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Thread: Draft Advice 2021-22

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    Default Draft Advice 2021-22

    One Year. Points only. (Not a keeper league, no weekly H2H, no playoffs. Just straight, cumulative points)
    10 team. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F (any position), 4D, 2G

    NO BENCH. NO IR. 5 DROPS all season.

    Obviously, I just have to hope to take the BPA each round, but with these parameters, does anybody care to give some draft advice, as the draft makes or breaks the team. Any strategies you seasoned experts would use for this format?


    Examples: when to take a goalie, and who to target, what defencemen to avoid like the plague. Must-have players, and no-draft players.

    Thank you.
    Last edited by Aerofoil; October 1, 2021 at 12:32 PM.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Tips:
    1. Make projections for all players (or use Dobber's) and multiply Gx1.15, since every 7th goal, or so, is a game-winner (roughly).
    2. Total up the point output of the following positional ranks:
    81st F
    41st D
    21st G
    (Your league drafts 80F, 40D, 20G... so you are thinking about "who is at the end of this draft at this position if I don't take this best-at-position player now."
    3. You'll draft BPA - but by relative difference to last "counting player". If you are looking at a 75pt F, 45 D, and 65pt G... and the 81/41/21 guys would get 50pt, 25pt, 30pt... then you are going with the goalie, who is the +35 (best) value.


    With only 4 drops, you HAVE to draft healthy players.
    A possible advanced strategy might be to use the Same Night Tool (see the one-year forums) and see if any teams are AHEAD SIGNIFICANTLY in GamesPlayed at various points of the season.

    Say, for some reason, on Feb.1st, Carolina has played 54gp and then next highest NHL team is at 51gp... you might go with CAR players knowing they get their games in on front-end of schedule.
    But, more likely, you could have an injury early on in season, first month or two... so I'd really be looking at teams that lead the NHL in GP at end of October, November.
    Check those to marks for who has most GP played on Oct.31 and Nov.30.
    Specifically, Nov.30, there might be some teams at 20gp and others at 15gp. It happens.


    So... best relative difference players available at your pick, healthy guys, and guys with a heavier front-part-of-season schedule... so that if they get injured, you've maybe gotten a few extra games from them over the NHL-pace.

    Good luck.
    Be sure to post who you draft - simple, yet interesting league.

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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tips:
    1. Make projections for all players (or use Dobber's) and multiply Gx1.15, since every 7th goal, or so, is a game-winner (roughly).
    2. Total up the point output of the following positional ranks:
    81st F
    41st D
    21st G
    (Your league drafts 80F, 40D, 20G... so you are thinking about "who is at the end of this draft at this position if I don't take this best-at-position player now."
    3. You'll draft BPA - but by relative difference to last "counting player". If you are looking at a 75pt F, 45 D, and 65pt G... and the 81/41/21 guys would get 50pt, 25pt, 30pt... then you are going with the goalie, who is the +35 (best) value.


    With only 4 drops, you HAVE to draft healthy players.
    A possible advanced strategy might be to use the Same Night Tool (see the one-year forums) and see if any teams are AHEAD SIGNIFICANTLY in GamesPlayed at various points of the season.

    Say, for some reason, on Feb.1st, Carolina has played 54gp and then next highest NHL team is at 51gp... you might go with CAR players knowing they get their games in on front-end of schedule.
    But, more likely, you could have an injury early on in season, first month or two... so I'd really be looking at teams that lead the NHL in GP at end of October, November.
    Check those to marks for who has most GP played on Oct.31 and Nov.30.
    Specifically, Nov.30, there might be some teams at 20gp and others at 15gp. It happens.


    So... best relative difference players available at your pick, healthy guys, and guys with a heavier front-part-of-season schedule... so that if they get injured, you've maybe gotten a few extra games from them over the NHL-pace.

    Good luck.
    Be sure to post who you draft - simple, yet interesting league.
    Wow, you went above and beyond my hopes for this, thanks so much. I've never considered any of this, it's extremely helpful. Much appreciated.
    I'll post my draft when it's done.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tips:
    1. Make projections for all players (or use Dobber's) and multiply Gx1.15, since every 7th goal, or so, is a game-winner (roughly).
    2. Total up the point output of the following positional ranks:
    81st F
    41st D
    21st G
    (Your league drafts 80F, 40D, 20G... so you are thinking about "who is at the end of this draft at this position if I don't take this best-at-position player now."
    3. You'll draft BPA - but by relative difference to last "counting player". If you are looking at a 75pt F, 45 D, and 65pt G... and the 81/41/21 guys would get 50pt, 25pt, 30pt... then you are going with the goalie, who is the +35 (best) value.


