Last Keeper Help - Nurse, Varly, Buch, Vrana

[Stanley]

Hi all,

12 team H2H
21 players: 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 6 Bench
G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, H, Blk, FOW, W, L, GAA, SV%, SV, SO
Keep 4, with keepers signed to contracts of 1, 2 or 3 years max
Keepers cost the draft pick corresponding to when the player was selected

With such a limited set of keepers and short contract length, achieving team balance or taking a long term view are not relevant. Basically just looking for best value relative to the draft pick cost. For my final keeper, choice is between

Nurse - round 6
Varlamov - round 14
Buchnevich - round 17
Vrana - round 18

I'm leaning Varlamov, and signing for just 1yr. Any thoughts?

[skinnypete88]

What does the rest of your roster look like?

[Stanley]

As it's a very limited keeper, my "roster" is Eichel, Makar, Hertl and Connor. Our league allows each GM to sign up to 4 players themselves and can add another 2 keepers via trade. So it's basically a keep 4-6 depending how you go about it. And with short contract lengths, there's constant turnover on everyone's team with great players always going back into the draft.

But the main point is with such limited keepers, I'm not too concerned about achieving a balanced roster with my keepers. Just looking to identify the best value vs draft position for the next season or 2.

[skinnypete88]

In that case I would say Varlamov is your best value. His Yahoo ADP is like half of what you got him in. This season and next he shouldn't be going less than 50% of starts.

[senryu]

It's between Nurse and Varlamov. Given (1) the disparity in original round picks and (2) the fact that keeper contracts are very short, I'd go with Varlamov. If this was a hold-forever or long-contract league, I'd lean Nurse. But you can likely squeeze 1-2 more years of top 3-7 ish goalie production from Varlamov.

[Bubba55]

Have to agree with most, locking Varlamov in short term makes sense.

[Stanley]

Thanks guys.

Any thoughts on how many more years Varly can be strong value as a 14th rounder? Not concerned about him being worth at least a 14th rounder next year, but as we know, in limited keeper the opportunity cost of one guy vs another is key. Debate is to keep for 1yr only, or 2 or 3?

[pieceofschmidt]

Varly. Your league counts 6 goalie cats. Varlamov had a statistically great year last season and should be solid this year for sure. Amazing value at a 14th rounder.

[rangerdanger]

If Tarasenko gets moved, Buch could be great value there, but I am not sure if he will.

With that setup, I would be inclined to keep Nurse. That might not be popular. But my guess is Nurse has finished the last 2 seasons in that league scoring, well above a round 6 ADP. And there is no reason to think that will stop any time soon. In my leagues at least, he's finished the last two seasons as a top 30 overall player. Actually he was the #14 overall skater in one of my leagues last season and #22 in another. Which would be well worth a 6th round pick in my estimation. He's terribly undervalued. And if he wasn't so good in 5x5, even strength and PK, the Oilers would be using him on their PP1 and he would be one of the highest scoring Dmen in hockey. He's just so good at other aspects of the game, he's worth more to them playing more minutes off the PP. He would be well outscoring even Barrie if he had Barrie's PP minutes. The only reason they let Barrie have all the PP1 time is because Nurse is so good elsewhere.

If you look at Nurse's point totals, compared to Barrie, it's astonishing what he can produce with only PP2 and 5x5, even strength and PK. One of the best offensive Dmen in the entire NHL.

[Stanley]

Thanks RangerDanger,

I agree with your assessment of real-world Nurse, but all we care about here is stats. I was a very happy Nurse owner last year after I drafted him in the 6th round as the 8th D-man off the board. The only question is how likely is he to continue that kind of offensive performance. His peripheral stats last year are pretty much in line with his career but that 10.4 SH% is more than double his career avg and almost double his next highest single year total even as his SOG rate was only incrementally up. That's 7-8 out of his 16 goals right there, without which he's still good value at r6 but not outrageous like last season.

Same could be said about Varlamov for that matter, hence my question about who is likely to continue at last year's pace and offer the best return vs draft position.

[stevegamer]

It's either Varlamov for 2 years or Vrana for 3 years for me.

Nurse is a non-factor coming at a round 6 cost, he's likely not to be drafted before round 4, which isn't enough of a discount.
Buchnevich is see as similar to Vrana but at a one round higher cost, and also behind Tarasenko.

Does Eichel cost you a really high pick, or did you get him cheaply? If it's a round 1 pick, he might be a throwback, and keep someone else.

[Stanley]

Thanks Stevegamer

Eichel is round 4, Makar r8, Hertl r13 and Connor r16. All are locked in for this year, can't drop, nor would I want to.

As you say, it's the round 6 pick for Nurse that is good, but not great value. I think I'm biased against Vrana as I've drafted him late for a few years in a row hoping for the breakout that never came. With the trade, this could be the year, but still seems risky he'll massively overperform r18 and he's also likely easily draftable for decent value a few rounds earlier. I may regret that a couple years from now.

I keep coming back to Varly and the confidence of having a decent starter/platoon guy on a solid defensive team at r14. Makes the draft a little easier knowing I have that in my pocket.

Appreciate everyone's thoughts so far.

[Stanley]

if it matters, Sorokin will likely be kept by his current owner so zero chance of drafting the tandem.

[stevegamer]

Thanks Stevegamer

Eichel is round 4, Makar r8, Hertl r13 and Connor r16. All are locked in for this year, can't drop, nor would I want to.

As you say, it's the round 6 pick for Nurse that is good, but not great value. I think I'm biased against Vrana as I've drafted him late for a few years in a row hoping for the breakout that never came. With the trade, this could be the year, but still seems risky he'll massively overperform r18 and he's also likely easily draftable for decent value a few rounds earlier. I may regret that a couple years from now.

I keep coming back to Varly and the confidence of having a decent starter/platoon guy on a solid defensive team at r14. Makes the draft a little easier knowing I have that in my pocket.

Appreciate everyone's thoughts so far.

Given that dropping Eichel isn't an option, I'd go with Varlamov given your feelings. If Eichel was tradable, I'd think about dealing him, and keeping both Vrana & Varlamov.

[LeafsFan7]

I think Varlamov is the choice here. I'm not seeing the value on Nurse in the 6th round. I think you keep Varly and then focus on defenseman in your draft. Coming from a guy that doesn't see the value of keeping/drafting goalies high. Good luck!