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Thread: Annual checkup!

  1. #1
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    Default Annual checkup!

    Alrighty - time to do the ol' annual strategy/positioning check for my competitive H2H league.


    League setup is 12 teams, rosters of:
    - 3 C
    - 3 LW
    - 3 RW
    - 6 D
    - 2 G
    - 6 BN
    - 2 IR
    - 10 farm (200 GP eligibility for skaters, 100 for goalies)


    Daily roster changes, and farm players can be called up to cover main roster injuries. Otherwise, if you roster a prospect full-time, you have to wait to the offseason to send them back down to the farm. For me, the strategic wrinkle from this is that a farm-eligible player that is meaningfully producing is a nice "free keep" in the offseason.


    It's a total fantasy points scoring system, meaning that all scoring is rolled into a single number each week:
    P = 1
    Defense P = 1.15
    +/- = 0.32
    SOG = 0.015 (ignore!!)
    PIM = 0.08
    hits = 0.08
    Blocks = 0.2
    PPP = 0.4
    SHP = 0.6 (ignore!!)
    W = 2
    SV = 0.08
    GA = -0.64
    SO = 3


    To provide a bit of context on what this scoring system means, it's that the "waiver skater" is typically in the range of 1.0 FP/GP. A goalie win is usually around 2.5-3.0 FP, and a shutout is around 7 GP. A superstar skater can tag 2.0 FP/GP, but that's damn rare.


    My team is below with brackets for projected scoring on a fantasy points per game played basis [based on the Dobber/FHG rankings for this particular league setup | Fantrax's projections | last year]


    Main
    C: Kuznetsov [1.07|1.23|1.03], Trocheck [1.38|1.28|1.42]
    LW: Guentzel [1.55|1.45|1.45], Hall [1.13|1.23|0.83], E Kane [1.33|1.31|1.29]
    RW: Bennett (C/RW)[1.43|1.07|0.95], Laine (LW/RW)[1.00|1.14|0.59], Tarasenko [1.24|1.14|0.86]
    D: Hamilton [1.41|1.51|1.54], Ekblad [1.21|1.26|1.22], Trouba [1.15|1.26|1.15], Dumba [1.09|0.99|1.03], DeAngelo [1.24|1.21|0.26], Karlsson [1.04|0.94|0.80]
    G: Lehner [2.12|2.23|2.07], Markstrom [1.84|1.62|1.57], Andersen [2.00|1.83|1.31]


    Farm
    Jack Hughes, C [0.95|0.82|0.72]
    Byfield, C [-|0.61|-]
    Rossi, C [1.03|-|-]
    Farabee, LW [0.94|1.02|0.96]
    Lafreniere, LW [0.92|0.57|0.47]
    Kaliyev, LW/RW
    Dahlin, D [1.12|0.90|0.69]
    Harley, D
    Nedeljkovic, G [0.85|1.76|2.68]
    Vanecek, G [1.92|1.71|1.76]
    Vladar, G [1.56|1.46|-]
    Tarasov, G


    Keep any 15 pros + 10 farm.


    My team did horribly last year so I overhauled it on the fly pretty damn successfully. I believe I should be competitive. It's daily start H2H so volume of GP in a matchup matters a lot. Dahlin can't be kept on the farm for more than 3 GP, so he'll get the callup to the main roster after the draft.


    Thoughts? Who would you keep?

  2. #2
    random-d's Avatar
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Off the top of my head I would keep the following

    Guentzel, Kane (guessing that's Patrick?), Bennett, Trocheck, Hamilton, Ekblad, Trouba, DeAngelo, Lehner, Markstrom

    Drop Harley and Tarasov from the farm, everyone else could contribute this year in some way.
    16 team Pts only dynasty league
    G, A, PPG, SHG, GWG, Svs, SO's, W's
    Pro Roster Starters: 9 F, 6 D 1 G

    FWD: Hertl, Forsberg, Quinn, Rantanen, Debrincat, Couturier, Dach, Trocheck, Larkin, Seguin
    D: Chychrun, Grzelcyk, Trouba, Burns, Walman, Karlsson, Graves
    G: Kahkkonen, Keumper, Reimer

    Farm (notables):
    F: Pekarcik, Dellandrea, Cowan, Puistola, Halttunen, Simoneau, Bolduc, Nadeau, Stankhoven
    D: Brzustewicz, Alexeyev, Jiricek, Reinbacher, Minnetian
    G: Fedotov, Tarasov, Kochetkov, Skarek, M. Gibson

  3. #3
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    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Edited for clarity. It's Evander, not Patrick, and it's 15 main roster keepers.

    RW is the obvious weakness. What would you do about it?

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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    For pros I'd cut Dumba, then either Trouba or Karlsson. You can afford to start a little light on D, since you'll be getting Dahlin soon.

    For minors I'd cut Tarasov, then either Harley or Vladar.

    Great set of minors! I think you've got a solid team coming up through the ranks.
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Thanks for the comments.

    I think I'm in agreement with the bubble guys here:

    Pros (cut 2)
    C: Kuznetsov
    D: Dumba, Trouba, Karlsson

    Farm (cut 2)
    Tarasov
    Harley
    Vladar
    Kaliyev

    Come on, I need more thoughts than that to gauge the wisdom of the crowd! Part of this is identifying who people don't​ like so I can redraft them.

