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Thread: Inaugural Draft Strategy

  1. #1
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    Default Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Have a draft tonight for a league that has been a continuous re-draft year after year, that is now switching to a limited keeper.
    12 Teams - H2H Points - Daily starts - Keep 5

    Roster Positions: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR

    Forwards/Defensemen Stat Category Value
    Goals (G) 3
    Assists (A) 2
    Plus/Minus (+/-) 0.5
    Powerplay Goals (PPG) 1.5
    Powerplay Assists (PPA) 1
    Shorthanded Goals (SHG) 2
    Shorthanded Assists (SHA) 1.5
    Game-Winning Goals (GWG) 2
    Shots on Goal (SOG) 0.2
    Faceoffs Won (FW) 0.1
    Faceoffs Lost (FL) -0.1
    Hits (HIT) 0.2
    Blocks (BLK) 0.2

    Goaltenders Stat Category Value
    Wins (W) 5
    Goals Against (GA) -0.5
    Saves (SV) .2
    Shutouts (SHO) 5


    With these settings, what would your draft strategy be?

    I'm thinking I need 1G & 1D in the first 3 rounds, and unless there's a C that is an obvious choice I'm thinking of drafting them late.

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    what pick do you have? as far as your goalie and def thoughts i dont think you need to jump on them that early, with a few exceptions - Vasi/Helle would be goalies to jump on, and maybe Makar - but he wont provide you much hits/blocks. Round 5/6 would probably be the earliest i would be looking for a def

    in reality, your first few rounds will likely be your keepers so you'll want to consider who you are taking there when thinking about the now vs the future
    12 Team H2H Keep 4

    2 C, 4 W, 4 D, 2 UTIL, 2 G
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, FW: W, SV%, GAA

    C: Barkov, Eichel
    W: Connor
    D:
    G: Sorokin
    ​IR:
    NA:

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    In order, my first 5 picks would go LW/RW, LW/RW, C, D & G.
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    If Vasy is open for you I would most definitely consider taking him in round one.

    Let's look at last years stats.. Vasy vs the most dominant forward in the league ̶J̶o̶h̶n̶ ̶S̶c̶o̶t̶t̶ Connor McDavid.

    Vasy: 362.3 fantasy points
    McDavid: 373.4 fantasy points

    That's a two win difference from Vasy, and McDavid had an unreal season I don't think he will quite repeat.

    Points from goalies will be volatile since it's strongly based on wins. Having a strong goalie will help keep those goalie points earned consistent, which is nice in H2H formats.
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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    In H2H points... don't worry too much about goalies.
    In a Keep5, you want a very dynamic set of 5 keepers, all skaters. Ideally, about 3F/2D... but if you end up 4F/1D or 2F/3D... those are OK too.

    For a keeper, your first pick should be a top12 young player (NOT older than 30):
    1.McDavid, 2.Draisaitl, 3.Matthews, 4.Mackinnon, 5.Marner, 6. Pastrnak, 7.Kucherov*, 8.Rantanen, 9.Huberdeau, 10.Barkov, 11.B.Tkachuk (for those HITS), 12.Makar
    (one or two teams may take a goalie in there... that's fine... Kucherov is getting close to 30, which I don't love)

    In Round2, you pick a path
    2a - if you want to go for it, you can pick an elite 30+yr old, includes Crosby, Ovechkin, Pat Kane, Stone, Scheifele, etc.
    2b - you go with more youth (*smarter move, IMO): Aho, Svechnikov, Guentzel, Jack Hughes or high-level D like Hamilton or Hedman

    Whatever path you pick in Round 2... continue into round 3... you are either going for win or going young (I strongly advocate going young).



    If you go young, you might also consider tanking your team for a year or two - depending on how securely it gives you a top draft pick.
    Going with a guy like Svechnikov in round 2, Jack Hughes in round 3, Lafreniere in round 4... isn't a bad move.


    For me, an awesome keeper team in this league:

    Rd.1 - Makar
    Rd.2 - Svechnikov
    Rd.3 - Jack Hughes
    Rd.4 - Lafreniere
    Rd.5 - A high-end SOG/HIT D-man like Darnell Nurse. (trust me - you'll get a nice return for him once your leaguemates see him put up points)

    Finish Last.
    Draft Shane Wright in 2022 summer draft... he becomes your Keeper #5.

    Finish Last Again.
    Draft Connor Bedard in 2023 summer draft.


    I know... I know... building young, finishing last isn't the funnest way to do things.
    But Wright & Bedard are going to be fantastic... so if you can wait - this is how to build best team... IF... that is... you think it's a solid league that will hold for 5+ years so you can reap the rewards.