    With only 4 drops, you HAVE to draft healthy players.
    A possible advanced strategy might be to use the Same Night Tool (see the one-year forums) and see if any teams are AHEAD SIGNIFICANTLY in GamesPlayed at various points of the season.

    Say, for some reason, on Feb.1st, Carolina has played 54gp and then next highest NHL team is at 51gp... you might go with CAR players knowing they get their games in on front-end of schedule.
    But, more likely, you could have an injury early on in season, first month or two... so I'd really be looking at teams that lead the NHL in GP at end of October, November.
    Check those to marks for who has most GP played on Oct.31 and Nov.30.
    Specifically, Nov.30, there might be some teams at 20gp and others at 15gp. It happens.


    So... best relative difference players available at your pick, healthy guys, and guys with a heavier front-part-of-season schedule... so that if they get injured, you've maybe gotten a few extra games from them over the NHL-pace.

    Good luck.
    Be sure to post who you draft - simple, yet interesting league.
    One thing about drafting healthy players, one owner last season(same format) drafted Pastrnak in the late rounds, which turned out to be really good for him. That's a rare case though, not many players will come back from injury like that.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    By "healthy"... a guy that might miss first week or two of season... isn't a guy I meant to avoid.
    Pastrnak wasn't a bad injury, I drafted him in both my one-year leagues, expecting he'd be good to go a few weeks into the season.


    If Malkin was healthy going into this year - I'd still say "Don't draft him in your format".
    I'll say that about Tarasenko - "Don't draft him".
    Max Pacioretty... Vincent Trocheck... these kind of guys, if there's somebody else anywhere near comparable... you go with them instead.
    Anybody that has missed significant time in two of the past 3 seasons... you have to consider avoiding them with your set-up of full-season points.

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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    By "healthy"... a guy that might miss first week or two of season... isn't a guy I meant to avoid.
    Pastrnak wasn't a bad injury, I drafted him in both my one-year leagues, expecting he'd be good to go a few weeks into the season.


    If Malkin was healthy going into this year - I'd still say "Don't draft him in your format".
    I'll say that about Tarasenko - "Don't draft him".
    Max Pacioretty... Vincent Trocheck... these kind of guys, if there's somebody else anywhere near comparable... you go with them instead.
    Anybody that has missed significant time in two of the past 3 seasons... you have to consider avoiding them with your set-up of full-season points.
    I punched the g x 1.15 formula into Scott Cullen's 2021-22 projections.
    John Carlson, Makar, Adam Fox came out as the top 3 D.
    When should I take a D, and if these three guys are available, who are you taking first?
    Project G-A-P with g x 1.15
    Carlson: 16.1 - 54 - 70.1
    Makar: 16.1 - 53 - 69.1
    Fox: 10.35 - 57 - 67.35
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Here's what I'm looking at for the top of my list right now:
    1 Connor McDavid
    2 Leon Draisaitl
    3 Nikita Kucherov
    4 Nathan MacKinnon
    5 Patrick Kane
    7 Auston Matthews
    6 Artemi Panarin
    8 Mitchell Marner
    9 Brad Marchand
    38 Cale Makar
    42 Adam Fox
    67 Tyson Barrie
    10 Jonathan Huberdeau
    11 Mikko Rantanen
    12 Mark Scheifele
    13 David Pastrnak
    14 Aleksander Barkov
    17 Sebastian Aho
    15 Sidney Crosby
    16 Mark Stone
    18 Mika Zibanejad
    19 Brayden Point
    20 Alex DeBrincat
    21 John Tavares
    24 Alex Ovechkin

    Since I have to draft 4 defenceman, I'm thinking if I'm pick 9-10 I'd go for one of the big D-men.
    I'm also considering Vasilevsky mid first...but no other goalies until much later.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tips:
    1. Make projections for all players (or use Dobber's) and multiply Gx1.15, since every 7th goal, or so, is a game-winner (roughly).
    2. Total up the point output of the following positional ranks:
    81st F
    41st D
    21st G
    (Your league drafts 80F, 40D, 20G... so you are thinking about "who is at the end of this draft at this position if I don't take this best-at-position player now."
    3. You'll draft BPA - but by relative difference to last "counting player". If you are looking at a 75pt F, 45 D, and 65pt G... and the 81/41/21 guys would get 50pt, 25pt, 30pt... then you are going with the goalie, who is the +35 (best) value.