  6. #6
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    Dobber Sports Grand Master

    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Farm:
    I'd cut Harley & Tarasov.

    Pros:
    I want to know how a suspension to Evander Kane works in the league rules. I can see him anywhere from "no guilt, no problem" to "lifetime ban". That's something I need an answer to first.
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  7. #7
    random-d's Avatar
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Yeah, if it's E. Kane, I think I would rather drop him and keep Hall. I don't want to wait around to find out I missed a keeper, also even if he doesn't suspended, the team (read: his teammates) has said they don't want him in the locker room.
    16 team Pts only dynasty league
    G, A, PPG, SHG, GWG, Svs, SO's, W's
    Pro Roster Starters: 9 F, 6 D 1 G

    FWD: Hertl, Forsberg, Quinn, Rantanen, Debrincat, Couturier, Dach, Trocheck, Larkin, Seguin
    D: Chychrun, Grzelcyk, Trouba, Burns, Walman, Karlsson, Graves
    G: Kahkkonen, Keumper, Reimer

    Farm (notables):
    F: Pekarcik, Dellandrea, Cowan, Puistola, Halttunen, Simoneau, Bolduc, Nadeau, Stankhoven
    D: Brzustewicz, Alexeyev, Jiricek, Reinbacher, Minnetian
    G: Fedotov, Tarasov, Kochetkov, Skarek, M. Gibson

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    random-d, maybe you're mis-counting the number of folks I can keep? I'd thought I would keep both E Kane and Hall.

    Suspension to Kane in this league is IR eligible, which would give me a free callup of Hughes/Lafreniere/Farabee/Rossi/Nedeljkovic. So easy to mitigate Kane not playing if that's the case.

  9. #9
    Wotan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    At first glance I've read the title as "anal checkup!" Sorry... I see myself out...

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Trouba and Karlsson are no longer keepers IMO. Trouba is behind Fox and the Rangers will look to move him asap when his NMC runs out. Lundkvist and soon Schneider will be competing for his spot long term. And Trouba just won't produce enough. And I think for now, Lundkvist and maybe Jones will end up taking Trouba's PP opportunity.

    Karlsson could rebound but I still don't think he will return to his old value.

    Don't let this gambling stuff effect what you do with Evander Kane. Even with all this going on he was the Sharks best player last season and had one of his best career years. I don't expect that to change. And I actually don't think he bet on NHL games, or at least, I don't think he will get caught or that anything will come from the investigation which has slowed down a lot. Kane is still one of the best fantasy wingers and especially for banger leagues. I would actually be using this opportunity to try to acquire him in leagues where I didn't own him.

    With that scoring I am definitely keeping Dumba over both Karlsson and Trouba.

    I'm actually not a big fan of Bennett this season. However, if Tarasenko ends up remaining with the Blues, I don't think he will have a very good year. I might consider cutting Tarasenko unless he actually gets traded. Tarasenko and Buch will end up hurting eachother's value if Tara stays.

    But really, Trouba and Karlsson probably the main cuts from your main roster. If you really feel like keeping one of them though, I would consider cutting Tarasenko instead. Don't trust him to remain healthy or to produce like days of old. If he went to a team like the Islanders though, that all changes and he becomes fairly valuable.

    From your farm, I would cut Tarasov and either Vladar or Vanecek. That's a tough one. I actually like Vladar, but don't like his opportunity for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile Vanecek is coming off a surprise year, one that I don't think he will repeat with a healthy Samsonov. But, based off of last seasons production, you might be able to trade Vanecek for something really good, or a really good prospect. In which case, I would maybe keep him and go that route. But if you wouldn't be shopping Vanecek, I might actually prefer Vladar long term.
    18 Team H2H Dynasty 9x4 cat. Roster 30 + 2 NA, 4 DL. 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,1G,11BN
    Scoring cats are G, A, +\-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FW, HIT, BLK
    W, GAA, SV%, SHO.
    C: Crosby, Horvat, , E. Lindholm (RW), Aho, W. Johnston (RW), Bjugstad,
    LW: Marchand, J. Benn, E. Kane, Fiala, Barbashev (C), Schwartz (C), Namestikov (C)
    RW: M. Tkachuk (LW), JT Miller (C), Batherson, Hyman (LW), Frederic (C), Palmieri
    D: J. Carlson, Josi, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Seider, Gudas, Ekman-Larsson,
    G: Vasilievkiy, Shesterkin, Husso
    NA: Mukhamadullin (D), I. Rosen (RW), D. .Levi (G)
    LTIR: Landeskog (LW), Dach (C)

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Annual checkup!

    Trouba has been clearly better than all these guys the last 3 years, and he gets more PP time if someone ahead of him gets hurt. He's a keep for sure.

    I'd cut Karlsson & Kuznetsov. Both have been waiver-level guys 2 of the last 3 years; admittedly I'm guessing that a wavier level D is a bit under 1.0 FP/G while a forward is over.

    Dumba has been better than Karlsson the last 3 years, so while he hasn't been great, he is better. Versus Kuznetsov, he's a D which is more scarce, and Suter's gone freeing up TOI and PPTOI.
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