McCann(c,l), Marchessault(l,r),
    D: Josi, McAvoy, Morrissey, Montour, Toews, Hronek, Severson, Orlov
    G: Gustavsson, Kuemper, Gibson

  5. #35
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Thank you Lawman. Your tipping point reference makes complete sense. I understand the Zero-G strategy much better.
    Yahoo! 10 Team Keep 6, H2H - 1 win
    G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA

    C: Bennett, Couturier, Zacha
    LW: Draisaitl-C, Stutzle-C, Kaprizov, E.Kane
    RW: Marner I/R,T.Thompson-C, Necas-C, Nichushkin
    D: Dahlin, Bouchard, Gudas, Romanov, KA Miller
    G: Vasilevskiy , Skinner, Gustavsson, Woll, Allen
    4 weekly minimum start’s required
    I/R: Sergachev

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  6. #36
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    I don't have a good mathematical formula for this but this is how I approach it...
    When you have cats like (keep it simple)
    GS W GAA Save%
    You have 2 counting and 2 rate stats - I try to win the rate stats.

    So I look at the top ranked goalies and see what their rates will be. I then group all goalies that I think will beat or rival those rates.
    During the draft when that group of goalies starts to dwindle I start to draft my goalies. Keeping GP in mind as you want to hit your goalie weekly goalie start minimum while rostering just 2 goalies (assuming a start 2).
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Blues_fan1000 View Post
    you've found success here i'm assuming? i have the 11th pick, then 3 picks in round 2, 1 in 3, and 3 more in 4 (i sold the farm last year for a quick rebuild)

    its a keep 4 league and historically the league takes the remaining top goalies not kept in the first 2 rounds. i'm thinking of taking 4 forwards and 1 def in the first 3 rounds then 1 goalie and 1 def/skater in round 4 and then go from there

    i think ive set a few tiers and targets teed up so im hoping it works out.
    In those pools I’m a contender every year. Someone like Binnington or Freddy Andersen will slide. So will Carey Price - you can take Allen last round in most pools. Even Bobrovsky will go later rounds. So will Talbot - not as late as last year, but not first few.

    If your pool had 5 G cats I’d adjust and take two in the mid rounds and stick G heavy. MAF in Chi will slide rounds. So many mid round options. It gives you a strong point to start from. There’s also so many tandems out there that you can go 10. 11th rounds and grab handcuffs.

    I’ve never owned Vasil and I am routinely a top 3 team in my pools. I went 2/5 in finals last year alone and beat him in the playoffs 3 times last year alone.
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  8. #38
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Winning the most predictable cats every week is the key to success in cats leagues. By predictable, I mean likely to be the same in the short term which is the time frame of a H2H match up. Saves and to a lesser extent Goalie Wins are much more predictable from one match up to the next than GAA and SV%.

    The risk with the Zero-G strategy is that you are relying on winning less predictable cats in two ways. First you need goalies to cover GAA and SV%. Second you need your more highly drafted skaters to cover PPP, Goals and Assists. All 5 of those categories are less predicable than Saves and Goalie Wins that you punted when adopting Zero-G. If you build your team to win the most predictable cats you are more likely to win when the less predictable cats go against you.

    I guess if you're playing in leagues with many less predictable skater cats like SHP, GWG, +/-, etc. it isn't going to make a huge difference as there is more reliance on luck in winning anyway, but I tend to avoid those playing in leagues with those categories in favour of leagues with lots of predictable categories like Shots, Hits, Blocks, FOW and Saves.
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    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

  9. #39
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    +/- is not really a stat that zero-G idea helps out. By punting the volume goalie cats, you can run less goalies = additional players. More player GP more player stats. More players doesn't help this stat.

    Wins is predictable, but it's not consistent. Not like other cats. And the fact that wins is predictable just plays into the zero-G idea even more. See a goalie on waivers with a favourable match-up stream him in.
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  10. #40
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    +/- is not really a stat that zero-G idea helps out. By punting the volume goalie cats, you can run less goalies = additional players. More player GP more player stats.

    Wins is predictable, but it's not consistent. Not like other cats. And the fact that wins is predictable just plays into the zero-G idea even more. See a goalie on waivers with a favourable match-up stream him in.
    Sorry, I must have said something unclear if you believe that I think Zero-G affects +/- in any way. I do not.

    Wins are definitely a predictable category if you are assured of starts on a good team. The randomness comes in if your goalies don't get starts.

