Predicting Q.Hughes and Petterson's contract.

[Canucks_fan18]

Man two weeks until pre season starts and these two are not signed. I think Vancouver is working hard on bridge deals because with their cap space, they have no choice. Here are my thoughts as a Canucks fan on their fair value and what I think they will get.

Quinn Hughes- Based on past performance, being our best D and potential upside/age. He's probably worth around $6 million fair market value as of right now. Look no further than Tyson Barrie with the Oilers at 4.5 million as a legit comparable. I think all the factors I mention above give Hughes a 1.5 to 2 million premium over Barrie. With that being said I think with the massive overpayments on young D, he will get between 8 to 9 million. I am thinking 8.25. Which I don't think he will ever live up to. Not that he will be bad but I don't think any of the D signed this offseason with exception of maybe Makar will be worth their contract.

Petterson- Calder winner, #1 center and our best offensive player. He's had injury problems and has never been a PPG player thus far. I think fair value is $7 to $7.5 million. Matthew Barzal I like as a comparison. Barzal obviously singed his contract earlier but at 7 million is exactly where Petterson should be. In fact I think Barzal is worth closer to 8 million as a better more proven player than Petterson thus far. This is not to say Petterson won't be as good or better than Barzal but Barzal has proven more complete and durable thus far. I think Petterson will sign the exact same as Hughes so I am going with 8.25 million. If he even just stays healthy, I think he will be worth roughly that value with room to be even better.

Ideally I would like to see both players come in at $7 million. Over pay Hughes a little but maybe under pay Petterson. However, I think they both will be higher. I just hope either one doesn't get 9+ as those contracts will look awful, awfully quickly.

Thoughts?

[CMSpiced]

My guess:

Hughes - 8.2 over 8

Petterson - 7.8 over 3

I dont really agree with your commentary. I think Hughes will certainly live up to the contract. Out of all the ones that are signed this year, I think the best one is Heiskenan. I think he is the best Dman out of them all personally.

Regarding Petterson, I have the opposite comments, I think he is slightly better/proven then Barzel going into their second contracts.

I dont think either of them have warranted 9+, but I do think that they will be able to make a 9+ contract look good, but I also think Petterson has the ability to become one of the best players in the NHL.

[Feenom]

Hughes is a top Dman and will ask to be paid as such so: 6 years 8.5M per season.

EP on the other hand has basically missed last year and should make the Canucks have a slight edge in maybe getting a bit of a discount. Maybe something like 4 years at 6.25M per season. This will give the Canucks some space and make EP prove that he could be one of the NHL’s premiere players. Might get a bit more but not sure how much more.

[Call of Doughty]

Last I heard on Quinn was 8 x 8 years.

[Pengwin7]

I'll actually be quite surprised if Quinn Hughes gets $8m.
His defensive game doesn't warrant it, yet.
If he wants a long-term contract, 8x$7.5m is all he should get at this point.
I think he'd be smart to take a short term $6m or $7m 1 or 2yr contract, prove you can be a PLUS defensemen, then ask for your $9m.

A bit ditto for me on Pettersson.
If you are going to pay two guys at or over $8m... you should be a playoff caliber club.
And if those two get $8m, then Horvat should get $9m.
And then Boeser slides in for $7.5m.

All of a sudden you have the same caliber club as last year... and you've got a shitload tied up in payroll.
VAN really should try to pay their best player first, unfortunate that Horvat is 2 summers away still.

[stevegamer]

VAN really should try to pay their best player first, unfortunate that Horvat is 2 summers away still.

This is a very good point, generally. I will submit that the different positions, especially goalies, don't compare as directly to one another, so you can see different salary tiers by position. Take a team like Tampa who had Stamkos as their main guy, then Kucherov surpassed him, and with Vas they now have two guys at 9.5M. Kucherov mostly set the bar, but if Vas was set on making a little more, it wouldn't have caused skater salary inflation, as Kucherov would've still set the bar there.

I think both of the Vancouver guys should aim a bit shorter on term and dollars, and aim to get more later. They can easily afford the cost of injury insurance against future earnings.