    With only 4 drops, you HAVE to draft healthy players.
    A possible advanced strategy might be to use the Same Night Tool (see the one-year forums) and see if any teams are AHEAD SIGNIFICANTLY in GamesPlayed at various points of the season.

    Say, for some reason, on Feb.1st, Carolina has played 54gp and then next highest NHL team is at 51gp... you might go with CAR players knowing they get their games in on front-end of schedule.
    But, more likely, you could have an injury early on in season, first month or two... so I'd really be looking at teams that lead the NHL in GP at end of October, November.
    Check those to marks for who has most GP played on Oct.31 and Nov.30.
    Specifically, Nov.30, there might be some teams at 20gp and others at 15gp. It happens.


    So... best relative difference players available at your pick, healthy guys, and guys with a heavier front-part-of-season schedule... so that if they get injured, you've maybe gotten a few extra games from them over the NHL-pace.

    Good luck.
    Be sure to post who you draft - simple, yet interesting league.
    The Same Night tool...
    What's the best way to filter just games played for each team by a certain date?
    Edit: i think I figured it out.
    Looks like MTL has the most front loaded schedule at Nov 30 and Feb 1 (54 games at Feb 1). Maybe Suzuki/Caulfield is good guy to target
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Tips:
    1. Make projections for all players (or use Dobber's) and multiply Gx1.15, since every 7th goal, or so, is a game-winner (roughly).
    2. Total up the point output of the following positional ranks:
    81st F
    41st D
    21st G
    (Your league drafts 80F, 40D, 20G... so you are thinking about "who is at the end of this draft at this position if I don't take this best-at-position player now."
    3. You'll draft BPA - but by relative difference to last "counting player". If you are looking at a 75pt F, 45 D, and 65pt G... and the 81/41/21 guys would get 50pt, 25pt, 30pt... then you are going with the goalie, who is the +35 (best) value.


    With only 4 drops, you HAVE to draft healthy players.
    A possible advanced strategy might be to use the Same Night Tool (see the one-year forums) and see if any teams are AHEAD SIGNIFICANTLY in GamesPlayed at various points of the season.

    Say, for some reason, on Feb.1st, Carolina has played 54gp and then next highest NHL team is at 51gp... you might go with CAR players knowing they get their games in on front-end of schedule.
    But, more likely, you could have an injury early on in season, first month or two... so I'd really be looking at teams that lead the NHL in GP at end of October, November.
    Check those to marks for who has most GP played on Oct.31 and Nov.30.
    Specifically, Nov.30, there might be some teams at 20gp and others at 15gp. It happens.


    So... best relative difference players available at your pick, healthy guys, and guys with a heavier front-part-of-season schedule... so that if they get injured, you've maybe gotten a few extra games from them over the NHL-pace.

    Good luck.
    Be sure to post who you draft - simple, yet interesting league.
    Draft is on the 11th. The league agreed to up total drops to 6, so there is some more breathing room now. I don't think that really changes the draft strategy too much.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    If there's not a lot of teams that are much further ahead in games played than another group of teams, I don't see this working out very well. You will just be giving up points on the draft board for a situation that may or may not (though is likely to arise) happen. You will also need quality guys available in FA from those teams in order to pick up.

    So you will also have to look at the teams that will be lacking in GP. How many of them are there? Will there be those quality players left on those teams that won't get drafted. Other GM's in the league might look for those same players to pick up, so a small amount and they might all disappear on you.

    I'd keep those teams in mind when deciding between two players.
    The Team **CHAMPIONS**
    LW(3)- C(3)- RW(3)- D(4)- G(2)- Bench(4)- IR-

    1 Year Point League 11 Teams *Two Year Champion Streak*
    Player- (G)-3 (A)-2 (+/-)-1 (PPP)-1 (SHP)-2 (GWG)-1 (FW)-0.02 (HITS)-0.1 (BLOCKS)-0.2 (SHOTS)-0.05
    Goalie- (W)-4 (GA)- -1 (SV)-0.1 (SHO)-3


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    If there's not a lot of teams that are much further ahead in games played than another group of teams, I don't see this working out very well. You will just be giving up points on the draft board for a situation that may or may not (though is likely to arise) happen. You will also need quality guys available in FA from those teams in order to pick up.

