First Overall Choices - Lehner? Tavares?

[LeafsFan7]

Keepers have been announced in my 10 team - keep 70 league. My keepers are listed in signature. I didn't keep a goalie as Grubauer went to a significantly worse situation in Seattle.

I have first overall choice. Options: Lehner, Tavares, or a defensemen like Petry, Barrie, Ekblad.

I am not a big fan of drafting goalies high, but is Lehner too good of an option to pass on with who I kept? I assume he will be gone at my next pick of 10th overall. Other somewhat 'high-end' goalie options that were not kept: Talbot, Fleury, Jarry, Varlemov, Binnington, Price

My first few picks in order: 1st overall, 10th overall, 40th, 45th,46th,47th.....


Thanks in advance. Will rep!

[Pengwin7]

If it's ROTO: Lehner, for sure. (and supplement him with Brossoit 4-5 rounds later).

If it's H2H: For me... Petry! Seriously.

Petry is my preferred pick... I think he has enormous upside this year. He logged 22:44 toi/gp last year, but that could increase to 24 or 25min/gp given MON D-situation with Weber out.

He simply checks all the boxes and the MON PP could be even better this year with Caufield.

[LeafsFan7]

If it's ROTO: Lehner, for sure. (and supplement him with Brossoit 4-5 rounds later).

If it's H2H: For me... Petry! Seriously.

Petry is my preferred pick... I think he has enormous upside this year. He logged 22:44 toi/gp last year, but that could increase to 24 or 25min/gp given MON D-situation with Weber out.

He simply checks all the boxes and the MON PP could be even better this year with Caufield.

It is a H2H. I don't think Petry is a ridiculous first overall option at all. I was actually surprised when the other GM didn't keep him compared to who he did keep.

My thinking of taking Lehner was that I could possibly get one of the top tier D (Petry, Barrie,Ekblad, Rielly, Petro, etc.) at 10th overall, as well as Lehner at first (as I feel the goalie options drop off significantly after Lehner). Taking a D first, I feel that my 10th overall choice will be another F/D and then I'm waiting until Round 4 (120th player taken after keepers) for my first goalie.

[skinnypete88]

If it's ROTO: Lehner, for sure. (and supplement him with Brossoit 4-5 rounds later).

If it's H2H: For me... Petry! Seriously.

Petry is my preferred pick... I think he has enormous upside this year. He logged 22:44 toi/gp last year, but that could increase to 24 or 25min/gp given MON D-situation with Weber out.

He simply checks all the boxes and the MON PP could be even better this year with Caufield.

Man this is tough, if we're going defence first I think Barrie needs to be in this conversation. MON PP could be better but Edmonton already is great with you-know-who.

And other than hits Petry shoots less and only blocks slightly more. So really you would be banking on Petry reaching Barrie's current level or you're downgrading in points and PPP to get more hits.

With that said I would take Lehner first overall, with the intention of drafting Brossoit later as Pengwin said and then go for one of Barrie, Petry or Ekblad at 10th.

[LeafsFan7]

Man this is tough, if we're going defence first I think Barrie needs to be in this conversation. MON PP could be better but Edmonton already is great with you-know-who.

And other than hits Petry shoots less and only blocks slightly more. So really you would be banking on Petry reaching Barrie's current level or you're downgrading in points and PPP to get more hits.

With that said I would take Lehner first overall, with the intention of drafting Brossoit later as Pengwin said and then go for one of Barrie, Petry or Ekblad at 10th.

This is the way I'm leaning. As there are 3-4 D I'd be happy with, I think the risk is lessened. Petry is definitely better than Barrie with my league categories, but starting with Josi and Fox already on the squad, I feel if I miss out on the available D, I'll survive. 15 D were kept over the 10 teams, so I feel that some teams may be looking other directions with their first picks. One GM has 4 first rounders and kept Risto and Hamilton so I may get lucky holding off on D.

Thanks for your opinion!