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    In H2H points... don't worry too much about goalies.
    In a Keep5, you want a very dynamic set of 5 keepers, all skaters. Ideally, about 3F/2D... but if you end up 4F/1D or 2F/3D... those are OK too.
    Vasi would have been 2nd in fantasy points last year in this league. With goalie points based on wins I would assume it falls off rather quickly too. Without actually doing the math on it I would bet there is huge VoR here.
    Vasi also adheres to your under 30 rule (27). (Little busy atm to run some numbers)

    I'm not one for picking goalies in the first round in H2H, but since it's a points and not cats, With these league settings I think Vasi has a strong case to be a rare except here at G.
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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    You want to go into a draft for the win. If you have a rebuild mentality from the start then that’s matter of preference. BPA is the best way to go and hopefully addressing needs as the arise. Good luck.
    Call me old one more time.

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    For reference, last year, 3 skaters finished with ~300 or more points. Just 8 with ~250 or more.

    Goalies had 4 ~300 or more, with 14 having ~250 or more.

    Trust me when I say I hate drafting goalies at all, because they're voodoo. This league's W points are heavy in favor of goalies on good squads, which makes me lean towards drafting one early so I have a little consistency there.

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    In Round2, you pick a path
    2a - if you want to go for it, you can pick an elite 30+yr old, includes Crosby, Ovechkin, Pat Kane, Stone, Scheifele, etc.
    2b - you go with more youth (*smarter move, IMO): Aho, Svechnikov, Guentzel, Jack Hughes or high-level D like Hamilton or Hedman
    Ill will also strongly recommend for you to go option 2b path. Top pick in the next two drafts will keep your fantasy team strong for many years to come.
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  10. #10
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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Everything, always, is about "relative difference".
    Quarterbacks are the highest scoring players in fantasy football... and often the QB10 scores more points than the RB3 in fantasy football.
    QB1 is ALWAYS the highest scoring player in fantasy football... so how come they don't go (usually) in the first round???
    Why does the RB3 go in every first round and the QB10 often go in the 8th round?

    Yes, you can and should check "relative difference".
    Your league will be counting the following:

    24C
    24LW
    24RW
    48D
    24G

    You want to find point values for those players... but do it from a typical full season (2019-20).
    Then you can use player projections to find out how much relative difference it is from any given guy, say McDavid, to the waiver wire center, say C25.
    Or from Vasilevskiy to the G25.
    (I know you will find out that there is a big difference from D1, likely Makar, to D49).



    There's other ways to get points with goalies too, in this set-up..
    For example, ARI plays BUF in their 2nd game of season... somebody is going to win that game... probably... Arizona.
    So you could add the ARI starting goalie for that game, then drop him. You could do that with favourable match-ups all season.

    Guys like Matt Murray (OTT) and Adin Hill (SJ) might not be drafted.
    But if those teams go up against ARI or BUF... you just add that goalie, rake the 5pts for Wins, and then drop them.
    (Assuming you don't have some crazy cap on transactions).

    You can't do that with skaters... it's not like there's going to be skaters where you can say "I'll grab this guy off the wire for an easy 5pts."


    All that said...
    You shouldn't be posting the point-counts for skater & goalies as some "tack on information"... 6-7 posts deep in your thread.
    That should go in the ORIGINAL POST. (Do that now, for anybody who happens to pop in to try to give you advice. We aren't calculators nor do we have lots of spare time to calculate your league points.)

    Props to Invictus for doing some math for you.
    But even that amount of time is only half the work... because you still have to calc relative difference to what will be on the waiver wire at any given time.


    Anyways... good luck.
    (ps. Tampa Bay is not the highest or even 2nd highest predicted team for points this year... so wins for Vas/TB won't be so easy-to-come by as in past years.)

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Hmm out of curiousity what is your add/drop settings like?
    Draft spot?
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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    Hmm out of curiousity what is your add/drop settings like?
    4 moves/week.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Everything, always, is about "relative difference".
    Quarterbacks are the highest scoring players in fantasy football... and often the QB10 scores more points than the RB3 in fantasy football.
    QB1 is ALWAYS the highest scoring player in fantasy football... so how come they don't go (usually) in the first round???
    Why does the RB3 go in every first round and the QB10 often go in the 8th round?
    I hear you P7, but you can't stream QBs in the sense that you can play 3-4 a week and capitalize on those massive point totals. If you could, I almost guarantee those RBs plummet in the draft while QBs are all taken before round 8. In this scenario you can.

    Projected Point Difference from 1 to replacement player is as follows.
    C - 211
    LW - 178
    RW - 152
    D - 118
    G - 192

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    You went to the 49th D? - that just seems really low.

    The rest falls in line to how I was thinking it would be (goalies 2nd).
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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by saucelife90 View Post
    I hear you P7, but you can't stream QBs in the sense that you can play 3-4 a week and capitalize on those massive point totals. If you could, I almost guarantee those RBs plummet in the draft while QBs are all taken before round 8. In this scenario you can.
    Seems like you are confusing my pieces of advice.
    Sorry I stopped in to try to help.
    I'll see myself out.

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    Default Re: Inaugural Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    You went to the 49th D? - that just seems really low.

    The rest falls in line to how I was thinking it would be (goalies 2nd).
    4 Starting D on each squad, with 12 teams makes the 49th D the replacement value.

    Goalies would be 1st if it wasn't for the Mcdavid Factor. Remove him from the equation and C even falls behind LW @ a difference of 172.

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