    So you will also have to look at the teams that will be lacking in GP. How many of them are there? Will there be those quality players left on those teams that won't get drafted. Other GM's in the league might look for those same players to pick up, so a small amount and they might all disappear on you.

    I'd keep those teams in mind when deciding between two players.
    At Dec 30, Van and Nashville are at 38 games, a couple teams are at 37, a bunch in the 34-35 range, and Boston at 32.
    Would I be reaching for someone on Van not named Pettersson/Miller/Horvat because of the games played?
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    As I said - checking GP is "advanced strategy".
    That means... if you have a good grasp on everything there is to know about BPA*... you might be able to gain a bit of extra value on a player whose team logs games first.
    *BPA (Best Player Available) is consensus firstmost important thing about drafting. (Since this thread has a specific year mentioned - I'm giving something specific to THIS year that you could consider.)

    As you said, there could be injuries.
    Let's say you have some guy, Bo Horvat... and he gets injured on Dec.12th (say).

    If he's at 29gp... and other NHL teams happen to be at 27gp... and maybe least team is DET with only 24gp played...
    You could consider adding a Detroit player, knowing they are 5gp back.

    Out of that player slot - you could* effectively get 87gp.
    Again... it's just "advanced strategy".
    I didn't say to make that your be-all-end-all strategy... just something to mention.

    (Somebody posts 10min post trying to help and then there's criticism on ONE POINT of it... psh... last advice you'll get from me.)

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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    If there's not a lot of teams that are much further ahead in games played than another group of teams, I don't see this working out very well. You will just be giving up points on the draft board for a situation that may or may not (though is likely to arise) happen. You will also need quality guys available in FA from those teams in order to pick up.

    So you will also have to look at the teams that will be lacking in GP. How many of them are there? Will there be those quality players left on those teams that won't get drafted. Other GM's in the league might look for those same players to pick up, so a small amount and they might all disappear on you.

    I'd keep those teams in mind when deciding between two players.

    FWIW - your only post in this thread is to criticize a portion of my advice.
    Why don't you actually ADD some of your own advice to the OP?
    Or is it just easier to rag on somebody else than to add something helpful?

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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    As I said - checking GP is "advanced strategy".
    That means... if you have a good grasp on everything there is to know about BPA*... you might be able to gain a bit of extra value on a player whose team logs games first.
    *BPA (Best Player Available) is consensus firstmost important thing about drafting. (Since this thread has a specific year mentioned - I'm giving something specific to THIS year that you could consider.)

    As you said, there could be injuries.
    Let's say you have some guy, Bo Horvat... and he gets injured on Dec.12th (say).

    If he's at 29gp... and other NHL teams happen to be at 27gp... and maybe least team is DET with only 24gp played...
    You could consider adding a Detroit player, knowing they are 5gp back.

    Out of that player slot - you could* effectively get 87gp.
    Again... it's just "advanced strategy".
    I didn't say to make that your be-all-end-all strategy... just something to mention.

    (Somebody posts 10min post trying to help and then there's criticism on ONE POINT of it... psh... last advice you'll get from me.)
    Yeah I'm new to the calculations for BPA you posted. I tried putting them through my list, so I have bit of an idea on relative difference to last counting player...but I might end up messing things up with the game played, like you said.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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    Default Re: Draft Advice 2021-22

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    As I said - checking GP is "advanced strategy".
    That means... if you have a good grasp on everything there is to know about BPA*... you might be able to gain a bit of extra value on a player whose team logs games first.
    *BPA (Best Player Available) is consensus firstmost important thing about drafting. (Since this thread has a specific year mentioned - I'm giving something specific to THIS year that you could consider.)

    As you said, there could be injuries.
    Let's say you have some guy, Bo Horvat... and he gets injured on Dec.12th (say).

    If he's at 29gp... and other NHL teams happen to be at 27gp... and maybe least team is DET with only 24gp played...
    You could consider adding a Detroit player, knowing they are 5gp back.

    Out of that player slot - you could* effectively get 87gp.
    Again... it's just "advanced strategy".
    I didn't say to make that your be-all-end-all strategy... just something to mention.

    (Somebody posts 10min post trying to help and then there's criticism on ONE POINT of it... psh... last advice you'll get from me.)
    You talking to me? Sorry, I wasn't criticizing, I was just thinking about the difference between games played. I really appreciate your help here!
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year.
    F: P Kane. O'Reilly, Lindholm, Perron, Laine, Mantha, Voracek, Konecny
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Binnington


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