[Moses]

Hughes 2 x $4.75M
Pettersson 8 x $8.5M

[Canucks_fan18]

Dam these predictions are all over the place. Pengwin7's breakdown was the closes to mine. I love Hughes, I think he is the most entertaining player on our team to watch, when he is on he can break out and make that first pass like no other. However, he still hasn't proven himself. There are so many good offensive defensemen that can return similar value for less. Again, look at Barrie.

As for Petterson, I worry about him more to be honest. Even though I have him making slightly more then Hughes in my prediction and value, he's one, with his durability issues that could really make a long term high value contract look bad.

All and all the range needs to be about 12 to 16 million combined depending on term. If they are 12 or less it's a home run even if it's a bridge deal. If it's 16 or more it's a loss even at max term. Hopefully we find out soon.

[lucafen4]

Pettersson - Barzal seems like a really good comp 3x 7m. add inflation & flat cap 3x 7.5.
it helps Vancouver as well. Gets them past Boeser, Horvat & Miller's contracts by one and two years.
Staggering top contracts year to year is just simple smart GM'ing... Benning creates an unnecessary problem with that (jest inserted)
^He seems the most straight forward to do. pretty similar to Barzal's first 3 years.
Also allows you to avoid a log jam of big contracts in the same summer.


Hughes... well, he just watched big money go to Werenski & Makar
Sadly, he's not near as complete as either.

Barrie is only a good comp based on style.
There's nothing else similar IMO. Age, market, RFA/UFA.... apples to oranges.

It will be really interesting what they do with Hughes. He hasn't played a full NHL season yet. handfull of games in 18/19 - Then 2 covid shortened campaigns.
A one year deal makes the most sense really.
He hasn't done enough to justify big money on a long term deal.
And he knows that.
A long term deal will cost Hughes Millions!
One year 5m makes loads of sense.

Pettersson 3x7.5
Hughes 1x5.25

Still puts them over the cap, but manage-ably so.

[tripel]

As noted in another thread with Ferland’s LTIR and a 23 man roster the Canucks have over 16 million for these two guys, which probably not enough to go long-term on both. So do they bridge one or both? Doing one might eat up all the capspace which raises the interesting question of how do they resign Boeser next year? Only low salary guys are coming off the books next year (Motte, Sutter, a bunch of new entry level guys), and they need to pay Rathbone and Juvolevi. Getting rid of Myers and/or Pearson next summer are best options, but not easily done, So this makes me think they’re going to bridge both, and leave a few mil. But the following summer theyll have to pay Horvat, Hoglander and Miller, with only Hamonic cominc off …so likely miller goes. Then the next summer will be when the likely 3 year bridges expire, with almost 13M from Pearson, Myers and Dickinson coming off, so money for Peterson (still RFA), and the following year for Hughes, same.

Peterson 3x7.5
Hughes 4x6.5

Issue will be with the next contracts, when both will need 8 figures…

no UFA years bought in either case.

[Pengwin7]

I'll actually be quite surprised if Quinn Hughes gets $8m.
His defensive game doesn't warrant it, yet.
If he wants a long-term contract, 8x$7.5m is all he should get at this point.
I think he'd be smart to take a short term $6m or $7m 1 or 2yr contract, prove you can be a PLUS defensemen, then ask for your $9m.

A bit ditto for me on Pettersson.
If you are going to pay two guys at or over $8m... you should be a playoff caliber club.

I did pretty well here.
Gonna give myself a B grade.
Neither got $8m... can't give myself an A because neither did 8 years.


lucafen's/Tripel's post has Pettersson at 3x7.5m.
Reports out there have Pettersson at 3x7.7m.
CMspiced nicely picked Pettersson at 3x7.8m.

Nicely done guys... wow!

[Canucks_fan18]

I thought I would revive this thread with the deals now coming in. 7.75 Million for Hughes for 6 and 7.7 million for Petterson for 3. If these numbers flesh out I am very pleased with Benning's work. Fair value I feel without upside for these players is 13.5 million. So basically paying 2 to 3 million more for the potential they could reach.

Well done!