Erik Karlsson, Dynasty/redraft expectations.

[rangerdanger]

Team and league in sig. Keepers submitted by tonight.

What are people expecting from EK? Does he bounce back this season? Next? Ever? Or even if he does play better, is he likely to be a significant fantasy contributor?

Wondering if I should keep a guy like Zac Jones or Nolan Foote instead who could have higher, sustained long term value in dynasty. Prospects tend to be worth more than older players on the down turn. Even though EK is just like 31 I think, he’s been real poor for Sharks and I’m really not sure what to expect from him this season and beyond.

Or if he’s even worth keeping, even though he’s still close to 70% owned on Yahoo. Could just be people clinging to his name value rather than actual value.

Leave a link, will help with yours..

[ross10019]

Poor? Sure last year he was poor, but not the years before - he has a terrific year in ‘18/‘19 with the Sharks.

I’d easily keep him over the guys you mention.

Safe prediction: 40 points

My prediction: 49 points

[Bubba55]

There is no doubt that EK is not the player he was. Lets not forget how high he set the bar in his prime, like PPG high in 15-16. Honestly, I think EK can put up 40 points in his sleep even with the Sharks and I wouldn't bet against that floor for 2 or 3 more years barring injury. 45 would be just OK and 50 would not be unexpected whatsoever or an unreasonable expectation. If he has a good year and the Sharks youth takes a nice step EK can flirt with 55 - 60. He had a poor year last year but the previous 3 years he put up pts/gm of .87 .85 .71. In a CAP league EK's value is a bit concerning, well, a lot concerning and you hear that on the Forum all the time, rightfully so, but in your league that's not a concern and 50 pt+ Defencemen do not grow on trees. Not keeping EK over young guys like Jones or Foote (these guys are not elite blue chip defensive prospects IMO) would not be something I would advise.

[pmorrow]

His mobility has gotten worse the last couple of years. But he's still getting paid a lot so will play a lot in good opportunities. He can still fire the puck pretty well and distribute in offensive zone chances. I think he can produce something close to 40 points if he's somewhat healthy. Either slightly below or above. He had some nagging injuries last year but when he returned he played decently well. If you look at him as a 35 point guy who has the potential for 45, you probably won't be disappointed.

[Doug Glatt]

There is no doubt that EK is not the player he was. Lets not forget how high he set the bar in his prime, like PPG high in 15-16. Honestly, I think EK can put up 40 points in his sleep even with the Sharks and I wouldn't bet against that floor for 2 or 3 more years barring injury. 45 would be just OK and 50 would not be unexpected whatsoever or an unreasonable expectation. If he has a good year and the Sharks youth takes a nice step EK can flirt with 55 - 60. He had a poor year last year but the previous 3 years he put up pts/gm of .87 .85 .71. In a CAP league EK's value is a bit concerning, well, a lot concerning and you hear that on the Forum all the time, rightfully so, but in your league that's not a concern and 50 pt+ Defencemen do not grow on trees. Not keeping EK over young guys like Jones or Foote (these guys are not elite blue chip defensive prospects IMO) would not be something I would advise.

The stats show a steady decline underway. When he was putting up huge totals he was among the league leaders in blocks. Those days are long gone since his ankle surgery. He plays for a really bad team.
You have a really stacked D corps for an 18-team league. I dont see EK ever being anything more than he is now. If thats good enough, keep him. I wouldnt keep those young guys you mentioned because they dont appear to be threats to develop into anything special.

[rangerdanger]

The stats show a steady decline underway. When he was putting up huge totals he was among the league leaders in blocks. Those days are long gone since his ankle surgery. He plays for a really bad team.
You have a really stacked D corps for an 18-team league. I dont see EK ever being anything more than he is now. If thats good enough, keep him. I wouldnt keep those young guys you mentioned because they dont appear to be threats to develop into anything special.

That's what I was thinking more or less.

All though, I do at least disagree about Jones. Right now he's the Rangers highest offensive ceiling LD and I think at least, has PP1, top 4 D potential That's going to be very difficult as long as he's with the Rangers, but they are almost certainly going to have to trade one or two of Jones, Miller, Lundkvist or Robertson. Fox and Schneider I think are the only two really untouchable young D for the Rangers. Yea, even Lundkvist, who is hyped beyond belief now, is probably not untouchable because he's so similar to Fox and he's not beating Fox, Trouba for the top 2 RD spots, and when Trouba is gone, Schneider almost certainly going to take his place. Which means Lundkvist really needs to transition to LD probably to have any future with the Rangers team, and then he will have to contest with Jones and Miller. And whomever they end up trading for will determine who they move. IE, if they wanted to try to land a young center like Turcotte or maybe Perfetti or whomever, Lundkvist would probably have to be part of the deal. If they resorted to Kupari or someone a bit lesser, probably Jones or Miller would be the price etc.. And I really do think Jones, often compared to a LD version of Fox, justifiably, could give him a run for his money. But more so, I think if Jones ends up getting traded, he has PP1 and top 4 D potential.

But yea, I see what you are saying about EK. All though, 40 points without blocks like he used to get, still probably puts him in the 175+ range for overall league player ranking. And I do worry about Mario Ferraro now, Merkley and then Burns obviously is still there.

[rangerdanger]

Poor? Sure last year he was poor, but not the years before - he has a terrific year in ‘18/‘19 with the Sharks.

I’d easily keep him over the guys you mention.

Safe prediction: 40 points

My prediction: 49 points

That's fair. All though, I can't seem to find his rating for the 18/19 season. But the 19/20 season he scored 40 points with 75 blocks, 13 ppp and ended up the 323rd overall ranked player in this league. Partly because of a poor +/-, which we've been trying to get the commish to get rid of, but he's reluctant now in our 14th season. So even with 40 points, his overall contribution is pretty low compared to guys that will probably be on the WW. While they won't score 40, they probably will contribute more across the board.

It's a tough call for me, but thanks. I do think he could reach the 40-49 point range as you suggest this year. But Ferraro, Merkley and Burns still worry me a bit. Especially with how good Ferraro looked last season, even on limited PP time.