Alright, fine! I'll draft him then.
Edit: I should have said pumping the tires on him and buy-low opportunity. Not necessarily hype, as I know he's already established as elite!
As I look around the league for potential "buy low" opportunities, I can't help but look at Teravainen and think he's the top target. I am absolutely baffled by how "low" some people seem to be on him, basing their assessments on a season where he had a concussion, was eased back into the lineup, and only played 21 games (2 of which were <10 min TOI because of his injury).
As a result of the above, people are saying "he only paced for 59 points" -- despite the sample size being 21 games! Two of which he hardly played. All it takes is one 2 point game at that sample size, and he's back at the 70 pt mark.
It's also baffling how people think Necas is the second coming, and will hurt Teravainen. Having watched a lot of Carolina games, I can say that Teravainen is the player that drives that team and is a far more skilled player. Further, after being eased back in following his concussion, he re-established himself as the go-to player and was soaking up all the top PP1 minutes in the playoffs. Over his last seven games in the playoffs, Teravainen was on the ice for 71% of PP time. In addition, him and Aho are paired together with chemistry you can't recreate.
Reasons I'm strongly urging you to buy him now while you can:
- Last two full seasons he put up identical paces of 76 points
- He's entering the peak of his prime (just turned 27)
- He's on a top team, and has established himself on the top line, and attached to the hip of Aho with incredible chemistry
- All metrics and advanced stats point him to being one of the top players in the NHL. He's an elite playmaker, elite passer, elite vision, and elite at control/possession. He drives the train--he's not a passenger. Players like him will continue to find their way to put up the numbers and be in good ES and PP situations.
For these reasons, I can't help but imagine he is the league's best buy low fantasy player right now. I'm comfortable putting his floor for this season at 70 points, with upside for 80. How some people are projected him for as low as 60 points is something I cannot wrap my head around.
Alright, fine! I'll draft him then.
12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
RW - Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
G - Skinner
B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros
12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors): G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
'24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
F - McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk
Already had him…yay
Call me old one more time.
- Roy Kent
I'm gonna try and swing a deal. Do you think McDavid + will be enough? Seriously, I agree, this guy can be better and a good number of indicators point to that, and, I agree he will prove it this year. 75 pts give or take a few sounds about right. We'll see.
14 Team Roto; Keep 25; 12 F, 6 D, 2 G; 10 Farm; 5 Bench; 5 IR;
Salary Cap - 102.5 Mil
Scoring Cats: G, A, Pts, PIM, Hits, BS, SOG, F Points, D Points; Win+Ties+SO, GAA, SV%
Keepers
F: Aho, Larkin, DeBrincat, Vrana, Bennett, Scheifele, Kakko,Tolvanen, McBain,
D: Heiskanen, Fox, Toews, Lundqvist
G: Swayman, Andersen, Copley
Drops
F: Gaudreau, Terravainen, Puljujarvi, Kravstov, Zary
D: Brannstrom, Cernak, Alexeyev
G: Korpisalo, Merzlikins
FARM: Rossi, Berggren, Holtz, Savoie, Clarke, Tarasov, Wolf
im not sure i call it a hype, he has been pretty consistent , when healthy , since joining Carolina.
I do think his competition is getting better, but he will still produce i believe.
14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups
Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO
C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones
14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups
Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO
C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones
I like Teuvo, I do.. but I think that saying he 'drives the train' or 'drives the team' is a bit misleading, imo. You say he's not a passenger, but I think he certainly is, in the sense that he is a complementary player and not a play driver. Depending on how you want to define play driving. Sebastian Aho, Svechnikov, Necas and Trocheck all had more success regarding Zone Entry and Exits, for the 2020 season. I don't have a lot of stats surrounding overall puck posession in the offensive zone, but I'm sure TT is better there. But I don't consider that driving the train, because other players have to get it there for him. Between 2016-19 the difference between Aho/Trocheck and Teravainen's Zone entry/exits is staggering. I'm not certain on the policy of sharing charts from Patron's though?