    You can dominate wins and saves with 2 volume starters on good teams in a way that you can't dominate any other 2 cats with 2 players except maybe McDavid / Draisaitl. I've used the strategy across multiple seasons in one of my leagues with Hellebuyck as my keeper. One season paired with Andersen I won the Saves category in every match-up and the Wins category in all but two match-ups which were ties.

    You certainly can't dominate GAA and SV% in the same way - too random. You probably can't even dominate G, A, PPP categories in the same way having McDavid and Draisaitl unless your league is really shallow.

    If you can't get the volume starters, is it a Zero-G strategy? Or is it a don't overdraft a goalie strategy? I'm certainly on board with passing over the split start goalie options until they make sense.

    Don't sell or pass on Vasy or Hellebuyck to try out Zero-G.

    Regarding the streaming option you mentioned, that is a given. But your competitive opponents are streaming from the same pool. Sometimes you make a lucky stream to win but match-ups against strong opponents are more often decided by who has the best core roster.
    Last edited by 65jeff; October 7, 2021 at 2:20 AM. Reason: typos
    23-24 NHL Schedule
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1242679413
    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

  11. #41
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    No - I was just pointing out that +/- is like the one/only common skater category that actually doesn't benefit.
    I also hate saying this is even a 'strategy'.

    I'm off to bed now to comment on anything else.
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  12. #42
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    Pretty sure i just unknowingly did this in my fantasy draft, check out it out here if you like: https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...62#post2158462


    …my last 3 picks are my teams goalies. And I still lucked out crazy to get Varly+Price with 2 of them.

    there’s still starters like Khudobin/Bishop/Gibson/Murray/Merzlikins avail. Only time will tell but being the first time goalies have fell this far to me in a draft (literally my final selections), I am surprisingly optimistic.
    H2H weekly matchups | 12 teams | 2C • 3W • 3D • 1UTIL • 2G • 3BN • 2IR+ | 3 weekly moves

    Scoring | 4G, 3A, 0.3+/-, 1PPP, 5SHG, 3SHA, 3GWG, 0.4SOG, 0.2FW, -0.2FL, 0.3HIT, 0.3BLK | 4W, -1GA, 0.25SV, 6SHO


    ROSTER:
    (C,W) Stamkos, Giroux
    (C) Barkov, Couturier
    (W) M.Tkachuk, Konecny, Svechnikov, Caufield
    (D) Josi, Morrissey, Theodore, Sanderson
    (G) Bobrovsky, Husso
    (IR+) Vasilevskiy, Matheson


    Record: 2-1-0

  13. #43
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    I'm just going to say... I hate this article.
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  14. #44
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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    so i ended up drafting markstrom and swayman - the draft was all sorts of weird with where players were being grabbed.

    but with yahoo's shortened week 1 - i have now realized i'll likely need to pick up 2 starts this week (our waivers just ended this morning) as not sure swayman will start the season opener on saturday.
    12 Team H2H Keep 4

    2 C, 4 W, 4 D, 2 UTIL, 2 G
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, FW: W, SV%, GAA

    C: Barkov, Eichel
    W: Connor
    D:
    G: Sorokin
    ​IR:
    NA:

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    Default Re: Zero G's Draft Strategy

    So I ended up with a Grubauer (a keeper) and Markstrom. I was very happy getting Markstrom at the end of our first round (after 10 keepers each it was pick 132). I tried to get Peterson but he was snatched up in the mid rounds and then I thought I would get Khudobin right at the end of the draft but he was taken right before me. I ended up taking Francour and then putting him on the IR and getting Raanta in free agency. My team is loaded with skaters but I will be chasing goalies all season.
    10 Team, 60 Player Roster
    G, A, PTS, PPP, PIM, BLKs, Hits, +/-, Shots, W, GAA, SV%, Saves
    C- JHughes, Trocheck, RThomas, Zegras, Norris, Bennett, PLD, Stephenson, Danualt
    RW- Raymond, Stone, TWilson, Toffoli, KJohnson, Nyqvist, Zary
    LW- Keller, Schmaltz, Bunting, Skinner, Barbashev, Duclair
    D- QHughes, McAvoy, Doughty, Heiskanen, LHughes, Mintyukov
    G- Shesterkin, Demko, Andersen, Kahkonen, Levi, Tarasov, Annunen

    Notable Prospects- Nikishin, Kulich, Leonard, Wood, Perreault, Lekkermaki, Ostlund, Othmman, REvans, L-Heureux, Ivanov, Murashov

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