[Axeman33]

Im taking Lehner and getting your goalie situation taken care of early. Once a goalie run starts, and we all know goalie runs happen quick, you don't want to be on the outside looking in for that. There's so few quality goalies available, and yes, they can be voodoo but I think Lehner is worth gambling on.

Im less worried about getting my D later in the draft as I prefer my D to be my skaters for cats like hits and blocks.

[Bubba55]

I'm actually a bit surprised that Lehner was not kept. The big question for me is with that 10th pick what are the chances that one or more of Lehner, Binnington, Jarry or Price might still be available? These are the guys I would want, I consider the rest a tier below. I would think that Lehner would be gone, I definitely consider him the best option, but what about the others? If one of them falls to you with that 10th pick, well that's not too bad. But, you are rolling the dice on that and again IMO, Lehner is the best goalie option other than Vasi or Hellbucyk and certainly preferred over the other available goalies listed. Personally, I like Lehner enough to take him with the 1st and go from there. Adding Brossoit later on, and, if you have Lehner already locked up the chances are pretty damn good that Brossoit will be available much later in the draft. As a last point, your keeps up front and on the back end are very strong and your in a position to build on that, however, not so with Goaltending, this is your weakness and if I'm in your shoes I'm inclined to address that key weakness sooner rather than later. Good Luck.

[Pengwin7]

Yeah... as much as I don't like investing in goalies in H2H... Lehner WILL be gone by pick #10.
Petry... Barrie... MIGHT still be there.

So it's definitely 1.G.... 10.D.... if you want to do those.
It's not a bad move to take Lehner, because I do think it starts a goalie-run... and that COULD leave Petry or Barrie on the table at #10.

Again... not my favourite way to win H2H (investing in goalies)...
But definitely the better path to choose if you hope there is a decent D man there at #10.


The goalie drop-off for Wins this year is substantial.
1. Vas (TB): 40w
2. Hellebucyk (WPG): 38w
3. Lehner (VGK): 38w
4. Kuemper (COL): 35w
...
...
...
5. Shesterkin (NYR): 30w
6-30th: HUGE GROUP ranging from 28w-to-20w.
Huge Group.
You definitely want to crack into a "tier" of players before it drops off.

NHL.com has a "Wins" prediction article that agrees.
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-project...?tid=277729150

[COLT.45]

Gotta be lehner since you dont have a keeper goalie. As others have mentioned he wont be there at 10.

[Invictus]

Start that goalie run!

[stevegamer]

I'd also go Lehner at 1, just due to the solid D options you have. Bossoit will be important to get later, of course.

If you go D, and then you need a G at 10, I'd lean Varlamov.

[pmorrow]

I think you have to go with Lehner here. As others have mentioned, you probably wont get him at 10 - and you may feel its too early for the others - and at 40 if you are picking your first goalie it could be slim pickings. I also would not be comfortable with Jarry or Price as my #1, even though they would be good #2s, and you could very well be stuck with one of those guys at 10 and feel forced to take one when they really should be taken a bit later.

One thing Ill caution about Petry is the Habs dont have a great h2h playoff schedule, at least in my league - worst in the league actually. In h2h I think there is a much higher chance of getting Petry at 10 than Lehner.

[teepee1]

Lehner, you gotta cover that Goalie spot. Its not a home run but its about as close as it gets.

[hockeyrobot]

Im taking Lehner and getting your goalie situation taken care of early. Once a goalie run starts, and we all know goalie runs happen quick, you don't want to be on the outside looking in for that. There's so few quality goalies available, and yes, they can be voodoo but I think Lehner is worth gambling on.

Im less worried about getting my D later in the draft as I prefer my D to be my skaters for cats like hits and blocks.

Agreed. And since you're first you could very easily miss the whole run. Take Lehner.

[LeafsFan7]

Post-draft update. Went with the advice of the forum and it couldn't have gone any better. Went Lehner #1 overall and it started a huge goalie run. After debating Petry at #1, he was left for me at #10 overall. My final keep spot almost went to Talbot. I ended up grabbing him in round 6 (after 7 rounds of keepers).

Draft couldn't have gone any better and I have you guys to thank. Much appreciated!