Here is at least a more public analysis of zone entry stats, looking at every team in the league. Even here he is 5th on the team, behind Necas. Trocheck's analytics surrounding Zone exits and entries is totally absurd, btw, in the other data I have.
https://oilersnation.com/2020/09/14/...zNA1CjcnBszQe9
I think you're overhyping TT a bit here, and it's no coincidence that he wasn't a productive player until he played with Aho, who showed last season he doesn't need TT to be productive. Necas did just fine as a replacement. I do think teams still need players like TT who are extremely creative and can make plays in the offensive zone.
However, I consider TT as a complementary winger who is highly creative, skilled and is great in the offensive zone. But I would say that Aho is most certainly the play driver of that line when they are together. Watching Necas and Aho together last season, they looked a lot more equal on playdriving than TT and Aho. I'm curious to see what analytics you consider most important for driving play or 'driving the team', but I'd consider taking the puck from the defensive zone into the offensive zone an important indicator, as well as being able to produce without the need of other players to create that increase in production for the player (although obviously line-mates help, especially as a playmaker). Necas, Svechnikov, Trocheck and Aho are all better 'play-drivers' than TT, imo. Again, depending on how you define it.
But I'll put him between 64-69 points next season, because I think he is really good in the ozone and Carolina has a ton of players that can get the puck there. Also, I personally think Necas is a better fit for Aho and will show that next year. His skating allows him to match Aho's pace far better than TT, imo.
Anyways, I can tell you like the player, and I'm not trying to bash him, as I've liked him since his strong 2014 WJC, I just don't really see him as a play-driver. It's pretty clear to me that Aho 'drives the train', not TT.
If you didn't mean play-driver by 'drive the train' or 'drive the team', then, my mistake. But either way, I don't think he drives the train.
Also, I don't think Necas is the second-coming, as you put it, but I think he will become a better overall player than Teuvo Teravainen. Anyways, if people think he's all of a sudden going to be a 50 point player, than sure, buy-low. But my guess is not many TT owners think that, at all.
Edit: another point: his team won their division when he missed over half the season. And when I think of a player who drives the train, I think of someone who is essential to the team's success.
16 team Pts only dynasty league
G, A, PPG, SHG, GWG, Svs, SO's, W's
Pro Roster Starters: 9 F, 6 D 1 G
FWD: Hertl, Forsberg, Quinn, Rantanen, Debrincat, Couturier, Dach, Trocheck, Larkin, Seguin
D: Chychrun, Grzelcyk, Trouba, Burns, Walman, Karlsson, Graves
G: Kahkkonen, Keumper, Reimer
Farm (notables):
F: Pekarcik, Dellandrea, Cowan, Puistola, Halttunen, Simoneau, Bolduc, Nadeau, Stankhoven
D: Brzustewicz, Alexeyev, Jiricek, Reinbacher, Minnetian
G: Fedotov, Tarasov, Kochetkov, Skarek, M. Gibson
Maybe he doesn't drive the train but I don't think he is a passenger either. Should end up with 65+ points and a solid +/- on a great team.
I think his floor is 70 and upside is 90, not 80... think about 60 assistissesess when Svech goes nuts as I think he will too... and... Aho!
10 Team H2H Points (Keep 1C, 2W, 2D, 1G, & 1 non-goalie):
G,A,+/-, PIM, PPG, SHG, GWG, OTG, FOWs, Hits, Blks, Maj, Mis, (bonus scoring for D-men makes them comparable to Wing)
Wins, Saves, GA, Shutouts
18 Man Roster (3 IR slots) Daily Start: 2C, 4W, 4D, 2G
C: Zibanejad, Thomas, Tavares
W: Stutzle, Robertson, Connor, Buchnevich, McCann
D: Makar, McAvoy, Josi, Theodore, Matheson, Harley
G: Georgiev, Binnington, Kochetkov, Andersen (IR)